OBS for OKX Flood Watch (attached) into early Saturday 5/10/25

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Another crazy convection flair up in the same location. 

[MANDA]

Received 1.53" here last 24 hours (8am - 8am) with a weekly total (5/3 - 5/9) of 2.81". 

Rain came down hard at times predawn through about 7am. 

Everything lush and green.  Much appreciated rain this week.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That’s my theory. This time of year there is a huge temperature difference at the north wall of the Gulf Stream. From 80 degree water to 50s in a matter of miles. And the convection seems to fire just to the north west of the north wall. 

we keep having these heavy bouts of tropical rainfall interspersed with dry periods, we just had another one.

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Another crazy convection flair up in the same location. 

it will be interesting if we see a hurricane come up on this path in September.

I want a 1944 style pattern, hot with many 90 degree days and a few 100 degree days (my favorite early period summer) followed by a Cat 2 hurricane near the first day of fall.  I could see a hurricane tracing that exact path to landfall in the middle of Long Island this fall.

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, steve392 said:

Veolia Water co just informed us that Oradell Reservoir is less than an hour from spilling over the dam.  Guess it's been filled up this week.

we'll see how many people love rain when we get widespread flooding and they are swimming in their basements.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it will be interesting if we see a hurricane come up on this path in September.

I want a 1944 style pattern, hot with many 90 degree days and a few 100 degree days (my favorite early period summer) followed by a Cat 2 hurricane near the first day of fall.  I could see a hurricane tracing that exact path to landfall in the middle of Long Island this fall.

Those big decaying former MDR majors are always disappointing up here. Their circulations are so large that they entrain a ton of dry air by the time they arrive. Gloria being a great example. What you want is either rapid speed, 1938 or a home grown storm like Bob 91 or carol 54.

[STORMANLI]

0.73"

Week @ 3.06" 

Next choo choo in this train might be a little further east.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Here’s carol

[LibertyBell]

Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Here’s carol

wow it didn't touch land at all between the Bahamas and Long Island?

[steve392]

Is that batch over PA going to swing into the NYC metro area?

[winterwx21]

7 minutes ago, steve392 said:

Is that batch over PA going to swing into the NYC metro area?

Hopefully. HRRR says we're gonna get some more rain from that batch. 

[Sundog]

31 minutes ago, steve392 said:

Is that batch over PA going to swing into the NYC metro area?

Maybe the SE PA/SNJ stuff might swing through here. If it holds. 

[Brian5671]

23 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Maybe the SE PA/SNJ stuff might swing through here. If it holds. 

It likely will but the main show is over for most here

[IrishRob17]

The steady rain finally moved out, just occasional light rain/mist now, 2.28" for this event, 4.43" over the past week (for the month as well) 51/50.

[jm1220]

E Suffolk getting crushed. Someone out on the twin forks should get 3-4”.

[Brian5671]

radar filling back in here-light/moderate rain again

[steve392]

Another batch of moderate rain coming down in mahwah.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

E Suffolk getting crushed. Someone out on the twin forks should get 3-4”.

Check out Rhode Island right now. That’s a serious slug of moisture. 

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Check out Rhode Island right now. That’s a serious slug of moisture. 

Hard to believe our rainfall totals are under one inch.  But it looks like we'll end up in the .50-1.00 category, with the 1+ inches in eastern LI and NW areas.

It's plenty of rain, looks like it's 90% done. Might get another tenth out of this that's about it.

 

 

[STORMANLI]

Hicksville 

0.62"

[LibertyBell]

It's raining again, maybe this is that last batch people were talking about coming through?

[IrishRob17]

Radar not showing it but light rain continues, 2.43" with .05" in the last hour. 

[IrishRob17]

https://partnerservices.nws.noaa.gov/products/2551fcb706b73e58bc0073c4827a8ca8

[jm1220]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Hard to believe our rainfall totals are under one inch.  But it looks like we'll end up in the .50-1.00 category, with the 1+ inches in eastern LI and NW areas.

It's plenty of rain, looks like it's 90% done. Might get another tenth out of this that's about it.

 

 

Overdone again like the last storm generally when some models had 4”+. Was pretty obvious what the outcome would be early this AM with the split-screw setting up. Hopefully the last places with drought get a good benefit. SE NJ still needs a soaker. 

[IrishRob17]

2.68" event total, solid over performer IMBY. 

[gravitylover]

^^ Ya beat me by a half inch. 2.1 here and it's still drizzling.

[IrishRob17]

10 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

^^ Ya beat me by a half inch. 2.1 here and it's still drizzling.

Where do you stand for May now? I'm guessing you're still ahead since I split the uprights for most of Thursday's showers, 4.68" here for the month. 

[wdrag]

CoCoRaHs two day accumulations attached-click for clarity. Max observed 3.5" (se NYS) unless local offices post greater. Max near 2" e LI.  Two minor flood warnings in CT with slow rises into Mothers Day.  Not much of a watch verification but the rain was needed as displayed and should alleviate what is now listed as only Long Term drought n NJ/e PA/Southern New England.  As some noted; s NJ could use more. 

Have my hopes for more than indicated 12z Tue/13-00z Fr/16 of next week if the upper low can lift a little further north. Worthy of monitoring but no thread til next week, if the unlikely spot 3" occurs up here along and north of I80. Right now we're sort of the northern fringe as per 06z/10 WPC ensembles.

 

[xram]

3 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

2.68" event total, solid over performer IMBY. 

3.05"" event total here. Pretty good soaking. 6.18" for the month. Definite over performer

[MANDA]

Had an additional .85" rainfall last 24 hours (8am - 8am) for a two day total of 2.38". 

Total 5/3 - 5/10 = 3.66".

Sunny and breezy this morning.