WxUSAF Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 0z euro joined GGEM in bringing rain to the area Monday from TD3/Chantal. Euro gets rain to the 95 corridor while GGEM gets it back to the Blue Ridge. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 The 5 pm advisory shifts the track of Chantal 40 miles west at Raleigh by Monday. Possible Va/DC impact slightly increases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 7 Author Share Posted July 7 Pretty wet day for the easterners Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Pretty wet day for the easterners Closing in on 2" on Cambridge mesonet site. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 I had a decent soaker in my yard. It looks like .80 from the tropical remnants as the skirted just south of the lowlands. The sun is out and the sky is a dark blue. It actually feels pretty nice out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 WB 12Z EPS TD probs thru Day 4. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 11 Author Share Posted July 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 14 Author Share Posted July 14 Invest 93L off the FL coast now. Looking pretty good. We’ll see if it’s coherent after crossing Florida. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 Another potential system fizzled out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 WB 12Z EPS. Maybe a tropical storm to watch coming out of Caribbean in 10 days.. WB 12Z AI has a storm out to sea at range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 25 Share Posted July 25 WB 18Z EURO AI Ens. at Day 14 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 25 Share Posted July 25 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EURO AI Ens. at Day 14 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1948522507922792876 Interestng read from Webber Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 25 Share Posted July 25 5 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EPS. Maybe a tropical storm to watch coming out of Caribbean in 10 days.. WB 12Z AI has a storm out to sea at range. Maybe we start to get some better surfing waves by the mid to third week of August, not too crazy please, but maybe just enough to make if more interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 25 Share Posted July 25 WB 12Z AI EPS....in two weeks.... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 26 Author Share Posted July 26 Not much out there. Summertime doldrums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 WB 12z EURO AI ensemble in about 2 weeks. At about Day 14, AI global has a gulf hit. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 28 Author Share Posted July 28 Still think that’s a little too out there in terms of accuracy. The environment is marginally better, if that, but the background state is still pretty hostile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Tuesday at 03:09 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:09 PM Things should start to ramp up a bit 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Wednesday at 02:12 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:12 PM 22 hours ago, frd said: Things should start to ramp up a bit Well, appears the AI models need some more teaching and learning before they can predict tropical storm and hurricane formations. Andy Hazelton @AndyHazelton 1h Central Atlantic waves are pretty convection-free at the moment, as background stability and dry air suppresses rising motion. Not surprisingly, there isn't much model signal for development anymore - the AI models seemed to have been overzealous. For now it seems like physics-based models (e.g. GFS, Euro, and their ensembles) are still our best bet for sniffing out potential TC formation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pityflakes Posted Thursday at 05:36 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:36 PM GFS hinting at a homegrown spin up tucking into NC/VA coast next week? Probably a phantom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Saturday at 12:28 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:28 AM Well now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted Saturday at 11:17 PM Share Posted Saturday at 11:17 PM 18z GFS has a doozy. Some very weak ensemble support as well. Odds still very much against though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 14 hours ago Author Share Posted 14 hours ago Tropical Overview 8/3 Things have been quiet for most of the season despite three named storms so far. ACE is well below normal, but at this point in the season ACE doesn't really mean much. We have approximately 90% of the season to go, and the peak of the season, which begins around August 20, is right around the corner. There are several factors that have contributed to the quiet start. In recent high activity/hyperactive years, we've seen activity in the tropical Atlantic before climatology makes the region favorable. Think Beryl of last year. That was not the case this year, as a hostile atmospheric pattern, stability, and lower sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) have left the tropical Atlantic devoid of activity, even in the face of historically low Saharan Air Layer intrusions (SAL) during its usual annual peak. Meanwhile, the PAC has been hot. And continues to be so as a favorable phase of the MJO passes through the region. Before more favorable atmospheric conditions move into the