2025-2026 ENSO

[PhiEaglesfan712]

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what about super (+2) el ninos?

 

I think only 1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16 ?

Yes, that's the list, though you could add 1972-73.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Yes, that's the list, though you could add 1972-73.

I noticed those are the only ones that have the temperature jump.

[TheClimateChanger]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, the winter overall sucked.

You are in the mid atl, I assume?

Nah, eastern Great Lakes. Still one of the snowiest Januarys on record in most areas, and like 90% of it fell in the first two weeks or so. I think we were out of school more than we were in school during that stretch. These don't even capture the fact that the big midwest blizzard brought a lot of freezing rain and sleet at the beginning of the month (1/2 to 1/3). So, yeah, that was a very impressive wintry stretch in an otherwise ho-hum winter.

Erie - 4th snowiest January

Buffalo - 3rd snowiest January

Cleveland - 6th snowiest January

Canton/Akron - 5th snowiest January

Youngstown, Ohio - Snowiest on record

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Nah, eastern Great Lakes. Still one of the snowiest Januarys on record in most areas, and like 90% of it fell in the first two weeks or so. I think we were out of school more than we were in school during that stretch. These don't even capture the fact that the big midwest blizzard brought a lot of freezing rain and sleet at the beginning of the month (1/2 to 1/3). So, yeah, that was a very impressive wintry stretch in an otherwise ho-hum winter.

Erie - 4th snowiest January

Buffalo - 3rd snowiest January

Cleveland - 6th snowiest January

Canton/Akron - 5th snowiest January

Youngstown, Ohio - Snowiest on record

 

I was speaking of that winter in a NE US context, but it makes sense that it wasn't as bad in the GL region....that set up isn't as hostile there.

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Thats awesome. Ive ran across some others who keep personal records. So cool to have us snow weenies that do that. If I am out of town and its going to snow, I have a standby observer for me too lol.

Haha same, and my guy posts on this site.  He helped me last year while my family was away on vacation and we got a 4" snow before Christmas. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

36 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I noticed those are the only ones that have the temperature jump.

I'd argue the temperature jump in the 80s took place during the 86-88 el nino, rather than the 82-83 one. Global temperature for 1982 was lower than 1973 and 1978-81, and 1983's was right there with 1981. We really didn't break through the glass ceiling of 0.35 until 1988.

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It was a blowtoch then....the winter sucked.

It was a blowtorch winter for sure. Especially Dec & Feb. Jan was seasonable temps but with record snow the first half here. The infamous blizzard of '99 on Jan 2nd was followed by storm after storm. Definitely made it memorable, but certainly doesnt hold a candle to great winters of the '00s-'10s.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

2015-16 even worse than 1982-83, same one big storm winter

 

I would take 2015-16 anyday over 1982-83 here. It was much snowier, tho still obviously a warm winter.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was speaking of that winter in a NE US context, but it makes sense that it wasn't as bad in the GL region....that set up isn't as hostile there.

Its extremely rare that I agree w/ TCC on anything, but I do on this one. Jan 1999 was an incredible stretch locally. PLUS...this came after multiple anemic winters. We didnt see a double digit snow depth from Feb 1994 thru Dec 1998, then bam, 2 feet on the ground in January 1999. Plus, the 1990s were my school years, so really 1999 was snow Id never seen before. Deeper snow was far more common in the 1970s-mid 1980s and 2000s-2010s than it was from the late 1980s to late 1990s, ie: my childhood. It remains the 3rd snowiest January on record (27.3"), behind only 1978 (29.6") & 2014 (39.1").

This is a pic of my mom shoveling snow Jan 13, 1999

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

Haha same, and my guy posts on this site.  He helped me last year while my family was away on vacation and we got a 4" snow before Christmas. 

Super cool! Ill raise you one...

I usually am only out of town for 4 days or so during winter when I take a trip north. If it snows during one of those days, depending on the circumstances I have a couple different people on standby. If its a general snowfall with low wind, I use one person to come to my house and use my snow board, but if its one of those squally lake events, I have a more skilled person nearby and use their measurement. I also look at my ring camera to see if i approve. 

[roardog]

56 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I would take 2015-16 anyday over 1982-83 here. It was much snowier, tho still obviously a warm winter.

82-83 and 97-98 are what I think of when I think of a very strong El Niño winter in the Midwest. I actually had quite a bit of wet 32F snow in 15-16, it just always started melting shortly after it fell. 15-16 was missing the “dry” part of a strong Nino around here.

[FPizz]

82-83 was 34.6" here, one of the better one's in the 80's.  97-98 is the 2nd worst snow winter of my lifetime with 5.5"  Only 01-02 with 4" has been worse.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I had about normal snowfall in 82-83, in large part thanks to the Megalopolis system.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I would take 2015-16 anyday over 1982-83 here. It was much snowier, tho still obviously a warm winter.

I had my biggest snowstorm I've ever experienced here in January 2016 (my only 30"+ snowstorm) so I would take it too.  Plus some additional bonus snowfalls in February and the latest below zero temperature I've ever experienced (on Valentines Day morning!)

 

[LibertyBell]

49 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I had about normal snowfall in 82-83, in large part thanks to the Megalopolis system.

We had our latest snowfall on record that year too, April 19, 1983 1.5" here.

 

[LibertyBell]

54 minutes ago, FPizz said:

82-83 was 34.6" here, one of the better one's in the 80's.  97-98 is the 2nd worst snow winter of my lifetime with 5.5"  Only 01-02 with 4" has been worse.

