2025 ENSO/Winter Speculation

[UnitedWx]

3 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I couldn't agree more. He has the same exact words that he uses. He hypes things up so much that I just shake my head. It's nuts how much he believes what he's saying, and what's worse, he has a lot of followers and subscribers I totally believe what's coming out of his mouth. Pure bull crap.

It's because unfortunately there are some who think that if they're posting something like that, they must know something... My best friend does this every year "but he sounds like he knows what he's talking about" LOL

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 10/1/2025 at 6:55 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

DJF hardly below normal from around the N shore of Boston points NE into Maine screams late-blooming Miller B/SWFE, to me.

 

 

On 10/1/2025 at 6:56 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Even more pronounced for JFM:

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Same page as raindance....when I see phase 7 December composite all I can think of is Dec 2007, although that month didn't spend much time in that phase in a literal sense.

@dendrite@dryslot

[Typhoon Tip]

On 9/30/2025 at 10:50 AM, UnitedWx said:

It's because unfortunately there are some who think that if they're posting something like that, they must know something... My best friend does this every year "but he sounds like he knows what he's talking about" LOL

It's a dumbing down of population, one that then became subjected to enormous data and "unconstrained interpretation" ( last 20 years...).  They were first made less incapable of categorical management ( mentally...), then it looks unmanageable to them in what's really become sociological crisis in society. 

All dimensions.    Decision making and judgements failing to screen through very good, if at all, objective analytics, is actually causing frenetic disruption, paranoia, good old fashioned fear. 

It's why "populism" is making a comeback. Populism gives rise to dictatorships - or prone to that occurrence throughout history, by the way. 

It's not just America either.  It's what technology is doing to humanity in a great evolutionary experiment our species has embarked upon.   It started with the Industrial Revolution, and has really gotten uncontrolled - particularly spanning the last 30 years of technology acceleration. Folks may not be able to articulate and/or quantify in sophistication/understanding, but damn well can intuit and abstractly sense .. But this latter form of awareness lends to uncertainty. Uncertainty = fear at group capacity.  --> contractions and pull away from progressive ideologies, seeking "safe traditions" - which unfortunately ... are on the wrong side of history, because those same traditions also got us into a state of climate crisis...  

It's not gonna end well, folks.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Who needs snow when the demise of society is imminent-

[FPizz]

35 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's a dumbing down of population, one that then became subjected to enormous data and "unconstrained interpretation" ( last 20 years...).  They were first made less incapable of categorical management ( mentally...), then it looks unmanageable to them in what's really become sociological crisis in society. 

All dimensions.    Decision making and judgements failing to screen through very good, if at all, objective analytics, is actually causing frenetic disruption, paranoia, good old fashioned fear. 

It's why "populism" is making a comeback. Populism gives rise to dictatorships - or prone to that occurrence throughout history, by the way. 

It's not just America either.  It's what technology is doing to humanity in a great evolutionary experiment our species has embarked upon.   It started with the Industrial Revolution, and has really gotten uncontrolled - particularly spanning the last 30 years of technology acceleration. Folks may not be able to articulate and/or quantify in sophistication/understanding, but damn well can intuit and abstractly sense .. But this latter form of awareness lends to uncertainty. Uncertainty = fear at group capacity.  --> contractions and pull away from progressive ideologies, seeking "safe traditions" - which unfortunately ... are on the wrong side of history, because those same traditions also got us into a state of climate crisis...  

It's not gonna end well, folks.

Well people believed the farmers almanac, squirrels hiding nuts, etc. before the internet, so this whole post loses whatever you were going for

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, FPizz said:

Well people believed the farmers almanac, squirrels hiding nuts, etc. before the internet, so this whole post loses whatever you were going for

So ...what exactly was I going for   LOL

 

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's a dumbing down of population, one that then became subjected to enormous data and "unconstrained interpretation" ( last 20 years...).  They were first made less incapable of categorical management ( mentally...), then it looks unmanageable to them in what's really become sociological crisis in society. 

All dimensions.    Decision making and judgements failing to screen through very good, if at all, objective analytics, is actually causing frenetic disruption, paranoia, good old fashioned fear. 

It's why "populism" is making a comeback. Populism gives rise to dictatorships - or prone to that occurrence throughout history, by the way. 

