2025-2026 ENSO

[LakePaste25]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I haven't looked, but any difference in strength is trivial...if anything, this year ENSO should be more favorable because last year was a Modoki, as opposed to east-central this year. The hallmark of the west warn pool has been a consistent strongly +WPO due to the cold being bottled up near Siberia....thia year we have seen a reprieve from that for the first time since 2021-2022.

Yeah and he even states this earlier. I’m not necessarily trying to call him out for being wrong but i’d like to know what has changed and is giving us a more canonical Nina. 

 

[GaWx]

57 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Yeah and he even states this earlier. I’m not necessarily trying to call him out for being wrong but i’d like to know what has changed and is giving us a more canonical Nina. 

 

 
Today, I asked Eric to address his earlier thoughts about Feb having good prospects to go against the grain of warm Niña Febs should La Niña fade early. He implied that, regardless,

we’re not doing enough.

I then asked him, “What do you mean that we’re not doing enough? How’s ENSO looking to you for Feb?”

 His answer:

I would like to see a big and slow MJO event to go across the entire Warm Pool in January and I am not seeing that. 

These Convectively Kelvin Waves are moving us towards El Nino of course, but the westerly wind bursts from them aren’t as strong or sustained as I’d like them to be to zonally advect the warm pool eastward more quickly. 

Our only ticket out of this crap mid to late winter is to push the warm pool east enough to extend the pacific jet to a point where we get a +PNA/+TNH/+NAO pattern instead of a -PNA/+TNH/+NAO. That seems less likely to me than say a month or so ago given how the Warm Pool has behaved to this point

@40/70 Benchmark

[LakePaste25]

32 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 
Today, I asked Eric to address his earlier thoughts about Feb having good prospects to go against the grain of warm Niña Febs should La Niña fade early. He implied that, regardless,

we’re not doing enough.

I then asked him, “What do you mean that we’re not doing enough? How’s ENSO looking to you for Feb?”

 His answer:

I would like to see a big and slow MJO event to go across the entire Warm Pool in January and I am not seeing that. 

These Convectively Kelvin Waves are moving us towards El Nino of course, but the westerly wind bursts from them aren’t as strong or sustained as I’d like them to be to zonally advect the warm pool eastward more quickly. 

Our only ticket out of this crap mid to late winter is to push the warm pool east enough to extend the pacific jet to a point where we get a +PNA/+TNH/+NAO pattern instead of a -PNA/+TNH/+NAO. That seems less likely to me than say a month or so ago given how the Warm Pool has behaved to this point

@40/70 Benchmark

Yeah i guess my question is why we need the warm pool to extend east this year and not last year. For feb it makes sense. What is different about this January vs. last January when we had a +PNA?