2025 Tropical Tracking Thread

[Paleocene]

18 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS on the 19th has a cluster in the Gulf and off the Atlantic coast heading out to sea. EURO AI ensemble has a similar cluster in Gulf and Atlantic but the Atlantic tracks are closer to the coast. 

 

 

12z GEFS today still has the cluster in the atlantic at about 240 hours. only a couple members head west for the gulf

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS flashing red for Mid Atlantic coast....

[WxWatcher007]

It’s still really far out. Worth a casual eye though. 
 

[Weather Will]

11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s still really far out. Worth a casual eye though. 
 

Yes, especially since I will be on the shore the last two weeks of August.  It has been 50 years or so since I had to evacuate while on vacation in OC.

[Weather Will]

NHC at 8pm.  Eastern Atlantic is the wave to watch.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EPS tropical storm and hurricane probabilities  through day 10.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z ensemble low locations at 0Z Friday.

[dailylurker]

GFS has JAWS music playing at the end of its run. 

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, dailylurker said:

GFS has JAWS music playing at the end of its run. 

Trade seems to be early fall cold front with gorgeous weather or cat 5 up the Bay

[Weather Will]

12Z EPS probs thru Day 10 keep it off the coast.

[H2O]

Anything that high up will likely be a recurve

[jewell2188]

Is this the year after a long overdue hurricane drought for the mid Atlantic ????

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 hours ago, jewell2188 said:

Is this the year after a long overdue hurricane drought for the mid Atlantic ????

We can go decades without a hit from an actual hurricane. Most of the time it’s remnants or tropical storms that make their way here.

[Weather Will]

Still over 10 days out, but interesting to see the GFS and AI so close at Day 12-300 hrs. (18Z WB)

[WxWatcher007]

4 hours ago, H2O said:

Anything that high up will likely be a recurve

Agree. It needs to be hugging or very near the Antilles.