June 2025 discussion-obs: Summerlike

[wdrag]

Might be a little early with this monthly... but I like the pattern for summer warmth (daily 80s at least inland the first week of June). 5H Weakness in our area suggests cool frontal passages and a chance for frontal showers/tstorms so drought hopefully doesn't return in June. 

GEFS from 00z/23 through June 25 suggests ridge centered NMex/TEX with zonal flow N USA and maybe periodic chance at 90F with a strong TStorm near CFP? 

Long ranging is difficult for ensembles.  Others may want to add EC suite etc outlooks for June.   Monthly trend is warmer than the 30 year average so I dont see a reason deviate.  Don? Other's? 

[wdrag]

So the interior daily 80s delays a couple days into the first week of June but by June 3-4 they should be going and some of the modeling implies spotty 90 interior possible Friday-6th-at least Sunday 8th.  AC will be working a bit for the interior by next weekend.   00z/28 GEFS is more aggressive with the warming so we'll monitor. 

[wdrag]

Continuing with expectations as described above posts.  GEFS continues more aggressive with the warming than the EPS. 

[wdrag]

Presuming I get time, I'll add CPC June Outlook and the D8-14, week 3-4 guidance around 7-8P. 

[wdrag]

And the D 6-10, 8-14, Week 3-4 as issued yesterday May 30 for June, and the June outlook issued May 15 which I think gets updated in the next day or two.

[wdrag]

TROPICAL: Personal opinion is to follow the Tropical portion of AM WX...  just too early to get excited. I dont see any clear GEFS/EPS signal for an event GMEX-FL coast yet. 

[wdrag]

Will be interested in knowing statistically what summer (JJA) month will see the greatest departure from normal.  I saw Don's post on +1 summer.  Not sure this is substantial but one of these months might show up larger departure.  

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Will be interested in knowing statistically what summer (JJA) month will see the greatest departure from normal.  I saw Don's post on +1 summer.  Not sure this is substantial but one of these months might show up larger departure.  

It also depends if it's actually a hot summer with a lot of 90 degree days or merely a very warm summer with artificially inflated averages because of higher mins.

 

[JerseyWx]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Will be interested in knowing statistically what summer (JJA) month will see the greatest departure from normal.  I saw Don's post on +1 summer.  Not sure this is substantial but one of these months might show up larger departure.  

As am I.  Curious too if we have a late summer and into fall heat push, so maybe higher departures then.

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

As am I.  Curious too if we have a late summer and into fall heat push, so maybe higher departures then.

I'm very wary of *departures* if it doesn't come with a lot of 90 degree highs it doesn't mean much.

 

[wdrag]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm very wary of *departures* if it doesn't come with a lot of 90 degree highs it doesn't mean much.

 

Maybe not in the country but different in the city... less relief!  I think departures are important, be it night or day.  We need to continue reviewing. 

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Maybe not in the country but different in the city... less relief!  I think departures are important, be it night or day.  We need to continue reviewing. 

it's nicer if there are more 90 degree days and fewer days with temperatures staying above 70 at night because that means lower humidity and drier more refreshing weather.

 

[Sundog]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it's nicer if there are more 90 degree days and fewer days with temperatures staying above 70 at night because that means lower humidity and drier more refreshing weather.

 

I'd take an average high of 95 degrees if I knew that when the Sun went down we'd quickly drop down into the low 70s and our overnight lows were near 60. 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I'd take an average high of 95 degrees if I knew that when the Sun went down we'd quickly drop down into the low 70s and our overnight lows were near 60. 

That does sound ideal.  I wonder if that's what happened in 1944 when we set the record for 8 straight days with a high temperature of 95+ or higher.  Such an amazing record and we haven't ever come close to matching it since.

 

[LibertyBell]

52 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I'd take an average high of 95 degrees if I knew that when the Sun went down we'd quickly drop down into the low 70s and our overnight lows were near 60. 

I found the 8 day 95+ 1944 super heatwave

Note there was another heatwave before that which was 9 days long.

