June 2025 discussion-obs: Summerlike

[WestBabylonWeather]

Safe to say we get a pattern change by next weekend. 

[winterwarlock]

Every week for the last month we have heard..."this will be the last one of these til October..."

 

Yet every week is wash rinse repeat and now 2 days of clouds wet and drab  turn into 4 days spilling into Monday and Tuesday and now lucky to see late sun on Wednesday 

 

Make it stop as the #yearwithoutasummer rolls on

[winterwarlock]

.56 imby today

[winterwx21]

Got 0.66" here today. Temps stuck in the mid 60s during the afternoon in mid June -- dreadful weather. 

[JerseyWx]

2 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

Every week for the last month we have heard..."this will be the last one of these til October..."

 

Yet every week is wash rinse repeat and now 2 days of clouds wet and drab  turn into 4 days spilling into Monday and Tuesday and now lucky to see late sun on Wednesday 

 

Make it stop as the #yearwithoutasummer rolls on

As a whole, it's been a crappy weather year so far.  So many days were either windy, grey, or had rain.  Stuck in the 60s in the middle of June cannot be much worse.  We got caught up in this revolving pattern where a couple days are nice, and maybe even AN temp wise, but then we pay for it with crap like this.  Last year my pool was already open for 2 weeks, this year, I haven't even looked at it.

I do see some 90s in the future though and look forward to July where it has to be hot, right? 

[ForestHillWx]

Every day is a blessing, regardless of the weather; granted having young kids stuck in doors can be a challenge. Happy Father's Day to those of us on this thread!

If those 10-day progs pan out, I will miss the relatively benign weather we have had up to this point; as will all of our power bills. 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

Every week for the last month we have heard..."this will be the last one of these til October..."

 

Yet every week is wash rinse repeat and now 2 days of clouds wet and drab  turn into 4 days spilling into Monday and Tuesday and now lucky to see late sun on Wednesday 

 

Make it stop as the #yearwithoutasummer rolls on

There is one way, get rid of at least half of the shitty water vapor from the atmosphere.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, ForestHillWx said:

Every day is a blessing, regardless of the weather; granted having young kids stuck in doors can be a challenge. Happy Father's Day to those of us on this thread!

If those 10-day progs pan out, I will miss the relatively benign weather we have had up to this point; as will all of our power bills. 

this is shitty weather, power bills, what about those of us who had our heat on?

We need our summer back and it's coming back and anyone who whines about wanting rain before September, I will pounce on them like a tiger on a lamb.

[SnoSki14]

Huge 100+ heat potential next week from GFS/Euro. 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Got 0.66" here today. Temps stuck in the mid 60s during the afternoon in mid June -- dreadful weather. 

the only water I want to see for the next three months is the water coming out of my hose and the water I drink and wash with.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Huge 100+ heat potential next week from GFS/Euro. 

Good, let it burn.....

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

We could get our 100s

Yes and here too, no more of this sea breeze nonsense.

 

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Good, let it burn.....

Too much heat will also ruin weekend plans. Can't do much when it's that hot but think core of heat will fall early next week (Mon-Wed). 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Too much heat will also ruin weekend plans. Can't do much when it's that hot. 

hopefully it's dry heat... how long is this supposed to last?

if it's like July 2010, we had dew points in the 40s (45-48) when it was over 100.

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

hopefully it's dry heat... how long is this supposed to last?

if it's like July 2010, we had dew points in the 40s (45-48) when it was over 100.

It will not be a dry heat. Euro has dews in the 70s. This is steambath weather. 

[LibertyBell]

38 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It will not be a dry heat. Euro has dews in the 70s. This is steambath weather. 

 Would 1980 be a good analog for what's about to happen? A rainy and cool first three weeks of June (record cool lows on Tony's daily records posts have been from 1980 lately) and an abrupt shift to hot and steamy from June 20th to September 20th.  Although the epicenter of the big heat was St Louis that year, NYC had their hottest ever 62 day couplet (July-August) with both months averaging 80 or higher and August 1980 was our hottest August on record!

[bluewave]

10 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

We could get our 100s

Yeah, the 500mb heights and 850mb temperature forecasts would suggest our first 100° of the season would be possible for the usual warm spots. But a wrinkle may be whether the ridge elongates too much into Canada. Notice how the models have a high over Canada and Bermuda. So there could be a subtle backdoor front nearby.

If the Bermuda High wins out than the first 100° for places like Newark could be possible. But if the high to the north is too strong, then more onshore flow in later runs east of NYC and perhaps the 100° potential over interior NJ.

