AlexD1990 Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 12z Euro way west. Scrapes outer banks and maybe even lower Delmarva with outer rain bands.Let the social media panic begin Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 1 minute ago, jconsor said: Powerful Hurricane Erin continues to track on the southern edge of the model spread on Sat, as shown in the attached image. Erin's actual track in six hour increments is shown in the black X's, with NHC's main consensus forecast model TVCN shown in blue, with darker shades indicating more recent forecast model runs. You can see Erin made a notable bend to the left (turning from west-northwest to due west) in the past 12-18 hours and is currently about 50-75 miles south of consensus model forecasts from 24 hours ago. Here's an in-depth post I wrote on Fri describing my concerns that ensemble forecasts are underdoing W. Atl ridging, and explaining why US impacts can't be ruled out yet. It wasn't posted until now due to coming down with a stomach virus and some technical issues. My thoughts on Erin's track and potential US impacts haven't changed much since Fri. Would appreciate if you can take a look at the post and send me feedback (you can PM me here or write to [email protected]), as well as spread the word about my Substack. Thank you guys!https://hurricanehacker.substack.com/p/arrested-development From the main thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 What a beautiful display of raw natural power this evening out there in the tropical Atlantic. The water vapor imagery is very impressive. It looks like it wants to tighten up that outflow and become a supercane overnight tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 51 minutes ago, dailylurker said: What a beautiful display of raw natural power this evening out there in the tropical Atlantic. The water vapor imagery is very impressive. It looks like it wants to tighten up that outflow and become a supercane overnight tonight. Typhoon League? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 Notable changes for our coastal folks on the 18z GFS and ICON. Both nudge west and the GFS puts a steady easterly flow on the beaches. Would be rip current city. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 I think given today's events, it's prudent to continue to keep an eye on this. It's still too early for either camp to declare victory, imo Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 17 Author Share Posted August 17 NHC noting the possibility of some impacts 4. Interests along the North Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin as there is a risk of strong winds associated with the outer rainbands during the middle part of the week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 WB 0Z EURO wave and 6Z wind forecast gusts for Th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 0Z UKMET brings heaviest wind gusts along the coast on Th. Evening along mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 18 Author Share Posted August 18 Erin is not going to need to hug the coast in order to bring some impacts. This is going to be a huge wind field, and if Erin is truly poised to continue tracking further west as it has throughout its time being forecasted, strong winds along the coast shouldn't be ruled out. The NHC itself has made it a point in recent discussions. Quote Based on an evaluation of storm sizes of major hurricanes over the past couple of decades in the subtropics, Erin is around the 80th percentile. Erin's wind field is expected to keep growing over the next few days. The expanding wind field will result in rough ocean conditions over much of the western Atlantic. It should be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text and graphical products are likely underestimating the risk of those winds occurring. This is because the forecast wind field of Erin is considerably larger than average compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed probability product. We should also start keeping an eye on what the ensembles do with the follow up wave. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 18 Author Share Posted August 18 From the NHC. I wonder if there are more watches up the coast eventually if the nudges west continue. 4. Interests along the Outer Banks of North Carolina and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin. Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are possible in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday and a Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watch may be required later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: From the NHC. I wonder if there are more watches up the coast eventually if the nudges west continue. 4. Interests along the Outer Banks of North Carolina and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin. Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are possible in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday and a Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watch may be required later today. This thing is one bad turn away from having an few outer rainbands scrape portions of the eastern seaboard. At the very least, this will be a decent surf/tidal event. The wording is warranted, IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 18 Author Share Posted August 18 Posted in the tropical subforum, but HAFS and Euro really moved west at 12z. Whether that's actually true we'll see, but it would likely bring TS gusts to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 For the surfers on the board. Wave forecast of 10-18 for Thursday in OC. Gonna be fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 16 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: For the surfers on the board. Wave forecast of 10-18 for Thursday in OC. Gonna be fun! Once the wind flips offshore it will be epic. I use to surf. I even lived down there for several years. These setups are what we lived for. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 Down in Emerald Isle for the week. Yesterday was gorgeous. Today, surf has picked up, chased some folks off the beach as tide has come in. Some weekend warrior boogie boarders have learned some valuable lessons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 10 minutes ago, JB Fins said: Down in Emerald Isle for the week. Yesterday was gorgeous. Today, surf has picked up, chased some folks off the beach as tide has come in. Some weekend warrior boogie boarders have learned some valuable lessons. The washing machine took me out 2 weeks ago when the last NE'ly flow event happened. I'm still finding sand in places you'd never think sand could ever reach. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 The 12z Euro nudges west again. It's getting to the point where Tropical Storm Watches are going to be required for the Outer Banks. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 TS Watches for OBX as of the 5p advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 18 Author Share Posted August 18 Happy hour on 18z GFS lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Happy hour on 18z GFS lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 39 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Happy hour on 18z GFS lol The temps and dews behind that look beautiful. RIP NYC lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 Thursday does not look like a good beach day...18Z EURO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 Tropical Storm Watch for Worcester County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 Lots of NC live cams at this link. https://www.surfchex.com/cams/hatteras-web-cam/ 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 Well, picked a great week to go to Wildwood NJ to visit family. Leaving tonight. I'll try to get some surf pix/vids when its most rough Thurs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 34 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Well, picked a great week to go to Wildwood NJ to visit family. Leaving tonight. I'll try to get some surf pix/vids when its most rough Thurs. My favorite spot. Fri or Sat AM with North winds and excellent surf. Be safe . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 37 minutes ago, frd said: My favorite spot. Fri or Sat AM with North winds and excellent surf. Be safe . I hope we get a "beach day" or two Fri/Sat. We'll have 4 kids under 12 so no one is going to be going in the water much past their knees, if that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 19 Author Share Posted August 19 On 8/18/2025 at 10:59 AM, WxWatcher007 said: From the NHC. I wonder if there are more watches up the coast eventually if the nudges west continue. 4. Interests along the Outer Banks of North Carolina and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin. Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are possible in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday and a Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watch may be required later today. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued north of Duck to Cape Charles Light Virginia. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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