2025 Tropical Tracking Thread

[Paleocene]

18 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS on the 19th has a cluster in the Gulf and off the Atlantic coast heading out to sea. EURO AI ensemble has a similar cluster in Gulf and Atlantic but the Atlantic tracks are closer to the coast. 

 

 

12z GEFS today still has the cluster in the atlantic at about 240 hours. only a couple members head west for the gulf

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS flashing red for Mid Atlantic coast....

[WxWatcher007]

It’s still really far out. Worth a casual eye though. 
 

[Weather Will]

11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s still really far out. Worth a casual eye though. 
 

Yes, especially since I will be on the shore the last two weeks of August.  It has been 50 years or so since I had to evacuate while on vacation in OC.

[Weather Will]

NHC at 8pm.  Eastern Atlantic is the wave to watch.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EPS tropical storm and hurricane probabilities  through day 10.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z ensemble low locations at 0Z Friday.

[dailylurker]

GFS has JAWS music playing at the end of its run. 

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, dailylurker said:

GFS has JAWS music playing at the end of its run. 

Trade seems to be early fall cold front with gorgeous weather or cat 5 up the Bay

[Weather Will]

12Z EPS probs thru Day 10 keep it off the coast.

[H2O]

Anything that high up will likely be a recurve

[jewell2188]

Is this the year after a long overdue hurricane drought for the mid Atlantic ????

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 hours ago, jewell2188 said:

Is this the year after a long overdue hurricane drought for the mid Atlantic ????

We can go decades without a hit from an actual hurricane. Most of the time it’s remnants or tropical storms that make their way here.

[Weather Will]

Still over 10 days out, but interesting to see the GFS and AI so close at Day 12-300 hrs. (18Z WB)

[WxWatcher007]

4 hours ago, H2O said:

Anything that high up will likely be a recurve

Agree. It needs to be hugging or very near the Antilles.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z ensembles in 12 days at 6Z Friday 22nd: GEFS a fish storm. EPS has a few members taking a more southern route.  AI is on to something or got drunk last night and has members from Texas to Mid Atlantic.  

[WxWatcher007]

There’s going to be windshield wipers too on the ensembles.

[Weather Will]

NHC Special Weather Statement:

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
935 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of the disturbance 
located southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands (AL97).

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
Updated:  Recently received satellite-derived wind data indicate 
that a well-defined low pressure system has formed about midway 
between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands with 
maximum winds of about 35 mph.  Although the associated shower and 
thunderstorm activity still lacks some organization, only a small 
increase in the organization could lead to the formation of a 
tropical depression before the low moves near or across the Cabo 
Verde Islands tonight and on Monday.  Regardless of development, 
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible today and Monday 
across the Cabo Verde Islands, and interests there should monitor 
the progress of this system.

Even if a tropical depression does not form over the next day or so, 
environmental conditions appear conducive for later development, 
and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle to latter 
portion of this week while moving west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph 
across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[frd]

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

NHC Special Weather Statement:

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
935 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of the disturbance 
located southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands (AL97).

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
Updated:  Recently received satellite-derived wind data indicate 
that a well-defined low pressure system has formed about midway 
between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands with 
maximum winds of about 35 mph.  Although the associated shower and 
thunderstorm activity still lacks some organization, only a small 
increase in the organization could lead to the formation of a 
tropical depression before the low moves near or across the Cabo 
Verde Islands tonight and on Monday.  Regardless of development, 
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible today and Monday 
across the Cabo Verde Islands, and interests there should monitor 
the progress of this system.

Even if a tropical depression does not form over the next day or so, 
environmental conditions appear conducive for later development, 
and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle to latter 
portion of this week while moving west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph 
across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

 

Look at these water temps, wow !