We probably won’t know for sure until the period gets under 120 hrs out. But we should at least see mid 90s as a floor. And be could get closer to 100° if the ridge is flatter with more westerly flow.

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

59 / 56 cloudy and cool.   48 more hours in the muck with mainly light showers/rain amounting to another 0.25 at most.  Clears out later on Tuesday now and that day looks lost to cooler/cloudy conditions through most the afternoon.  By Wed sun returns and it should quickly warm as front comes back north it could trigger scattered storms later Wed.  Thu first (2nd/3rd) 90s for many with surge of heat, additional showers/storms Thu night possible.   Heat builds north and east by the 20th and into the weed of the 22nd and beyond.

 

6/14 - 6/17 : Cloudy cool
6/18 - 6/19: warm up (90s on Thu) storms possibility each day in the pm/evening
6/20 - Beyond : Heat builds in - sustained ridging into the east

 

Clouds magnet has reloaded not much in the way of breaks or poked of sun today

 

[wdrag]

Good Sunday morning,  Heat is obviously coming now and interiors slated for an above normal number of 90+ days in June.  

Thursday may be a heat advisory afternoon for interior NJ (EWR etc).  Also mixed layer Cape over 1500J with Bulk Shear >30 kits suggests potential for SVR. Timing timing timing. 

Then the heat wave, first of the year probably for most of us except water influenced coastal spots (Sunday-approximately around Wednesday of next week), possibly longer with widespread heat advisory conditions early next week, possibly a heat Warning coming for some spots.  Interestsingly enough while ML CAPE is high early next week, Bulk Shear is low so any SVR Thunder may be more isolated, local convergence initiated. 

 

Recent abo e normal rainfall and another event coming before the heat... that will help with higher dews and possibly lower max temp potential a deg or two. Nevertheless, HOT looks to be on the way. 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 101 (1994)
NYC: 96 (1994)
LGA: 96 (1988)
JFK: 93 (1988)


Lows:

EWR: 48 (1933)
NYC: 48 (1933)
LGA: 54 (1951)
JFK: 51 (1965)

Historical:

 

1662 - A fast was held at Salem MA with prayers for rain, and the Lord gave a speedy answer. (David Ludlum)

1879 - McKinney ND received 7.7 inches of rain in 24 hours, a state record. (The Weather Channel)

 

1884: Boston, Massachusetts recorded its highest pressure 30.57 inches of mercury for the month of June. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

1896 - The temperature at Fort Mojave, CA, soared to 127 degrees, the hottest reading of record for June for the U.S. The low that day was 97 degrees. Morning lows of 100 degrees were reported on the 12th, 14th and 16th of the month. (The Weather Channel)

 

1940: A high temperature of 116° at Las Vegas, NV set their all-time hottest June reading. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1953 - Dust devils are usually rather benign weather phenomena, however, two boys were injured by one near Prescott AZ. One of the boys suffered a black eye, and the other boy had two vertabrae fractured by wind-blown debris. (The Weather Channel)

1957 - East Saint Louis was deluged with 16.54 inches of rain in 24 hours, a record for the state of Illinois. (The Weather Channel)

 

1959: On this day Mt. Mansfield, near Stowe, Vermont, received four inches of snow. (The Farmer's Almanac)

1960: A heat burst struck Kopperl, TX, located about 50 miles southwest of Fort Worth from a dying thunderstorm. As the air sank, it warmed to around 140°. When the heat burst struck the ground, winds fanned out at over 75 mph. People had to wrap themselves in wet blankets to protect themselves from the heat. All crops were destroyed by the heat. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1963: Heavy rain and hail raved parts of the northern Colorado Rockies. In southeast Denver, heavy rain flooded homes and streets. Hail to a depth of 4 inches on the ground stripped trees and drifted in to depths of 3 to 4 feet in places. Flood waters were as deep as 19 feet in places trapping many cars. Many creeks ran over their banks. A cell passed over Denver dropping 4 inches of rain in just 90 minutes. Damage totaled near a million dollars. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1968: Severe thunderstorms brought heavy rain and high winds to much of the western two-thirds of Oklahoma. Winds gusting more than 70 mph dislodged a home from its foundation in Lawton, while winds stronger than 100 mph did extensive damage in Chickasha. The exact wind speed in Chickasha was not determined; because the wind gauge could only measure winds up to 100 mph. Torrential rain amounted to 7 inches in just a few hours near Loyal. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1975: Carlisle, Tex.--An 11-year-old girl was burned to death in a fire caused by lightning. The lightning struck a window air conditioner and the home exploded into a blaze of fire. Another girl was injured. Plymouth, Ind.--Lightning killed a 55-year-old man as he was taking shelter under a pine tree on a golf course. (Ref. Lightning-The Underrated Killer.pdf)

