2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, cmillzz said:

No surprise it’s been such a warm March thus far. Classic warm mid-latitudes pattern that will continue for the foreseeable future outside of the brief St. Patrick’s day cold shot

Indeed. I count only ~6 days of cold in the bulk of the E US: 3/13 and 3/16-20. But the 2nd one is quite intense for mid-March and I’ll thoroughly enjoy it as this short period of false winter gives us down here relief from the false summer!

 A -PNA, +AO, and +EPO are aiding the warmth along with MJO phases 5 and 6 through yesterday. Those two have averaged the warmest phases during March following a Niña winter. The main opponent is and will continue to be the -WPO, which in combo with MJO phase 8 (2nd coldest March Niña phase) is likely what’s going to allow the brief two cold periods.

[snowman19]

[snowfan789]

15 hours ago, MJO812 said:

It has been a very weird winter . The northeast has been staying cold all winter  besides this week while the rest of the country is mild.

NYC has more snow so far than Denver which is unheard of this late in the season . Im up to 47 inches here in Brooklyn NY. 

You would think that this upcoming mild period would bold well for the west but the trough is too far north. 

Honestly, snow is way more important to the health of the environment and economy in a lot of the West compared to a lot of the East. I say this as a former New England resident who knows full well how fun a snowy and cold pattern for the East can be. So, this incredibly warm winter for the West really is bad news for reasons well beyond snow and cold being enjoyable.

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

Indeed. I count only ~6 days of cold in the bulk of the E US: 3/13 and 3/16-20. But the 2nd one is quite intense for mid-March and I’ll thoroughly enjoy it as this short period of false winter gives us down here relief from the false summer!

 A -PNA, +AO, and +EPO are aiding the warmth along with MJO phases 5 and 6 through yesterday. Those two have averaged the warmest phases during March following a Niña winter. The main opponent is and will continue to be the -WPO, which in combo with MJO phase 8 (2nd coldest March Niña phase) is likely what’s going to allow the brief two cold periods.

The warmth yesterday and today was very impressive here (70s) as will be the cold early next week. Beyond that, I expect pretty mundane spring weather here in the Lakes for a while. Not warm and not cold.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, snowfan789 said:

Honestly, snow is way more important to the health of the environment and economy in a lot of the West compared to a lot of the East. I say this as a former New England resident who knows full well how fun a snowy and cold pattern for the East can be. So, this incredibly warm winter for the West really is bad news for reasons well beyond snow and cold being enjoyable.

Good winter here in southeast MI. Couldve used a bigger storm, but solid cold and snowcover paired with frequent snowfall from late November thru mid Feb made it quite enjoyable for the winter enthusiast. Snow has always been a big part of the economy for northern MI and im sure northern New England too. What happened this winter out west sucks. My brother has heard it firsthand from friends in Denver. But its not like any of us control the weather. If i could wave a magic wand and bury the west i would. But im not going to feel guilty that it was a good winter in the lakes and northeast. Hopefully next year is better for you guys.

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I swear my 2018 analog is just running 2-3 weeks behind...Feb 12, 2018 zonal wind reversal/PV split....March 4, 2026 reversal/PV split....Feb 21-22, 2018 record heat-bomb.....March 9-10, 2026 record heat-bomb. Seasonable cold and stormy pattern will follow, but unfortunately the details don't look to work out as favorably as they did that year....those are the breaks....snowfall is pretty similar, though, as January and February were snowier that year. Unfortunately, that 2-3 weeks will ruin our closing act of snowfall.

 

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Getting the pattern right is hard enough, but also timing it to fit the sequence correctly within these 30 day increments that the calendar is divided into?

Good luck-

 

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wrote in this year's piece about how analogs are not mean to be interpreted as precise, absolute reenactments, but rather cast of actors that each have a cameo throughout the course of a film .....some of my big ones have showed up....2014 (+TNH), 2022 (+TNH), Latter January big dog, 2000, early season reversal, 2018, late season SSW followed by record warmth. 

 

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Perfect way to develop a composite...come up with a cast of characters, and explain that none of them are intended to be an exact prototype of the coming seasons, and then explain the role that each season will play and when it will appear. This what I love about winter forecasts...such an art form.

 

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

I also wrote about the value of 2015, despite that it was a warm ENSO....highly anomalously cold several week stretch from +TNH regime January into Feb.

 

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Very strong -QBO and high solar is a dead-ringer for +TNH....that crap about solar max always being warm is BS....solar max and conspire with certain stratospheric set ups to facilitate some of the most consistently cold regimes possible.

 

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hey Ray, Good job overall!

 How impactful would you say was the late Nov SSWE?

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Hey Ray, Good job overall!

 How impactful would you say was the late Nov SSWE?

Not very impactful in the traditional sense given that it wasn't a SSW, per se, however, I do feel that the very rare early season reversal predisposes the PV to disruption, and the polar domain to irregularities overall on a seasonal-level.