97-98 would have been the worst if it wasn't for that unexpected first day of spring snowfall, although 01-02 was a warmer winter and had the shortest period between first freeze and last freeze I've ever experienced.  I had roses blooming until just before New Years and crocuses coming out in the last week of February lol

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Its extremely rare that I agree w/ TCC on anything, but I do on this one. Jan 1999 was an incredible stretch locally. PLUS...this came after multiple anemic winters. We didnt see a double digit snow depth from Feb 1994 thru Dec 1998, then bam, 2 feet on the ground in January 1999. Plus, the 1990s were my school years, so really 1999 was snow Id never seen before. Deeper snow was far more common in the 1970s-mid 1980s and 2000s-2010s than it was from the late 1980s to late 1990s, ie: my childhood. It remains the 3rd snowiest January on record (27.3"), behind only 1978 (29.6") & 2014 (39.1").

This is a pic of my mom shoveling snow Jan 13, 1999

1977-78 was another winter that was great for a lot of people.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

97-98 would have been the worst if it wasn't for that unexpected first day of spring snowfall, although 01-02 was a warmer winter and had the shortest period between first freeze and last freeze I've ever experienced.  I had roses blooming until just before New Years and crocuses coming out in the last week of February lol

 

The only redealming event that I had that season was a couple of days before Xmas....there was an explosive storm on 12/23/97 that produced insane rates and dropped 1-2' around the area. Ayer, MA has 8" in one hour.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I'd argue the temperature jump in the 80s took place during the 86-88 el nino, rather than the 82-83 one. Global temperature for 1982 was lower than 1973 and 1978-81, and 1983's was right there with 1981. We really didn't break through the glass ceiling of 0.35 until 1988.

True we had some subzero cold in the early and middle 80s: Christmas 1980, January 1982, December 1983, January 1985.  The wheels really fell off the wagon in the late 80s and especially the early 90s.  Hell even when it was very cold (December 1989) it didn't snow much.

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The only redealming event that I had that season was a couple of days before Xmas....there was an explosive storm on 12/23/97 that produced insane rates and dropped 1-2' around the area. Ayer, MA has 8" in one hour.

Was that similar to the thundersnow event in December 1996? What a book end winter that was between December 1996 and April 1997 lol.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I would love to get a slow moving HECS that breaks out around noon on Xmas eve and rages into Xmas night....been teased a couple of times, but no dice.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Was that similar to the thundersnow event in December 1996? What a book end winter that was between December 1996 and April 1997 lol.

 

Simlar totals, but December 1996 occureed over two successive events in close proximity....Dec 1997 was just one event. The follow up one in Dec 1996 was mainly rain on the coastal plane.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would love to get a slow moving HECS that breaks out around noon on Xmas eve and rages into Xmas night....been teased a couple of times, but no dice.

Sort of like December 1966 but a bigger event?

1966-67 a GREAT winter and it went out very snowy and very cold in March too.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Sort of like December 1966 but a bigger event?

1966-67 a GREAT winter and it went out very snowy and very cold in March too.

I had a quick hitting 7"er very late xmas eve into early Xmas AM 2017.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I think it was Dec 1998. I remember temps were in the 60s the morning of the 22nd, then fell throughout the day. The lows ended up in the 20s, and it snowed the next day.

1998-12-22	64	24	44.0	6.9	21	0	0.05	0.0	0
1998-12-23	27	20	23.5	-13.3	41	0	0.10	1.5	0

 

 

[snowman19]

Yea, I think the real flip is near the turn of the decade.

Agree. I think we are stuck in a -PDO decadal state for at least another year

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Agree. I think we are stuck in a -PDO decadal state for at least another year

I think last winter was a sign of change, but its probably going to be an incremental, two steps forward, one step backwards kind of deal. ...

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Agree. I think we are stuck in a -PDO decadal state for at least another year

My guess is that the duration of this current -PDO interval, which emerged around 18-19, will linger as long as the WPAC stays this warm. May had multiple areas near and west of the Dateline ranking near the warmest on record.

We probably would have continued the +PDO which emerged around 13-14 right into the 2020s if it wasn’t for that rapid increase in WPAC 500mb heights which warmed the WPAC leading to the -PDO. 

Hopefully, the changes in the WPAC at 500mb and the surface don’t permanently load the dice for more -PDOs with only intermittent +PDOs.

In the old days, the -PDO  defined more by the cold pool off the West Coast. Now, the warm pool and 2nd EOF of the PDO in the WPAC are running the show. It would be nice to get monthly real time 2nd EOF updates. But the the ranking charts below can be used in place of the formal 2nd EOF numbers.

 

2019 to 2025 -PDO

 

2014 to 2018 +PDO

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Like I have been saying, its not rocket science....we are right on track for a phase switch around the turn of the decade.....the last cold phase was from 1945-1977 and that's 32 years. 32 years from the onset of this current phase in 1998 is 2030. As you can see, there have always been ENSO triggered deviations from the predominate multi decadal baseline going back throughout history. Notice also that the last major el nino during a cold phase was 1972-1973, also several years before the flip during the nadir of the second wave of the cold phase....just like 2023-2023. Its not some evoloutionary concept...its simply warmer while the same shit happens.

[40/70 Benchmark]

If we get well into the next decade still in a west Pac dominate -PDO, then its time to reconsider.