1977: Heavy rains fell for two consecutive days across east central South Dakota through the 16th. Thunderstorms would develop and then move across the same areas repeatedly in what is called a train echo pattern. Rain amounts in the area included 6.9 inches at Watertown, 6.5 inches at Volga, and 7.5 inches at Bruce. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1978: This was a rough day across portions of western and central South Dakota. A tornado touched down in Lemmon then skipped through town causing considerable damage. Numerous severe storms tore through central South Dakota with hail as large as baseballs and winds to 80 miles an hour causing $20 to $25 million dollars in damage across 15 counties. Several counties were declared disaster areas by the Governor of South Dakota. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1986: 91 °F - Heart of June heat wave with 8 of first 16 days 90° or more in Washington, DC. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1987 - Thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced severe weather in the northwestern U.S. A tornado damaged five homes and destroyed a barn near Salmon ID. It lifted a metal shed 100 feet into the air, and deposited it 100 yards away. Hail an inch and a half in diameter caused ten million dollars damage to automobiles at Nampa ID. (The National Weather Channel) (Storm Data)

1988 - Severe thunderstorms in the Central High Plains Region spawned five tornadoes around Denver, CO, in just one hour. A strong (F-3) tornado in southern Denver injured seven persons and caused ten million dollars damage. Twenty-six cities in the eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. The high of 97 degrees at Portland ME was a record for June. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather over the Southern and Middle Atlantic Coast States. The thunderstorms spawned eight tornadoes, including strong (F-3) tornadoes which injured three persons at Mountville PA and four persons at Columbia, PA. There were 111 reports of large hail and damaging winds, including wind gusts to 80 mph at Norfolk, VA, and Hogback Mountain, SC. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989: A late-season frost occurred over parts of the Midwest. Scattered areas of frost caused considerable damage to the corn crop in low-lying areas across northern Iowa. Damage was estimated to be around $2 million dollars. The hardest hit counties were in Winnebago, Kosuth and Hancock Counties. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1991: The second largest volcanic eruption of the 20th Century began as Mt. Pinatubo injected 15 to 30 million tons of sulfur dioxide 100,000 feet into the atmosphere. 343 people were killed in the Philippines as a result of the eruptions, and 200,000 were left homeless. Material from the explosion would spread around the globe, leading to climate changes worldwide as the sun's energy was blocked out and global temperatures cooled by as much as one degree Fahrenheit. 1992 was globally one of the coldest since the 1970s.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Euro is also in alignment

 

[SACRUS]

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the 500mb heights and 850mb temperature forecasts would suggest our first 100° of the season would be possible for the usual warm spots. But a wrinkle may be whether the ridge elongates too much into Canada. Notice how the models have a high over Canada and Bermuda. So there could be a subtle backdoor front nearby.

If the Bermuda High wins out than the first 100° for places like Newark could be possible. But it the high to the north is too strong, then more onshore flow in later runs east of NYC and perhaps the 100° potential over interior NJ.

We probably won’t know for sure until the period gets under 120 hrs out. But we should at least see mid 90s as a floor. And be could get closer to 100° if the ridge is flatter with more westerly flow.

 

 

 

Astonishingly we had similar progression with the signal for the same period, last year which lead to the strong heat in NJ 6/20 - 6/27.  The center of the ridge will be key as you detail if those east of NJ continue with the recent tendency for onshore or if its full blast westrlry

[SACRUS]

 

Thu night into Fri morning

 

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Astonishingly we had similar progression with the signal for the same period, last year which lead to the strong heat in NJ 6/20 - 6/27.  The center of the ridge will be key as you detail if those east of NJ continue with the recent tendency for onshore or if its full blast westrlry

last year *heat* didn't even register with me lol.

It has to be hot everywhere otherwise it's not real heat.

[LibertyBell]

40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the 500mb heights and 850mb temperature forecasts would suggest our first 100° of the season would be possible for the usual warm spots. But a wrinkle may be whether the ridge elongates too much into Canada. Notice how the models have a high over Canada and Bermuda. So there could be a subtle backdoor front nearby.

