2025-2026 ENSO

[raindancewx]

From what I can see, no relevance for Dec, Feb, Mar for East Coast temps where it snows / where nor'easters are important.

For the alarmists out there you can make the case whatever importance that was there in January is also rapidly diminishing - almost all of the East Coast in the 10+ inch avg snowfall climo zone is now in the borderline irrelevant correlation zone. The deeper blue zone is way south of where it is on the longer term map...

[Stormchaserchuck1]

March has a high -PNA/-NAO and +PNA/+NAO correlation.. wedges the SE ridge to near neutral. This is definitely a pattern though.. the lack of benchmark storms is because 80% of our Winter months have been -PNA since 2018

But there is a strong, strong correlation with US Temps and the SOI pre-1948. I suggest you check it out. I was only calling what I saw as SE ridge/NW trough -PNA, without looking at the North Pacific H5 (no data before 1948). It is possible the total composite of the 1948-2020 dataset is not big enough, if that is possible. Late 1800s - 1950, the SOI indicating a La Nina/El Nino was strongly correlated to Winter US Temperatures. 

[Coach McGuirk]

Weak La-Nina expected, I expect something like last year.  Colder than average and the storms go south. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 hours ago, Coach McGuirk said:

Weak La-Nina expected, I expect something like last year.  Colder than average and the storms go south. 

The difference is that we have a deep -IOD and Nino 1+2 is in an actual la nina state. I feel like temps will be well above average and the storms will miss to the North and east. Areas of coastal Maine will probably have the best chance for above average snowfall, maybe Boston. But there will be a very sharp cutoff to the south and west, places like Washington DC and Baltimore are almost certainly going to have another low snowfall season, probably even Philly and NYC.

[snowman19]

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

March has a high -PNA/-NAO and +PNA/+NAO correlation.. wedges the SE ridge to near neutral. This is definitely a pattern though.. the lack of benchmark storms is because 80% of our Winter months have been -PNA since 2018

But there is a strong, strong correlation with US Temps and the SOI pre-1948. I suggest you check it out. I was only calling what I saw as SE ridge/NW trough -PNA, without looking at the North Pacific H5 (no data before 1948). It is possible the total composite of the 1948-2020 dataset is not big enough, if that is possible. Late 1800s - 1950, the SOI indicating a La Nina/El Nino was strongly correlated to Winter US Temperatures. 

The SOI connection during winter works during El Nino’s. When there is a big negative SOI drop during a Nino, it corresponds to an east coast trough afterwards. That said, that connection does not work during La Nina’s, even though a certain meteorologist from Pennsylvania says it does for subscription money

[MJO812]

4 hours ago, Coach McGuirk said:

Weak La-Nina expected, I expect something like last year.  Colder than average and the storms go south. 

Storm track should be further north this season.  

[MJO812]

48 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The difference is that we have a deep -IOD and Nino 1+2 is in an actual la nina state. I feel like temps will be well above average and the storms will miss to the North and east. Areas of coastal Maine will probably have the best chance for above average snowfall, maybe Boston. But there will be a very sharp cutoff to the south and west, places like Washington DC and Baltimore are almost certainly going to have another low snowfall season, probably even Philly and NYC.

Alot of conflicting winter outlooks out there right now. I would check back in December to see where we are.

[bluewave]

21 hours ago, FPizz said:

I've had 2 50" seasons since 2016 (the magic year), 17/18 (53") and 20/21 (51", I'm 37 miles as the crow flies away, so pretty much the same exact climate.  Our snow averages are different by 2").  With some very slight adjustments in storm track (probably less than 20 miles) NYC could have had upper 40s to low 50s in those seasons as well (they had 41" in 17/18 and 39" in 20/21).  I think that is where "luck" comes into play (being the "winner" vs "loser" in snow cutoffs/being in the best banding) and not CC.  

NYC was too warm both winters to reach 50” of snow while your area was colder. Nearly all the seasons that NYC had 50” or greater of snow were closer to 32.0° like your area was.

In 17-18 when your area had 53.0” the DJF average at SMQ was 31.9°. NYC only finished with 40.9° and the DJF average temperature was 36.3°. Same went for 20-21 when your area had 51.0” and the SMQ average temperature was 32.5”. NYC had 38.6” in 20-21 with an average temperature of 36.1”. 

Just going a small distance inland from the coast can have a large difference in snowfall when the temperatures are marginal. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The difference is that we have a deep -IOD and Nino 1+2 is in an actual la nina state. I feel like temps will be well above average and the storms will miss to the North and east. Areas of coastal Maine will probably have the best chance for above average snowfall, maybe Boston. But there will be a very sharp cutoff to the south and west, places like Washington DC and Baltimore are almost certainly going to have another low snowfall season, probably even Philly and NYC.

I do see some signs that there maybe some late redevelopers.