It's not just America either.  It's what technology is doing to humanity in a great evolutionary experiment our species has embarked upon.   It started with the Industrial Revolution, and has really gotten uncontrolled - particularly spanning the last 30 years of technology acceleration. Folks may not be able to articulate and/or quantify in sophistication/understanding, but damn well can intuit and abstractly sense .. But this latter form of awareness lends to uncertainty. Uncertainty = fear at group capacity.  --> contractions and pull away from progressive ideologies, seeking "safe traditions" - which unfortunately ... are on the wrong side of history, because those same traditions also got us into a state of climate crisis...  

It's not gonna end well, folks.

I was speaking with an old friend in Germany recently. He said it's become so bad there that some are being arrested simply for posting their own opinion on social media platforms, she says it reminds her of what they studied about 1930s Germany. This isn't a political "side" issue at all, it's a societal issue and it's... spooky

[Typhoon Tip]

Sorry, Ray ... wasn't intending to derail your winter thread.  LOL 

seriously tho.   

[TheClimateChanger]

On 10/1/2025 at 7:07 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

Wow, this would be an unusual La Nina to be that dry in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions. Maybe not as unusual for the east coast, but certainly strange to see so much below normal precipitation anomalies [especially given climatological trends].

[UnitedWx]

25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Sorry, Ray ... wasn't intending to derail your winter thread.  LOL 

seriously tho.   

I was thinking that myself, pre season form haha. And as always Ray, thanks for all the effort you put in here.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Wow, this would be an unusual La Nina to be that dry in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions. Maybe not as unusual for the east coast, but certainly strange to see so much below normal precipitation anomalies [especially given climatological trends].

Yea, I don't buy it being that dry...just commenting on the output.

[weatherwiz]

45 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Wow, this would be an unusual La Nina to be that dry in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions. Maybe not as unusual for the east coast, but certainly strange to see so much below normal precipitation anomalies [especially given climatological trends].

We're barely going to be in a La Nina, if we even officially get there. ENSO will probably have little influence on the overall regime. 

[weatherwiz]

Won't be able to put anything of great depth or detail together for the winter, but my thinking right now is that it is going to be a above average temperature regime for much of the country and could be on the drier side, except maybe the West and we'll see an overall theme of de-amplifying systems trucking across the country with another raging jet the culprit. 

[MJO812]

39 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Won't be able to put anything of great depth or detail together for the winter, but my thinking right now is that it is going to be a above average temperature regime for much of the country and could be on the drier side, except maybe the West and we'll see an overall theme of de-amplifying systems trucking across the country with another raging jet the culprit. 

Wow way different than most outlooks

Hope you are wrong 

[WxWatcher007]

I recognize that this is not a real contribution, but I would sign for this. 

 

[weatherwiz]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wow way different than most outlooks

Hope you are wrong 

Well like I said, I won't have time to do in-depth digging or analysis, but regardless, 90% of "seasonal" outlooks always find some way to make it cold/snow in the East. 

Anyways, regardless of whether we end up in La Nina (by ONI definition) or neutral negative, much of the Pacific remains a heat pump. Now, I know things may change some in this department as we move towards the northern hemisphere winter solstice but the IPWP and WPWP remain expansive, which has been a theme for the last several years. 

In the case of the IPWP, when combined with the -PDO regime, is going to yield a stronger gradient across the North Pacific as we move deeper through the cooler season (lower pressure over the IPWP and higher pressure in the north Pacific) which will contribute to a very fast jet stream yielding zonal flow into the U.S. 

I'm fearful this is a recipe for strong MJO activity when convection enters phases 5-7 and we all know what that means.

The WPHP is going to continue the theme of intense southern ridging and this could be even amped a bit by a weak La Nina or negative neutral ENSO and will aid in faster jet stream winds across the country. 

But of course you have wildcards such as stratosphere, QBO, etc. But when the PAC is a dominant player in this regard...it doesn't usually bode well for us.

[MJO812]

I was just listening to the radio and they were talking about winter and they said  that this might be the worst winter in a long time for the NYC area in regards to alot of snow and cold.

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I was just listening to the radio and they were talking about winter and they said  that this might be the worst winter in a long time for the NYC area in regards to alot of snow and cold.

No chance their just parroting what's meme-popularized in the razor sharp cutting scientific insight and intuitively gifted social mediasphere, either, huh

[cleetussnow]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I was just listening to the radio and they were talking about winter and they said  that this might be the worst winter in a long time for the NYC area in regards to alot of snow and cold.

Bullshit