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June 2025 discussion-obs: Summerlike


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86/74

Pretty uncommon for this part of the south shore to have no sea breeze all day and temps this warm this late. Would be interesting to see if we're cooler this time tomorrow

Most models have a sea breeze developing in the early afternoon, will effect mostly NYC and points east

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Clouds through 4PM and still made it to 90 here, in most placed even with almost a full day of clouds forecasts highs were only missed by 6 - 8 degrees.  Had we partly cloudy/ sunny conditions - highs would have over performed in my opinion.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Highs

Clouds in the way  for most of the day with a decent comeback later in the PM 

 

EWR: 92
ISP: 91
JFK: 91
TEB: 91
LGA: 90
ACY: 90
New Brnswck: 88
BLM: 88
NYC: 88
PHL: 88
TTN: 87

90 here. My forecast high was 91 for today. Not a huge bust…

the winds were under forecast big time. Took the boat out and it was blowing 25-30 mph, got soaked. They did slacken in the evening, but it was really blowing earlier 

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Just now, Picard said:

Well they had it half right, it got very sticky and warm here in the late afternoon - standing over the grill was brutal.  Weather station read a 101 heat index around 5:30 pm with a dewpoint of 78.

Correct. Temps verified east of the city but maybe not west and southwest. The rain and wind forecast was horrendous 

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7 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Clouds through 4PM and still made it to 90 here, in most placed even with almost a full day of clouds forecasts highs were only missed by 6 - 8 degrees.  Had we partly cloudy/ sunny conditions - highs would have over performed in my opinion.

 

 

Temps may over perform tomorrow then. Widespread 100s

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On a side note the ECMWF AI Ensembles package will launch July

 

https://events.ecmwf.int/event/487/

 

On Tuesday 1 July 2025, the first version of the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS) Ensemble model will be released and supported operationally. This release marks another milestone in ECMWF history, as AIFS ENS v1 will be the first AIFS ensemble model to be made fully operational.

AIFS ENS, v1 model will not be an upgrade of currently experimental diffusion AIFS ENS model. It is a first version of a new model that is trained using a version of the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS), a loss function that helps ensure the forecasts are both accurate and well-calibrated.

In addition to operationalisation of AIFS ENS, v1 will bring several new data and graphical probabilistic prodcuts available in the EMCWF Open charts platform.

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Just now, uofmiami said:

5 degree bust for me in the point & click. 93 and only got to 88. 

Winds were more northerly than expected. For this reason islip and westhampton were in the low 90s and the north shore cooler. Wasn’t hot at all in Lloyd Harbor today. 

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Similar ridge position and forecasted 850 MB temps (100s)

Park of course missed , especially having come out of a very wet June 

 

2013



7/18:

EWR: 101
LGA: 100
JFK: 100
NYC: 98


7/19:

EWR: 100
LGA: 100
NYC: 96
JFK: 95

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