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

-NAO can actually be more of a hinderance up here on average....but as we say, there are exceptions. NAO is often more about modulating duration up here. I think the PNA is actually pretty crucial to high-end events, especially south of NYC, but even up here to an extent. Tough to dig enough in the absence of a well placed ridge out by Idaho or there abouts.

Yea, this is what I was getting at...I see what raindance is saying on it not mattering as much for the particulars, but it's tough to a great phase on the east coast without it. It can still happen if it's mainly N stream, bu that takes a lot of folks essentially out of the game.

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

March has a high -PNA/-NAO and +PNA/+NAO correlation.. wedges the SE ridge to near neutral. This is definitely a pattern though.. the lack of benchmark storms is because 80% of our Winter months have been -PNA since 2018

But there is a strong, strong correlation with US Temps and the SOI pre-1948. I suggest you check it out. I was only calling what I saw as SE ridge/NW trough -PNA, without looking at the North Pacific H5 (no data before 1948). It is possible the total composite of the 1948-2020 dataset is not big enough, if that is possible. Late 1800s - 1950, the SOI indicating a La Nina/El Nino was strongly correlated to Winter US Temperatures. 

 

[donsutherland1]

Currently, I am playing with a three-step analog construction method that incorporates ENSO evolution, forecast winter ENSO, and major teleconnections, using root mean square error (RMSE) values to rank potential 500 mb analogs. I am using the 1990-present period to represent the contemporary climate state with its increasingly widespread warm SSTAs and growing incidence of marine heatwaves. I had been considering just using the last 30 years of data but decided to start a little earlier at 1990. 
Below are maps using the top three analogs. Interestingly enough, 2021-22, which I discussed previously, was among them.

Fall 2025:

Winter 2025-2026:

Fall to Date (through October 14):

So far, there are some big differences in the Pacific domain with the most anomalous trough and ridge displaced well north of what the analog group suggests. But this early data covers just over 48% of the fall season.

Winter 2025-2026 ECMWF Forecast:

Personally, I do not like the use of 2011-12, but I didn't exclude it from this analysis, because this exercise is aimed at developing cases objectively without human subjectivity. One case that I have among my current mix 2024-25 didn't come up in this exercise. This exercise is for purposes of illustration and learning. It will not affect my final choices. Unless there are some big changes, I won't include 2011-12. In contrast, 2024-25 still seems worth including to me. The common reference to 2021-22 gives me added confidence that its emergence as a strong example is real.

Ultimately, this exercise is about trying to develop a more objective approach toward picking seasonal cases. If there is promise, I might try adding some additional variables e.g., QBO.

Finally, it should be noted that even zonal-looking 500 mb patterns do not preclude periods of synoptic differences e.g., blocking. I suspect that there will be several periods of blocking this coming winter. 

[donsutherland1]

Correlations with teleconnections e.g., the PNA, provide one perspective in addressing questions e.g., will it snow? But to get a better understanding, one needs to look more deeply. For example, the spread of PNA values for snow events can result in a low correlation. However, if one categorizes events by PNA- or PNA+, one can get distinctive differences in the frequency of events e.g., just over two-thirds of New York City's measurable snow events during winter occur when the PNA is positive.

Here's daily snowfall and PNA data for New York City's Central Park:

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I do see some signs that there maybe some late redevelopers.

Definitely more Miller Bs this winter compared to last winter. 

[FPizz]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

NYC was too warm both winters to reach 50” of snow while your area was colder. Nearly all the seasons that NYC had 50” or greater of snow were closer to 32.0° like your area was.

In 17-18 when your area had 53.0” the DJF average at SMQ was 31.9°. NYC only finished with 40.9° and the DJF average temperature was 36.3°. Same went for 20-21 when your area had 51.0” and the SMQ average temperature was 32.5”. NYC had 38.6” in 20-21 with an average temperature of 36.1”. 

Just going a small distance inland from the coast can have a large difference in snowfall when the temperatures are marginal. 

 https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/storm-archive.  

https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/

Look over all the storm tracks from these amazing archives.  Plenty examples of where NY got more than here and the reason why, storm tracks.  The ave temp difference is mainly from NY not radiating on clear nights.  Like last night for example, I was 37 and NY 50, hence the differences in average.  On cloudy nights, we are usually similar and same with nearly all daytime highs.  What makes the temps marginal in nearly all winter storms in our area, big or small, has to do with the track. Many times, just a 5-10 mile difference in any direction in track can mean rain vs snow.  That is the reason why I reached 50 2x and they didn't.  Not because on clear nights I radiate so I am colder. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Currently, I am playing with a three-step analog construction method that incorporates ENSO evolution, forecast winter ENSO, and major teleconnections, using root mean square error (RMSE) values to rank potential 500 mb analogs. I am using the 1990-present period to represent the contemporary climate state with its increasingly widespread warm SSTAs and growing incidence of marine heatwaves. I had been considering just using the last 30 years of data but decided to start a little earlier at 1990. 
Below are maps using the top three analogs. Interestingly enough, 2021-22, which I discussed previously, was among them.

