2025 Tropical Tracking Thread

[AlexD1990]

12z Euro way west. Scrapes outer banks and maybe even lower Delmarva with outer rain bands.

Let the social media panic begin

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[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, jconsor said:

Powerful Hurricane Erin continues to track on the southern edge of the model spread on Sat, as shown in the attached image. Erin's actual track in six hour increments is shown in the black X's, with NHC's main consensus forecast model TVCN shown in blue, with darker shades indicating more recent forecast model runs. You can see Erin made a notable bend to the left (turning from west-northwest to due west) in the past 12-18 hours and is currently about 50-75 miles south of consensus model forecasts from 24 hours ago. 

Here's an in-depth post I wrote on Fri describing my concerns that ensemble forecasts are underdoing W. Atl ridging, and explaining why US impacts can't be ruled out yet. It wasn't posted until now due to coming down with a stomach virus and some technical issues.  My thoughts on Erin's track and potential US impacts haven't changed much since Fri.  Would appreciate if you can take a look at the post and send me feedback (you can PM me here or write to [email protected]), as well as spread the word about my Substack.  Thank you guys!
https://hurricanehacker.substack.com/p/arrested-development

From the main thread.

[dailylurker]

What a beautiful display of raw natural power this evening out there in the tropical Atlantic. The water vapor imagery is very impressive. It looks like it wants to tighten up that outflow and become a supercane overnight tonight. 

[frd]

51 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

What a beautiful display of raw natural power this evening out there in the tropical Atlantic. The water vapor imagery is very impressive. It looks like it wants to tighten up that outflow and become a supercane overnight tonight. 

Typhoon League? 

[Eskimo Joe]

Notable changes for our coastal folks on the 18z GFS and ICON. Both nudge west and the GFS puts a steady easterly flow on the beaches. Would be rip current city.

[AlexD1990]

I think given today's events, it's prudent to continue to keep an eye on this. It's still too early for either camp to declare victory, imo

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