1953 was even more extreme with a 12 day super heatwave (our longest ever) and a 7 day heatwave, with 4 100+ temps (2 in each one lol.) Look at this torrid stretch in 1953 late August and early September 98, 99, 98, 100, 97, 102 lol.... it was sandwiched by two 94 degree days if those were each 1 degree higher it would have tied 1944 for longest streak of 95+.  The streak in 1944 was 97, 102, 97, 96, 95, 95, 96, 95

2002 also had two long heatwaves, 9 and 8 days long.  The 8 day one had a 5 day streak of 95+: 96, 95, 95, 96, 97 .... that was our last 5 day streak of 95+ and also our last heatwave of 7+ days!

The July 1993 10 day super hot streak  (with 5 straight days of 95+ and 3 straight days of 100+: 98, 100, 101, 102, 97) I boldened was the hottest and longest heatwave I remember (I recall the July 1999 11 day streak too but it wasn't as hot as it was earlier in July when we hit 102 on back to back days.) One thing I do remember well about July 1999 was that it tied July 1993 for most 90 degree days in one month (20).

The 90s were known for these super heatwaves, 1991 had a 7 day heatwave with 5 straight days of 95+:  96, 99, 96, 100, 102.  The year with the most 95+ days was 1955 with 16.

That July 1977 9 day super heatwave with 5 straight days of 95+ is also noteworthy: 96, 98, 97, 100, 102.... after a brief reprieve of 92 it shot back up to 104 (our second hottest temperature on record, now tied with July 2011) for the last day of the heatwave !!

 

Longest Heat Waves - 90 degrees + in a row (through March 10)
Days	Dates	Temperatures
12	August 24 - Sept 4, 1953	91,91,91,94,98,99,98,100,97,102,94,90
11	July 23 - August 2, 1999	92,97,97,93,96,97,93,92,90,98,90
10	July 7 - 16, 1993 August 4 - 13, 1896	98,100,101,102,97,94,94,91,90,90 90,94,92,97,95,98,94,96,93,90
9	August 11 - 19, 2002 July 13 - 21, 1977 July 6 - 14, 1966 July 5 - 13, 1944	92,96,98,95,92,93,94,94,94 93,92,96,98,97,100, 102,92,104 91,93,91,91,91,94,99,101,95 93,94,91,94,92,91,93,93,91
8	July 29 - August 5, 2002 August 2 - 9, 1980 August 28 - Sept 4, 1973 August 10 - 17, 1944 June 26 - July 3, 1901	96, 95, 95, 96, 97, 90, 92, 91 91, 92, 91, 94, 93, 94, 96, 95 98, 95, 98, 94, 95, 94, 96, 93 97, 102, 97, 96, 95, 95, 96, 95 91,91,93,95,95,100,100,94
7	July 29 - August 4, 1995 August 9 - 15, 1998 July 15 - 21, 1991 July 12 - 18, 1983 July 7 - 13, 1981 August 1 - 7, 1955 July 15 - 21, 1953	93, 93, 91, 94, 96, 90,96 93, 93, 95, 94, 96, 99, 97 90, 93, 96, 99, 96, 100, 102 94, 93, 94, 98, 96, 93, 97 94, 95, 96, 93, 94, 94, 93 98, 100, 90, 95, 100, 97, 93 92, 97, 100, 101, 91, 90, 90

 

[LibertyBell]

https://www.life.com/history/heat-wave-photos-1950s/#:~:text=The summer of 1953 in,12 days in a row.

The summer of 1953 in New York City was torturous. The temperature was in the 90s (or higher) every day between July 15 and 21, and again between Aug. 24 and Sept. 4 a record-setting 12 days in a row. And that’s not even accounting for other  90-plus days in between.

Keep in mind that air-conditioning was far from widespread. Though the technology has been around since the early 20th century, it was then used primarily in movie theaters and other public spaces.

 

[wdrag]

12z/31 Guidance including ensembles continues 80s inland Tue-Fri, possibly weekend, with 90 possible Thu-Fri...even NYC???  AC will be needed parts of the inland areas  Thu-Fri afternoon.  So far, below June heat advisory guidance (I think still lower threshold in May-June than JAS) this coming Thu-Fri.