Fall 2025:

Winter 2025-2026:

Fall to Date (through October 14):

So far, there are some big differences in the Pacific domain with the most anomalous trough and ridge displaced well north of what the analog group suggests. But this early data covers just over 48% of the fall season.

Winter 2025-2026 ECMWF Forecast:

Personally, I do not like the use of 2011-12, but I didn't exclude it from this analysis, because this exercise is aimed at developing cases objectively without human subjectivity. One case that I have among my current mix 2024-25 didn't come up in this exercise. This exercise is for purposes of illustration and learning. It will not affect my final choices. Unless there are some big changes, I won't include 2011-12. In contrast, 2024-25 still seems worth including to me. The common reference to 2021-22 gives me added confidence that its emergence as a strong example is real.

Ultimately, this exercise is about trying to develop a more objective approach toward picking seasonal cases. If there is promise, I might try adding some additional variables e.g., QBO.

Finally, it should be noted that even zonal-looking 500 mb patterns do not preclude periods of synoptic differences e.g., blocking. I suspect that there will be several periods of blocking this coming winter. 

Don, excellent work. Defeitely jives with a lot my stuff. While I did see value in 2012-2013, I felt like there was a bit too much of a warm ENSO flavor for inclusion, at least early on in the season.

[George001]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Definitely more Miller Bs this winter compared to last winter. 

I am very excited about what I am seeing this fall. It is still early but things are looking better and better for a big winter in New England. 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, George001 said:

I am very excited about what I am seeing this fall. It is still early but things are looking better and better for a big winter in New England. 

I think New England will do well with a more prominent SE ridge compared to last winter.

The ridge should also help us out here in NYC but its always tricky here living near the water. 

Should be a great winter for the lakes and interior.

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, George001 said:

I am very excited about what I am seeing this fall. It is still early but things are looking better and better for a big winter in New England. 

You were pretty pessimistic the last couple of years.

[anthonymm]

26 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I think New England will do well with a more prominent SE ridge compared to last winter.

The ridge should also help us out here in NYC but its always tricky here living near the water. 

Should be a great winter for the lakes and interior.

Big winter for north of immediate SW CT coast. Below that latitude SE ridge and +AO are killers. Wouldn't be surprised if Boston and co catch 50" and no one in nyc and south see at most 10".

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

 https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/storm-archive.  

https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/

Look over all the storm tracks from these amazing archives.  Plenty examples of where NY got more than here and the reason why, storm tracks.  The ave temp difference is mainly from NY not radiating on clear nights.  Like last night for example, I was 37 and NY 50, hence the differences in average.  On cloudy nights, we are usually similar and same with nearly all daytime highs.  What makes the temps marginal in nearly all winter storms in our area, big or small, has to do with the track. Many times, just a 5-10 mile difference in any direction in track can mean rain vs snow.  That is the reason why I reached 50 2x and they didn't.  Not because on clear nights I radiate so I am colder. 

There are two ways for winter temperatures to have an effect on snowfall amounts for any given location. The first is through the average winter temperatures. The second way is the temperatures on the days that the precipitation falls.

Even during winters with favorable colder storm tracks for NYC, they don’t reach 50” on the season if the overall winter average is much above 32.0°.  So tracks which used to produce heavier snows in a colder climate now produce less as the temperatures become more marginal.

The reason you reached 50” in the seasons that NYC didn’t is a function of the colder temperatures where you live. Plus the temperatures aloft are also colder in interior Northern NJ than they are closer to NYC. Many times the coastal fronts stall out just to the north and west of NYC leading to a slower mix or changeover to rain for those areas.
 

[MJO812]

37 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Big winter for north of immediate SW CT coast. Below that latitude SE ridge and +AO are killers. Wouldn't be surprised if Boston and co catch 50" and no one in nyc and south see at most 10".

You really think this winter will not be good ? There are no signs of a crappy winter right now. Yes its early right now so let's see in November.

This looks like an average to maybe slightly above average winter for Philly and NYC.

 

[MJO812]

48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You were pretty pessimistic the last couple of years.

Maybe he can see in the future .

[MJO812]

Meteorologist Bobby Martrich from EPAWA likes a +TNH pattern with a  -EPO  for this winter.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You really think this winter will not be good ? There are no signs of a crappy winter right now. Yes its early right now so let's see in November.

This looks like an average to maybe slightly above average winter for Philly and NYC.

 

Full defense (mechanism) mode.

[snowman19]

This jet extension was well modeled on the ensembles 2 weeks ago and it’s verifying. Maybe (hopefully) the models will have some clue about the long range this coming winter