2025-2026 ENSO

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Even if 22-23 is a good analog winter, that’s only one analog, which has little statistical weight on its own.

 

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Assuming it is, they're never exactly the same and small variations can make a big difference with the final results.

There's the pro version and weenie version right there! Lol

[brooklynwx99]

4 hours ago, anthonymm said:

So is 22-23 a good analog year? If so coastal mid atl-sne is screwed.

it isn't. last year is actually the best analog that i've found

[brooklynwx99]

5 hours ago, jm1220 said:

It’s not rotten luck. The Pacific Jet oriented in a way and strength that systematically destroyed our chances especially south of I-90 to PHL. Historically when it’s been cold enough in NYC it’s found a way to snow because there would be a PNA ridge that would stick around long enough or NAO blocking to slow the pattern down. Now the Pacific Jet knocks it all down like bowling pins and storms either can’t amplify in time or amplify too much. 

I suppose you can say that the Pacific jet helped the for parts of the MA and South then, which saw snowfall far above normal last winter