2025-2026 ENSO

[donsutherland1]

Just a brief note, the probability that the warmth will break through into the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas to close December has increased in recent days.  The widespread warmth elsewhere in much of the CONUS and cold in NW Canada and Alaska remain intact. The forecast EPO+/PNA- seems sufficiently strong to offset the combination of a neutral AO and negative NAO even into parts of the Northeast now. Previously, the EPO was forecast to be mainly negative for the close of December.

EPS from Wednesday 0z:

EPS from Today 0z:

[EasternLI]

Regardless of what happens with this blocking potential. I think there's a pretty good chance of popping a +PNA after that first week of January. Via Pacific wave break. I can make a longer post about that tomorrow.

[EastonSN+]

14 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Todays Euro Weeklies are still not great by any means but they are a bit colder/less mild during 3 weeks of the 4 weeks starting with week 2:

12/29-1/4 yesterday

 

12/29-1/4 today

1/12-18 yesterday

 

1/12-18 today

 

1/5-11 was also a little colder today

**Edited for corrections needed in my captioning because I had “today” and “yesterday” reversed. Today’s are less mild as I said.

Just looking at those pics it looks like non stop blocked (neg NAO) vs. Central ridge. Pattern stuck.

[EastonSN+]

42 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Just a brief note, the probability that the warmth will break through into the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas to close December has increased in recent days.  The widespread warmth elsewhere in much of the CONUS and cold in NW Canada and Alaska remain intact. The forecast EPO+/PNA- seems sufficiently strong to offset the combination of a neutral AO and negative NAO even into parts of the Northeast now. Previously, the EPO was forecast to be mainly negative for the close of December.

EPS from Wednesday 0z:

EPS from Today 0z:

At least good for energy savings.

[MJO812]

39 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

At least good for energy savings.

Its winter. It is supposed to be cold.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Just a brief note, the probability that the warmth will break through into the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas to close December has increased in recent days.  The widespread warmth elsewhere in much of the CONUS and cold in NW Canada and Alaska remain intact. The forecast EPO+/PNA- seems sufficiently strong to offset the combination of a neutral AO and negative NAO even into parts of the Northeast now. Previously, the EPO was forecast to be mainly negative for the close of December.

EPS from Wednesday 0z:

EPS from Today 0z:

Wow, who could have seen this coming....(looks in mirror and raises hand)-

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Ill ask my work colleague as I am also interested if there is something out there. I don't see why there wouldn't be. I start vacation this weekend into the new year so I'll have free time to finally catch up on things online (thankfully). I know I keep saying this but I will set up the thread this weekend to chat about RONI.

Im still surprised so many folks are caught off guard by this warm up and the potential of it being an extensive one at that, I wouldn't go as far as to say we are 'torching' but some areas especially in the southern plains and even lower midwest could hit record territory. Been beating this warm drum since about the beginning of the month.

Even with the prospects of a deep -NAO coming up this does not cause any bit of a cooldown for much of the east after christmas into the new year, as should be expected. I would not be surprised to see temps get to average if not slightly below average a few times during the week before the end of the year but overall much of the cold that has been across the eastern 1/3rd of the country should take a solid beating on the monthly scale. The cold is locked in Alaska and NW Canada I do expect as we get into the new year and especially after the first week for us to push a more normal state temp wise and eventually that cold should dislodge and make a run into the CONUS. 

We should know the models have a hard time grasping these types of pattern evolving (the potential retrogression) just like they tend to rush a -NAO out much quicker than reality suggests.

It's because they are going by guidance. This is the benefit of putting in the work all summer and fall to develop your own seasonal paradigm...are you right 100% of the time? God, no....but you become more adept at thinking critically and aren't enslaved to capricious and inaccurate long range guidance. When you are wrong, you grow from it if you put in the effort to understand why.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Mid January is the next window....+TNH will be the vehicle for change if my idea is right, followed by big strat disruption in February to set up for an interesting finish.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Still early, but so far my biggest error is mixing up the WPO and EPO....I did the same thing last year. Those are tough to call on a seasonal scale.