Atlantic we are already seeing homebrew starting to percolate off the East Coast. With a favorable MJO in the coming weeks, the window will begin to crack open in the Atlantic. At this time I am tracking three distinct possibilities. (As I wrote this the NHC designated area two as a lemon and area three as an orange) 1. Invest 95L Off the Southeast Coast The first area of interest is already likely in the early TC genesis stage. A current non-tropical low is trying to detach from a frontal boundary off the southeast coast, and is looking more and more like it's trying to become tropical with persistent convection firing now near an apparent center of circulation. This is a very common way to get TC genesis in the homebrew region this time of year. This looks well on its way to developing before conditions become more hostile early in the week. It is not a threat to land, as these frontal system TCs tend to follow the weakness in the trough out to sea. It's interesting, but not overwhelmingly so. 2. "Follow up" Development off Southeast Coast Now this one is much more interesting, and has been for a while now. Yesterday most probably sat up as the happy hour GFS showed a strong system attempt to develop in the wake of 95L off the same frontal boundary, this time getting shunted back into the US. Well, although that run of the GFS was way too aggressive, the signal for some sort of follow up development has been on the guidance for a few days now. It's not terribly hard to see why, as the environment looks at least marginally favorable for some development. Vorticity First--again, the frontal boundary is usually good for getting some vorticity spin up. So if something is far enough off the coast there should be some sort of spin that develops in the coming days. Both models pick up on this in the medium range. This is not enough for TC genesis. Which leads to the second favorable factor. Instability While the tropical Atlantic has been incredibly stable so far this season... There has been no such issue off the East Coast...in fact, instability has been extremely high. What that tells me is that anything that does have spin and can develop an area of low pressure will have a chance to generate convection, which will only help with TC genesis odds as long as the system isn't hugging land the entire time. SSTa Not much analysis needed here. I expect the the southwest Atlantic to be a hotbed of activity this season because that's where the heat is. Any low is going to have a shot with enough time and space to become tropical in this SSTa regime. Shear The key inhibitor here is shear. Often times with these frontal boundary systems near the coast you have shear and drier air that is lurking. That comes with the territory with the frontal boundary. Here it is unclear how favorable a shear environment this potential system will find, but guidance is hinting at a window of lower shear later this week taking hold. What makes this particularly interesting is the steering pattern. While the outcome is different in terms of where the area of vorticity goes, the pattern evolution is the same. In the wake of 95L a ridge builds in and traps whatever could develop along the coast. That's something to legitimately watch. Maybe not closely, yet, but at least with a casual eye. 3. Central Atlantic Wave This final area is highlighted as a lemon (now orange) by the NHC, but the wave hasn't yet left the coast of Africa. This is an area that should benefit from the coming MJO change, and it already has a few things going for it. First, as I mentioned earlier, SAL is at historic lows. Now, that doesn't mean that SAL isn't out in the Atlantic, because it is, but look at the coast of Africa. When this wave comes off, it will likely be in a pocket where there is very little SAL. It will be fighting stability in that part of the basin along with lesser SST anomalies, but that can be manageable with a vigorous enough wave. Timing and location are everything, and this one is still TBD on both. With the steering pattern likely changing with a ridge taking over, if this is able to get trapped under the ridge it will likely be moving into the most favorable conditions for a tropical wave yet this season. Just a little off and it's staying well out to sea. To be sure, I'm not calling for a US threat or anything at this time, but the NHC has a large geographical zone for development for a reason. There is higher than usual uncertainty on where this could develop. This may be our first reasonably strong system of the year for two reasons. First, it is running into the aforementioned warm SW Atlantic. OHC is primed for a system ready to take advantage of it. Even the central Atlantic looks conducive for some strong activity again this year. Second, and potentially far more concerning, is the ensemble guidance that wants to totally wipe out unfavorable shear. This is a fairly stunning retreat of shear by the 00z EPS. So while I'm not necessarily expecting a super burst of activity, we now have plenty to track in advance of the start of peak season, with two areas that are worth watching... 3 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 13 hours ago Author Share Posted 13 hours ago Feels good to get that out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 5 hours ago Author Share Posted 5 hours ago Won’t be long until 95L is a TC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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