E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2025 Obs/Discussion

[ChescoWx]

Quite a difference in rain totals since last night. Ranging from as much as 1.10" across NW Chester County like here in East Nantmeal to as little as 0.02" down in West Grove and West Bradford. If you missed on rain so far chances will increase again for most of the area as we move through the rest of today.

[Hurricane Agnes]

I am surprised I didn't get any more overnight so did finish up with 0.67" from that round.  It has started raining here again as another round comes in.

Bottomed out at 63 just after midnight and it's currently raining (0.06" in the bucket at post time) and 67, with dp 65.

[ChescoWx]

Showers and thunderstorms today before tapering off this evening. Some spots could see between another 0.50" to 1.00" of rain. Much cooler today with temperatures remaining in the low to mid 60s. Showers and cooler temperatures will continue through early Tuesday before we dry out on Wednesday. Rain chances increase again by the end of the new work week.

[Hurricane Agnes]

And unexpectedly, the sun has popped out.  Ended up with 0.11" from that isolated shower.  Will have to see if it becomes "self-destruct" and the sky clouds up again.

Currently partly sunny with the temp quickly rising and at 68, with dp 67.

[Birds~69]

39 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

And unexpectedly, the sun has popped out.  Ended up with 0.11" from that isolated shower.  Will have to see if it becomes "self-destruct" and the sky clouds up again.

Currently partly sunny with the temp quickly rising and at 68, with dp 67.

I already had two Sun showers. It's muggy out, uncomfortable.. 68f/dp 65 f

[ChescoWx]

A little late but below is the April Climate Summary for Chester County. April finished 1.9 degrees above our normal average temperature which is our 27th warmest April since records began in 1893. The top 10 warmest are avg temp (year)

57.3 (1921) / 57.2 (2017)/ 56.7 (1941) / 56.5 (1915) / 55.8 (2019) / 55.7 (1945) / 55.5 (1942) / 55.5 (1910) / 55.4 (1960) and 55.4 (2023)

[JTA66]

Up to .75” so far. Only 9.25” to go for the Euro to verify.

Stating the obvious, this is much welcomed. I kicked up so much dust mowing yesterday you’d think it was August.

[Albedoman]

No way does even 2 in even verify today. Absolutely no training of t storms. Air is too stable and too dry. Just enough rain to keep the pollen down today.  I only had a .40  inch of rain yesterday- very localized.  2 day total --.70 inch of rain. Still no drought buster rains for sure but it does help the garden.

[Birds~69]

30 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

No way does even 2 in even verify today. Absolutely no training of t storms. Air is too stable and too dry. Just enough rain to keep the pollen down today.  I only had a .40  inch of rain yesterday- very localized.  2 day total --.70 inch of rain. Still no drought buster rains for sure but it does help the garden.

Yeah, radar is/was a disappointment today. Total flop...

68F/DP 65F  

[LVLion77]

Yep, today thus far has been a total flop - 0.03” since midnight with drizzle currently and a nowcast radar that shows much of the same the rest of the day. Again the best action is to the west… several hundred miles west. Perhaps tomorrow will be our day?


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[MGorse]

A whopping 0.03 inches of rain so far. 

[JTA66]

384 hour GFS has snow from the finger lakes extending down into northern PA. Ralph told us to be patient.

[RedSky]

2.20" 

Today's rain has missed to the east

 

[RedSky]

GFS highs in the 40's next Friday 

[Hurricane Agnes]

Well another little scattered shower earlier this afternoon added 0.11" to the bucket for a total of 0.22" for the day so far and a 2-day event total of 0.89".

The high so far today was 71 just before 11 am but that has dropped down since.

It's currently overcast and muggy with temp 67 and dp 65.

[Voyager]

37 minutes ago, RedSky said:

2.20" 

Today's rain has missed to the east

 

And to your northwest. I've got 1.95" in the gauge since midnight up here in Tamaqua.

[RedSky]

Southern Chester incredibly still dry on radar history 

[ChescoWx]

19 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Southern Chester incredibly still dry on radar history 

Truth! 1.26" in NW Chesco vs 0.22" down in West Grove....

