2025 Tropical Tracking Thread

[AlexD1990]

12z Euro way west. Scrapes outer banks and maybe even lower Delmarva with outer rain bands.

Let the social media panic begin

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[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, jconsor said:

Powerful Hurricane Erin continues to track on the southern edge of the model spread on Sat, as shown in the attached image. Erin's actual track in six hour increments is shown in the black X's, with NHC's main consensus forecast model TVCN shown in blue, with darker shades indicating more recent forecast model runs. You can see Erin made a notable bend to the left (turning from west-northwest to due west) in the past 12-18 hours and is currently about 50-75 miles south of consensus model forecasts from 24 hours ago. 

Here's an in-depth post I wrote on Fri describing my concerns that ensemble forecasts are underdoing W. Atl ridging, and explaining why US impacts can't be ruled out yet. It wasn't posted until now due to coming down with a stomach virus and some technical issues.  My thoughts on Erin's track and potential US impacts haven't changed much since Fri.  Would appreciate if you can take a look at the post and send me feedback (you can PM me here or write to [email protected]), as well as spread the word about my Substack.  Thank you guys!
https://hurricanehacker.substack.com/p/arrested-development

From the main thread.

[dailylurker]

What a beautiful display of raw natural power this evening out there in the tropical Atlantic. The water vapor imagery is very impressive. It looks like it wants to tighten up that outflow and become a supercane overnight tonight. 

[frd]

51 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

What a beautiful display of raw natural power this evening out there in the tropical Atlantic. The water vapor imagery is very impressive. It looks like it wants to tighten up that outflow and become a supercane overnight tonight. 

Typhoon League? 

[Eskimo Joe]

Notable changes for our coastal folks on the 18z GFS and ICON. Both nudge west and the GFS puts a steady easterly flow on the beaches. Would be rip current city.

[AlexD1990]

I think given today's events, it's prudent to continue to keep an eye on this. It's still too early for either camp to declare victory, imo

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[WxWatcher007]

NHC noting the possibility of some impacts

4. Interests along the North Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts,
and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin as there is a risk
of strong winds associated with the outer rainbands during the
middle part of the week.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EURO wave and 6Z wind forecast gusts for Th.

[Weather Will]

0Z UKMET brings heaviest wind gusts along the coast on Th. Evening along mid Atlantic.

[clskinsfan]

[WxWatcher007]

Erin is not going to need to hug the coast in order to bring some impacts. This is going to be a huge wind field, and if Erin is truly poised to continue tracking further west as it has throughout its time being forecasted, strong winds along the coast shouldn't be ruled out. The NHC itself has made it a point in recent discussions.

Quote

Based on an evaluation of storm sizes of major hurricanes over the
past couple of decades in the subtropics, Erin is around the 80th
percentile. Erin's wind field is expected to keep growing over the
next few days. The expanding wind field will result in rough ocean
conditions over much of the western Atlantic. It should be noted
that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36 hours in
the text and graphical products are likely underestimating the risk
of those winds occurring.  This is because the forecast wind field
of Erin is considerably larger than average compared to the wind
field used to derive the wind speed probability product.

 

We should also start keeping an eye on what the ensembles do with the follow up wave. 

[WxWatcher007]

From the NHC. I wonder if there are more watches up the coast eventually if the nudges west continue.

4. Interests along the Outer Banks of North Carolina and Bermuda
should monitor the progress of Erin.  Tropical storm conditions 
and coastal flooding are possible in the North Carolina Outer Banks 
beginning late Wednesday and a Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watch 
may be required later today.

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

From the NHC. I wonder if there are more watches up the coast eventually if the nudges west continue.

4. Interests along the Outer Banks of North Carolina and Bermuda
should monitor the progress of Erin.  Tropical storm conditions 
and coastal flooding are possible in the North Carolina Outer Banks 
beginning late Wednesday and a Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watch 
may be required later today.

This thing is one bad turn away from having an few outer rainbands scrape portions of the eastern seaboard. At the very least, this will be a decent surf/tidal event. The wording is warranted, IMO.

[WxWatcher007]

Posted in the tropical subforum, but HAFS and Euro really moved west at 12z. Whether that's actually true we'll see, but it would likely bring TS gusts to the coast. 

[clskinsfan]

For the surfers on the board. Wave forecast of 10-18 for Thursday in OC. Gonna be fun!

[dailylurker]

16 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

For the surfers on the board. Wave forecast of 10-18 for Thursday in OC. Gonna be fun!

Once the wind flips offshore it will be epic. I use to surf. I even lived down there for several years. These setups are what we lived for. 

[JB Fins]

Down in Emerald Isle for the week.  Yesterday was gorgeous.  Today, surf has picked up, chased some folks off the beach as tide has come in.  Some weekend warrior boogie boarders have learned some valuable lessons.

[wxmeddler]

10 minutes ago, JB Fins said:

Down in Emerald Isle for the week.  Yesterday was gorgeous.  Today, surf has picked up, chased some folks off the beach as tide has come in.  Some weekend warrior boogie boarders have learned some valuable lessons.

The washing machine took me out 2 weeks ago when the last NE'ly flow event happened. I'm still finding sand in places you'd never think sand could ever reach. 

[Eskimo Joe]

The 12z Euro nudges west again. It's getting to the point where Tropical Storm Watches are going to be required for the Outer Banks.

[wxmeddler]

TS Watches for OBX as of the 5p advisory