June 2025 Obs/Disco

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah so others are onto it ... no heat wave next week.

Pattern is sputtering to 2 days on, 2 days off... and no confidence there after for next weekend.  The 2 days off could end up being dramatic too... We've gone from 101's in guidance to 68s over eastern NE..

The problem is up over eastern Canada.  From what I can tell, whether or not heat can expand and amplify for something more than merely pedestrian AN is sensitive to what is happening up there.   The flow has been sneakily correcting deeper and deeper with that anachronistic SPV SW of the D-Straight... The Euro at this point has a strong polar jet now curving around underneath - heat in New England seldom succeeds with polar jets in that position.  The idea of a +PP emerging and crushing the fragile heat S is really academic at this point.  The only way to reverse all that is to have that SPV substantially weaken in the guidance.

So, this may have been just another extended red herring ... no harm no foul.  We've spoken about the confidence risks already.  Plenty of time and this is all acceptable adjusting at this range.  I will say, the ensemble means are still flatter with the flow up there, however - so ...it's not impossible that the operational versions are a bit too amplified with that circulation structuring up there.   We'll have to see.

 

Mid range attenuation not of just winter threats, but of anything remotely interesting, though this one I'll take.

[Typhoon Tip]

27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sunday- Wednesday is 90’s to near hundred Tuesday . 4 days 

This is not a correct assessment based upon all present indicators  ...

it's okay bro.  It's only mid June.  We'll have other shots at this over the next 6 to 8 weeks  ( before the GFS routines begins snowing at D10 in mid August LOL )

[40/70 Benchmark]

Kind of a contnuation of that buregeoning theme from last cold season of a colder se Canada...lets keep that going into next winter.

[Damage In Tolland]

20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This is not a correct assessment based upon all present indicators  ...

it's okay bro.  It's only mid June.  We'll have other shots at this over the next 6 to 8 weeks  ( before the GFS routines begins snowing at D10 in mid August LOL )

Every piece of guidance has 3-4 days of 90+

[weatherwiz]

We shall be seeing an enhanced risk tomorrow for at least western MA and western CT

[weatherwiz]

I think the HRRR is underplaying aerial coverage tomorrow

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Every piece of guidance has 3-4 days of 90+

Perhaps you are unclear on the concept of "not based upon all present indicators  ... "

 

[weatherwiz]

Storm mode will evolve to be linear quickly and flow aloft is predominately unidirectional, however, enough turning of the llvl winds that there is certainly a risk for an embedded tornado or two, particularly within the Hudson and Connecticut Valley where the backed flow will be enhanced some. Also looks like a bit of a theta-e ridge which will locally enhanced llvl CAPE and decent sfc vorticity. The line arrives coinciding with an increase of the LLJ as well and models want to hang around the steeper lapse rates. If we can get discrete cells ahead of the line (big if) there will be risk for multiple tornadoes. 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Mid range attenuation not of just winter threats, but of anything remotely interesting, though this one I'll take.

Yeah... I'm kind of Doctor J vs Mr Hyde when comes to heat.  I'm utterly fascinated by the "big heat" synoptics, just like I am for big winter events. 

I don't like to live in them.  

SO ...admittedly.  That said, it is not like rooting them on, tho.  I believe I'm morally okay with it, because as a science curiosity, that's where my interest in them is.  I'm not like Kevin, who roots on the dystopian horror of people cooking in the streets from the confines of his well-A.C.ed, model interpretive "boudoir".

They have particular identities.   Especially in these recent eras of the ongoing CC/attribution stuff, when they are occurring with greater frequency all over the world, and are dangerous ... ( more deaths than all other weather event types combined), there's definitely value in learning how to use the guidance.    etc etc. 

[crownweather]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I think the HRRR is underplaying aerial coverage tomorrow

Agreed.  I've noticed over the last couple of months or so that the meso models have under forecast strong/severe thunderstorm events for Southern New England.  Models then start playing catch-up about 12 hours before the event start & continue playing catch-up right up to game time. 
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I think the MAN next door is playing hard to get and wants some areola coverage tomorrow

Maybe a bit of chocoloate sauce dripped on the nape?

[weatherwiz]

Just now, crownweather said:

Agreed.  I've noticed over the last couple of months or so that the meso models have under forecast strong/severe thunderstorm events for Southern New England.  Models then start playing catch-up about 12 hours before the event start & continue playing catch-up right up to game time. 
 

Yeah not sure what is playing into the HRRR but we have decent height falls tomorrow, increasing dynamics, steep lapse rates, and moderate instability. I know the main forcing/cold front is west...but more times than not our convection develops with the pre-frontal trough and not the actual cold front. But I would not be shocked to see the HRRR ramp up as we get closer. Same thing with the mid-western states...HRRR I think underplaying, especially Mississippi Valley 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Perhaps you are unclear on the concept of "not based upon all present indicators  ... "

 

There is strong telconnector and multi-ensemble convergence on a heavy round of psychosis.

[weatherwiz]

I foresee me working Ray's weenie OT over the next two days  Finally some exciting severe to post about

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

I foresee me working Ray's weenie OT over the next two days  Finally some exciting severe to post about

[CoastalWx]

Wiz Gone Wild

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

well that was not phrased properly  

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

well that was not phrased properly  

Takes all the fun out of it when there is nothing to alter in the quote...I felt dirty.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks like Kev has been stricken with another round of emoji-dementia.

[dryslot]

Glad we mini split after looking at next weeks modeled temps.

[Damage In Tolland]

A nice steady “under the radar “ rain falling here again today . Doesn’t look like any sun unless it’s late day . 

[kdxken]

24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

A nice steady “under the radar “ rain falling here again today . Doesn’t look like any sun unless it’s late day . 

Blizz tried to tell you.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Blizz tried to tell you.

Y’all had 6 straight days of doom and clouds. Not just 2 midweek sandwiched between beauty 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Y’all had 6 straight days of doom and clouds. Not just 2 midweek sandwiched between beauty 

Yesterday was decent until 3 here, and I think the aftn improves after 1-2p. Could be worse. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

8 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Blizz tried to tell you.

We did. They deny and spin, but it hasn’t been a good week on the whole. 
 

Next week looks like 2 hot days and back to mediocrity, a lot like winter. Have to maximize the 2 day pattern hiccup or you get nothing.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yesterday was decent until 3 here, and I think the aftn improves after 1-2p. Could be worse. 

Come on, it was cloudy all day with spitting showers. I drove down through Boston and it was not nice out.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Come on, it was cloudy all day with spitting showers. I drove down through Boston and it was not nice out.

It was partly sunny here until 2. Then after 3 off and on showers. Not one drop fell prior. You're depressing AF.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Yesterday and today have been rainy and/or drizzly here.   Helping the lawn and skeeters 

We cook tomorrow. 

[CoastalWx]

 saved me. Even now it's trying to brighten and just a passing sprinkle earlier. Just cloudy and meh now.

[CoastalWx]

71/68. Should hit upper 70s I think.