If the Bermuda High wins out than the first 100° for places like Newark could be possible. But if the high to the north is too strong, then more onshore flow in later runs east of NYC and perhaps the 100° potential over interior NJ.

We probably won’t know for sure until the period gets under 120 hrs out. But we should at least see mid 90s as a floor. And be could get closer to 100° if the ridge is flatter with more westerly flow.

 

 

Does this indicate big heat for July too? In my experience we don't hit 100 in June (it has never happened here before and in NYC it hasn't happened since 1966), but I predict if we get to at least 95 in June we will definitely have multiple days over 100 in July.

[LibertyBell]

31 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Good Sunday morning,  Heat is obviously coming now and interiors slated for an above normal number of 90+ days in June.  

Thursday may be a heat advisory afternoon for interior NJ (EWR etc).  Also mixed layer Cape over 1500J with Bulk Shear >30 kits suggests potential for SVR. Timing timing timing. 

Then the heat wave, first of the year probably for most of us except water influenced coastal spots (Sunday-approximately around Wednesday of next week), possibly longer with widespread heat advisory conditions early next week, possibly a heat Warning coming for some spots.  Interestsingly enough while ML CAPE is high early next week, Bulk Shear is low so any SVR Thunder may be more isolated, local convergence initiated. 

 

Recent abo e normal rainfall and another event coming before the heat... that will help with higher dews and possibly lower max temp potential a deg or two. Nevertheless, HOT looks to be on the way. 

This heat is just the appetizer, Walt.  I expect it will dry out the soil and give all of us 95+ temperatures. I expect the real deal to happen in early July when we will all have multiple days over 100!

 

[LibertyBell]

23 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 101 (1994)
NYC: 96 (1994)
LGA: 96 (1988)
JFK: 93 (1988)


Lows:

EWR: 48 (1933)
NYC: 48 (1933)
LGA: 54 (1951)
JFK: 51 (1965)

Historical:

 

1662 - A fast was held at Salem MA with prayers for rain, and the Lord gave a speedy answer. (David Ludlum)

1879 - McKinney ND received 7.7 inches of rain in 24 hours, a state record. (The Weather Channel)

 

1884: Boston, Massachusetts recorded its highest pressure 30.57 inches of mercury for the month of June. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

1896 - The temperature at Fort Mojave, CA, soared to 127 degrees, the hottest reading of record for June for the U.S. The low that day was 97 degrees. Morning lows of 100 degrees were reported on the 12th, 14th and 16th of the month. (The Weather Channel)

 

1940: A high temperature of 116° at Las Vegas, NV set their all-time hottest June reading. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1953 - Dust devils are usually rather benign weather phenomena, however, two boys were injured by one near Prescott AZ. One of the boys suffered a black eye, and the other boy had two vertabrae fractured by wind-blown debris. (The Weather Channel)

1957 - East Saint Louis was deluged with 16.54 inches of rain in 24 hours, a record for the state of Illinois. (The Weather Channel)

 

1959: On this day Mt. Mansfield, near Stowe, Vermont, received four inches of snow. (The Farmer's Almanac)

1960: A heat burst struck Kopperl, TX, located about 50 miles southwest of Fort Worth from a dying thunderstorm. As the air sank, it warmed to around 140°. When the heat burst struck the ground, winds fanned out at over 75 mph. People had to wrap themselves in wet blankets to protect themselves from the heat. All crops were destroyed by the heat. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1963: Heavy rain and hail raved parts of the northern Colorado Rockies. In southeast Denver, heavy rain flooded homes and streets. Hail to a depth of 4 inches on the ground stripped trees and drifted in to depths of 3 to 4 feet in places. Flood waters were as deep as 19 feet in places trapping many cars. Many creeks ran over their banks. A cell passed over Denver dropping 4 inches of rain in just 90 minutes. Damage totaled near a million dollars. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1968: Severe thunderstorms brought heavy rain and high winds to much of the western two-thirds of Oklahoma. Winds gusting more than 70 mph dislodged a home from its foundation in Lawton, while winds stronger than 100 mph did extensive damage in Chickasha. The exact wind speed in Chickasha was not determined; because the wind gauge could only measure winds up to 100 mph. Torrential rain amounted to 7 inches in just a few hours near Loyal. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1975: Carlisle, Tex.--An 11-year-old girl was burned to death in a fire caused by lightning. The lightning struck a window air conditioner and the home exploded into a blaze of fire. Another girl was injured. Plymouth, Ind.--Lightning killed a 55-year-old man as he was taking shelter under a pine tree on a golf course. (Ref. Lightning-The Underrated Killer.pdf)