[JTA66]

Anyone know anything about birds? I have a robin building her nest on top of my hose reel which is directly under my dryer vent. I don’t mind the nest and plan on leaving her be. But I wonder if the hot exhaust from the dryer will be harmful the eggs (which she hasn’t laid yet).

[LVLion77]

Surprised to see the sun this evening. 0.08” during the day from sprinkles and light showers. Precip forecasts for tomorrow and Tuesday are significantly reduced now. I wonder if the accuracy of forecasts will increase with advanced AI.

[Albedoman]

1 hour ago, LVLion77 said:

Surprised to see the sun this evening. 0.08” during the day from sprinkles and light showers. Precip forecasts for tomorrow and Tuesday are significantly reduced now. I wonder if the accuracy of forecasts will increase with advanced AI.

I agree. From 2-4 inches to less than an inch for the LV and points north. I received a whopping .02 more rain than you today.  Hell, the new small leaves on the trees kept the street dry. There were more pollen sacs in the street from last nights gusty winds and brief heavy shower that I thought the township could bring out the plow.  Training of t storms is not in the cards anytime soon. 

[LVLion77]

I agree. From 2-4 inches to less than an inch for the LV and points north. I received a whopping .02 more rain than you today.  Hell, the new small leaves on the trees kept the street dry. There were more pollen sacs in the street from last nights gusty winds and brief heavy shower that I thought the township could bring out the plow.  Training of t storms is not in the cards anytime soon. 

Just an observation. Each time the precip forecast missed badly this spring, like today, we had an easterly wind here in the LV. I am no meteorologist and I could be very wrong, but this time of the year that east wind equals a cool stable flow off the Atlantic. Perhaps that is the factor that blows up a number of these forecast? Upstate NY seems to have gotten our forecasted heavy rains today. We are forecasted to have east winds Monday as well.


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[Albedoman]

4 hours ago, LVLion77 said:

Just an observation. Each time the precip forecast missed badly this spring, like today, we had an easterly wind here in the LV. I am no meteorologist and I could be very wrong, but this time of the year that east wind equals a cool stable flow off the Atlantic. Perhaps that is the factor that blows up a number of these forecast? Upstate NY seems to have gotten our forecasted heavy rains today. We are forecasted to have east winds Monday as well.


I agree, east winds are death notice for t storms. However, SE winds can bring some good training t storms in the summer or even in the winter, usually from a tropical system or Nor'easter - which is no where to be found now. A strong east wind brings in mid stratus clouds resulting in low amounts of daytime heating  for firing up convective type storms. Its like a blocking wall and usually extends to the Blue Mts. Thats why I keep mentioning the topography in my posts about the Blue Mts.  The best training t storms comes when we have a se to south flow of winds 8 hours before the precip  gets here.  Thats what happened on this date below when 2 in hail caused $20,000 damage to my roof and cars from a training t storm https://www.weather.gov/phi/EventReview20190529

 

[LVLion77]

 

I agree that topography has a big role as well here as you described, and that influence is year-round. The Atlantic stabilizing influence is likely only prevalent here in the spring when the ocean temp is generally in the 40s and 50s am low pressure is sitting to our west. I don’t think the computer models grasp that very well. In the fall and winter it is the opposite situation in that easterly flow is conducive to more precipitation, considering that the ocean is a lot warmer than the land at that point.


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[ChescoWx]

A gloomy start to the new work week with some drizzle and showers across the area. The European and GFS have around 0.50" of rain by Wednesday morning...but higher amounts are possible if we see some thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. High temperatures will be close to normal in the upper 60's to low 70's. We turn much chillier by the end of the week as Friday highs may struggle to escape the 50's for higher spots in the area.

[Mikeymac5306]

Nothing on our plate but drizzle and fat in West Chester. 

Was supposed to golf today. Could have played. Glad we didn't though. Rescheduled for next week. 

[Birds~69]

Radar looks great, so robust with moisture...

63F/DP 62F 

[RedSky]

HRRR/NAM are a trace to .15" 

GFS with a robust .20" forecast

 

[ChescoWx]

Some up slope flow as the moisture gets squeezed out by the hills NW of the Fall Line

[RedSky]

.25-50" totals through guidance for remainder of this slow ass low passage