2025 ENSO/Winter Speculation

[UnitedWx]

3 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I couldn't agree more. He has the same exact words that he uses. He hypes things up so much that I just shake my head. It's nuts how much he believes what he's saying, and what's worse, he has a lot of followers and subscribers I totally believe what's coming out of his mouth. Pure bull crap.

It's because unfortunately there are some who think that if they're posting something like that, they must know something... My best friend does this every year "but he sounds like he knows what he's talking about" LOL

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 10/1/2025 at 6:55 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

DJF hardly below normal from around the N shore of Boston points NE into Maine screams late-blooming Miller B/SWFE, to me.

 

 

On 10/1/2025 at 6:56 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Even more pronounced for JFM:

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Same page as raindance....when I see phase 7 December composite all I can think of is Dec 2007, although that month didn't spend much time in that phase in a literal sense.

@dendrite@dryslot

[Typhoon Tip]

On 9/30/2025 at 10:50 AM, UnitedWx said:

It's because unfortunately there are some who think that if they're posting something like that, they must know something... My best friend does this every year "but he sounds like he knows what he's talking about" LOL

It's a dumbing down of population, one that then became subjected to enormous data and "unconstrained interpretation" ( last 20 years...).  They were first made less incapable of categorical management ( mentally...), then it looks unmanageable to them in what's really become sociological crisis in society. 

All dimensions.    Decision making and judgements failing to screen through very good, if at all, objective analytics, is actually causing frenetic disruption, paranoia, good old fashioned fear. 

It's why "populism" is making a comeback. Populism gives rise to dictatorships - or prone to that occurrence throughout history, by the way. 

It's not just America either.  It's what technology is doing to humanity in a great evolutionary experiment our species has embarked upon.   It started with the Industrial Revolution, and has really gotten uncontrolled - particularly spanning the last 30 years of technology acceleration. Folks may not be able to articulate and/or quantify in sophistication/understanding, but damn well can intuit and abstractly sense .. But this latter form of awareness lends to uncertainty. Uncertainty = fear at group capacity.  --> contractions and pull away from progressive ideologies, seeking "safe traditions" - which unfortunately ... are on the wrong side of history, because those same traditions also got us into a state of climate crisis...  

It's not gonna end well, folks.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Who needs snow when the demise of society is imminent-

[FPizz]

35 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's a dumbing down of population, one that then became subjected to enormous data and "unconstrained interpretation" ( last 20 years...).  They were first made less incapable of categorical management ( mentally...), then it looks unmanageable to them in what's really become sociological crisis in society. 

All dimensions.    Decision making and judgements failing to screen through very good, if at all, objective analytics, is actually causing frenetic disruption, paranoia, good old fashioned fear. 

It's why "populism" is making a comeback. Populism gives rise to dictatorships - or prone to that occurrence throughout history, by the way. 

It's not just America either.  It's what technology is doing to humanity in a great evolutionary experiment our species has embarked upon.   It started with the Industrial Revolution, and has really gotten uncontrolled - particularly spanning the last 30 years of technology acceleration. Folks may not be able to articulate and/or quantify in sophistication/understanding, but damn well can intuit and abstractly sense .. But this latter form of awareness lends to uncertainty. Uncertainty = fear at group capacity.  --> contractions and pull away from progressive ideologies, seeking "safe traditions" - which unfortunately ... are on the wrong side of history, because those same traditions also got us into a state of climate crisis...  

It's not gonna end well, folks.

Well people believed the farmers almanac, squirrels hiding nuts, etc. before the internet, so this whole post loses whatever you were going for

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, FPizz said:

Well people believed the farmers almanac, squirrels hiding nuts, etc. before the internet, so this whole post loses whatever you were going for

So ...what exactly was I going for   LOL

 

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's a dumbing down of population, one that then became subjected to enormous data and "unconstrained interpretation" ( last 20 years...).  They were first made less incapable of categorical management ( mentally...), then it looks unmanageable to them in what's really become sociological crisis in society. 

All dimensions.    Decision making and judgements failing to screen through very good, if at all, objective analytics, is actually causing frenetic disruption, paranoia, good old fashioned fear. 

It's why "populism" is making a comeback. Populism gives rise to dictatorships - or prone to that occurrence throughout history, by the way. 

It's not just America either.  It's what technology is doing to humanity in a great evolutionary experiment our species has embarked upon.   It started with the Industrial Revolution, and has really gotten uncontrolled - particularly spanning the last 30 years of technology acceleration. Folks may not be able to articulate and/or quantify in sophistication/understanding, but damn well can intuit and abstractly sense .. But this latter form of awareness lends to uncertainty. Uncertainty = fear at group capacity.  --> contractions and pull away from progressive ideologies, seeking "safe traditions" - which unfortunately ... are on the wrong side of history, because those same traditions also got us into a state of climate crisis...  

It's not gonna end well, folks.

I was speaking with an old friend in Germany recently. He said it's become so bad there that some are being arrested simply for posting their own opinion on social media platforms, she says it reminds her of what they studied about 1930s Germany. This isn't a political "side" issue at all, it's a societal issue and it's... spooky

[Typhoon Tip]

Sorry, Ray ... wasn't intending to derail your winter thread.  LOL 

seriously tho.   

[TheClimateChanger]

On 10/1/2025 at 7:07 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

Wow, this would be an unusual La Nina to be that dry in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions. Maybe not as unusual for the east coast, but certainly strange to see so much below normal precipitation anomalies [especially given climatological trends].

[UnitedWx]

25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Sorry, Ray ... wasn't intending to derail your winter thread.  LOL 

seriously tho.   

I was thinking that myself, pre season form haha. And as always Ray, thanks for all the effort you put in here.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Wow, this would be an unusual La Nina to be that dry in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions. Maybe not as unusual for the east coast, but certainly strange to see so much below normal precipitation anomalies [especially given climatological trends].

Yea, I don't buy it being that dry...just commenting on the output.