1977: Heavy rains fell for two consecutive days across east central South Dakota through the 16th. Thunderstorms would develop and then move across the same areas repeatedly in what is called a train echo pattern. Rain amounts in the area included 6.9 inches at Watertown, 6.5 inches at Volga, and 7.5 inches at Bruce. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1978: This was a rough day across portions of western and central South Dakota. A tornado touched down in Lemmon then skipped through town causing considerable damage. Numerous severe storms tore through central South Dakota with hail as large as baseballs and winds to 80 miles an hour causing $20 to $25 million dollars in damage across 15 counties. Several counties were declared disaster areas by the Governor of South Dakota. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1986: 91 °F - Heart of June heat wave with 8 of first 16 days 90° or more in Washington, DC. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1987 - Thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced severe weather in the northwestern U.S. A tornado damaged five homes and destroyed a barn near Salmon ID. It lifted a metal shed 100 feet into the air, and deposited it 100 yards away. Hail an inch and a half in diameter caused ten million dollars damage to automobiles at Nampa ID. (The National Weather Channel) (Storm Data)

1988 - Severe thunderstorms in the Central High Plains Region spawned five tornadoes around Denver, CO, in just one hour. A strong (F-3) tornado in southern Denver injured seven persons and caused ten million dollars damage. Twenty-six cities in the eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. The high of 97 degrees at Portland ME was a record for June. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather over the Southern and Middle Atlantic Coast States. The thunderstorms spawned eight tornadoes, including strong (F-3) tornadoes which injured three persons at Mountville PA and four persons at Columbia, PA. There were 111 reports of large hail and damaging winds, including wind gusts to 80 mph at Norfolk, VA, and Hogback Mountain, SC. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989: A late-season frost occurred over parts of the Midwest. Scattered areas of frost caused considerable damage to the corn crop in low-lying areas across northern Iowa. Damage was estimated to be around $2 million dollars. The hardest hit counties were in Winnebago, Kosuth and Hancock Counties. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1991: The second largest volcanic eruption of the 20th Century began as Mt. Pinatubo injected 15 to 30 million tons of sulfur dioxide 100,000 feet into the atmosphere. 343 people were killed in the Philippines as a result of the eruptions, and 200,000 were left homeless. Material from the explosion would spread around the globe, leading to climate changes worldwide as the sun's energy was blocked out and global temperatures cooled by as much as one degree Fahrenheit. 1992 was globally one of the coldest since the 1970s.

 

1991: The second largest volcanic eruption of the 20th Century began as Mt. Pinatubo injected 15 to 30 million tons of sulfur dioxide 100,000 feet into the atmosphere. 343 people were killed in the Philippines as a result of the eruptions, and 200,000 were left homeless. Material from the explosion would spread around the globe, leading to climate changes worldwide as the sun's energy was blocked out and global temperatures cooled by as much as one degree Fahrenheit. 1992 was globally one of the coldest since the 1970s.

 

This was a real tragedy, when we learn to control volcanoes and earthquakes we won't have such tragedies anymore.

[SACRUS]

34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Does this indicate big heat for July too? In my experience we don't hit 100 in June (it has never happened here before and in NYC it hasn't happened since 1966), but I predict if we get to at least 95 in June we will definitely have multiple days over 100 in July.

You should preface that with Central park in NYC - LGA hit 100 in June in 2021 (6/30).

[SACRUS]

38 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

last year *heat* didn't even register with me lol.

It has to be hot everywhere otherwise it's not real heat.

 

Was much more pronounced west of the city during that June heatwave where EWR and C/N NJ hit 90 (9 of 10 days) with maxes of 100, 97, 98,99, 98 so the folks west of there felt it.

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

You should preface that with Central park in NYC - LGA hit 100 in June in 2021 (6/30).

I think LGA numbers are inflated because of dense road traffic in that area (I see it all the time with my car thermometer, leaving Manhattan and entering Queens via the mid town tunnel the temperature rises at least 5 degrees and falls back down again when I get onto the Grand Central.) I've always thought both highs and lows in that area are highly suspect.

Maybe NYC is not properly sited either, in which case, an average of all 4 sites (EWR,NYC,LGA,JFK) should be used for both the highs and the lows.

BTW this extreme traffic issue in northern Queens started after the 90s.