Here is a composite of the two other seasons that had one:

And this year:

 

I definitely don't think it's a coincidence that we went onto to register a -NAO with high solar, which is exceedingly rare as you know from  your research.

[cmillzz]

This late winter/early spring has been nothing like 2018 thus far IMBY, that’s for sure.

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

This late winter/early spring has been nothing like 2018 thus far IMBY, that’s for sure.

Again, if you had read the post, the timing is about 3 weeks behind 2018...

[40/70 Benchmark]

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Part of the problem is the first reversal attempt narrowly failed...it succeeded on Feb 12, 2018.

[GaWx]

59 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not very impactful in the traditional sense given that it wasn't a SSW, per se, however, I do feel that the very rare early season reversal predisposes the PV to disruption, and the polar domain to irregularities overall on a seasonal-level.

Here is a composite of the two other seasons that had one:

And this year:

 

I definitely don't think it's a coincidence that we went onto to register a -NAO with high solar, which is exceedingly rare as you know from  your research.

Thanks. Based on my calling a -0.25 to +0.25 DJF averaged NAO “neutral”, I actually have 25-26 as neutral due to a -0.11 average. It was easily headed to sub -0.25 with a -0.4 winter to date avg. as of Feb 12th, but the strong +NAO of Feb 13-28 brought the avg. up to -0.11. Nevertheless, the -0.11 is the lowest NAO of a 35+ sunspot winter since 1997-8, quite a notable achievement with sunspots at 105. winter. One has to go all the way back to 1978-9 to find the last true -NAO DJF during an active sunspot winter.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

DJFM NAO is actually going to end up slightly positive. @40/70 Benchmark The N. Atlantic SST Summer predictor index has come within ~0.10 the last two Winters.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

DJFM NAO is actually going to end up slightly positive. @40/70 Benchmark The N. Atlantic SST Summer predictor index has come within ~0.10 the last two Winters.

I know....just speaking of DFJ....we were on the same page with that. Thanks for your work on that, Chuck...I love integrating it into my stuff....it's lined up remarkably well with my polar composite past two years.

[cmillzz]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Again, if you had read the post, the timing is about 3 weeks behind 2018...

Doesn't matter because it's still not going to be anything like 2018, lol.

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

Doesn't matter because it's still not going to be anything like 2018, lol.

Well, in terms of snowfall, which is largely due to indiosyncracies.....first of all, the fact that the colder pattern is coming in nearly 3 weeks later hurts even if all of the storms materialized in an identical fashion. Secondly, the pattern we have coming up could have easily worked out in terms of a large storm on the east coast, but the timing is off, so it goes inland...those are the breaks. You are viewing this from a very reductive perspective......but in any event, snowfall along the east coast is actually ending up pretty similarly to that season, anyway, as January and February were snowier. If you expect an analog to line up 100% perfectly, I think you have some learning to do.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This record warmth occurred in February 2018, a bit over two weeks earlier...also on the heels of the SSW, so while March is warmer this year...February was warmer in 2018. Like I said, timing is off a bit, but similar progression. 

[TheClimateChanger]

10 hours ago, GaWx said:

Indeed. I count only ~6 days of cold in the bulk of the E US: 3/13 and 3/16-20. But the 2nd one is quite intense for mid-March and I’ll thoroughly enjoy it as this short period of false winter gives us down here relief from the false summer!

 A -PNA, +AO, and +EPO are aiding the warmth along with MJO phases 5 and 6 through yesterday. Those two have averaged the warmest phases during March following a Niña winter. The main opponent is and will continue to be the -WPO, which in combo with MJO phase 8 (2nd coldest March Niña phase) is likely what’s going to allow the brief two cold periods.

Do you know when the last day was where the US as a whole was below the 1991-2020 average? It seems like it's been weeks.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, cmillzz said:

Doesn't matter because it's still not going to be anything like 2018, lol.

I think this is more like 2015, just one month forward. February looks like it's going to be the last month of the cold pattern in the East, just as March 2015 was.

I get the feeling that April will torch in the East, and finally see a cool down in the West, like May 2015.

We never get a cold winter and cold spring in the same year anymore.

[GaWx]

Today’s MJO forecasts:

GEFS

 

EPS

[snowman19]

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

Brief break

[snowman19]

42 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Brief break

Winter’s back is broken. All the snowcover is gone, snow mounds/piles are gone. Birds are all back, out singing in the morning. Groundhogs, skunks and chipmunks are out of hibernation. Peepers are back out at night. Flies and bees are out today. Mother Nature says winter is over….

[MJO812]

41 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Winter’s back is broken. All the snowcover is gone, snow mounds/piles are gone. Birds are all back, out singing in the morning. Groundhogs, skunks and chipmunks are out of hibernation. Peepers are back out at night. Flies and bees are out today. Mother Nature says winter is over….

Yep agree winter is done but with a transition to el nino , I am not sure how warm this spring will be.