2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

53 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The world is warmer than it has been and is continuing to warm largely due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Extreme cold periods are becoming warmer and less frequent than they once were. Nevertheless, that does not mean that such cold, when it occurs regionally, should be dismissed out-of-hand. The kind of sustained deep cold that has occurred in the Great Lakes Region and Northeast is uncommon today. It is not trivial. It is one of this winter's highlights. 

For example, New York City saw a 16-day mean temperature below 20° for the 125th time since record-keeping began in 1869. However, it was the first such occurrence since 1982. That was 44 years ago. That rarity makes it noteworthy. Moreover, it's plausible that at least some of us might not see such sustained and deep cold again during our lifetimes given how infrequent it has become.

That places like Phoenix are on course for their warmest winter on record does not minimize the cold that has just occurred elsewhere. That it has occurred in a warmer and warming world makes it all the more remarkable.

Don, once you adjust normals upward to take into account GW, is deep cold still about as common as it ever was? Example: adjust normals upward by 3F vs what normals were from around 1900. After doing so, is same degree of extreme cold about as common as it was then?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Subsurface is torching. 

Should I start an El Nino thread for 26-27? 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I made a new thread

This one should still continue through the Winter, as effects of yearly ENSO state are felt through the following March. 

[donsutherland1]

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

Don, once you adjust normals upward to take into account GW, is deep cold still about as common as it ever was? Example: adjust normals upward by 3F vs what normals were from around 1900. After doing so, is same degree of extreme cold about as common as it was then?

If one takes off about 2.5°, they'd be about as common as they once were.

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think the consistency of 10s and low 20s for highs and lows in the 0s.. for like a 3 week period down here is pretty impressive. I held 8" snowcover for 2.5 weeks, which is really rare. This happened without real strong upper latitude patterns, like a -NAO or -EPO, although the AO was severely negative:

This is due to inadequacy of relying on the standard teleconnections with patterns like this. It was a weaker version of January 1994 and 2004. Those patterns were colder and sustained for a month instead of 15-20 days like this one was.

While it doesn’t have a formal name, the key driver of the cold was the 500mb block north of Alaska. That is a very cold teleconnection in the East.

You can find other examples such as 12-26-17 to 1-8-18. This was the coldest 16 day period around NYC Metro since then.

 
 

 

 

Minimum 16-Day Mean Avg Temperature 
for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	16.8	2017-12-26 through 2018-01-10	0
2	16.9	2017-12-25 through 2018-01-09	0
3	17.1	2017-12-24 through 2018-01-08	0
4	17.2	2026-01-24 through 2026-02-08	0
5	17.5	2026-01-25 through 2026-02-09	0

 

Minimum 16-Day Mean Avg Temperature 
for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	20.8	2017-12-26 through 2018-01-10	0
2	20.8	2017-12-25 through 2018-01-09	0
3	20.9	2026-01-24 through 2026-02-08	0

 

Minimum 16-Day Mean Avg Temperature 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	19.7	2017-12-26 through 2018-01-10	0
2	19.7	2017-12-25 through 2018-01-09	0
3	20.1	2026-01-24 through 2026-02-08	0

 

[EastonSN+]

4 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Subsurface is torching. 

Should I start an El Nino thread for 26-27? 

Hope your not giving up on the remainder of this winter. I see in the MA forum your not a big fan of the RNA.

[EastonSN+]

Hoping there is enough time to reach phase 8 again before mid March....

[EastonSN+]

Not a Horrible look..

 

[EastonSN+]

This looks to support some blocking 

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Hoping there is enough time to reach phase 8 again before mid March....

 If I get enough time, I’ll analyze the Baltimore daily temperatures for some of the MJO phases in (post) La Niña years in March as a followup to my 20 Feb MJO La Niña MJO phase analysis. If I do, I might start with 8. I’d look at the same 20.

[LakePaste25]

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Subsurface is torching. 

Should I start an El Nino thread for 26-27? 

May be lingering effects, but it’s safe to say that La niña is done for. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

May be lingering effects, but it’s safe to say that La niña is done for. 

Regardless, it’s important for continuity/looking back that we keep most of the posts specifically pertaining to the rest of this cold season in this thread. Besides the lag of ENSO related effects, these threads are obviously about far more than ENSO, itself.

[GaWx]

 The chances for an overall Feb -PNA are good as of now with a strong -PNA upcoming. This goes through Feb 24th:

AO now rising sharply:

 

NAO is, like the AO, also rising. However, it remains to be seen whether or not this rise will be enough to get the DJF NAO >-0.25, the # I’ve always used to classify a winter as -NAO vs neutral. DJ is at -0.5. In order for DJF to rise above -0.25, the Feb NAO would need to end up >+0.25, which is a decent possibility per this:

[FPizz]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Hoping there is enough time to reach phase 8 again before mid March....

[EastonSN+]

20 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The chances for an overall Feb -PNA are good as of now with a strong -PNA upcoming. This goes through Feb 24th:

AO now rising sharply:

 

NAO is, like the AO, also rising. However, it remains to be seen whether or not this rise will be enough to get the DJF NAO >-0.25, the # I’ve always used to classify a winter as -NAO vs neutral. DJ is at -0.5. In order for DJF to rise above -0.25, the Feb NAO would need to end up >+0.25, which is a decent possibility per this:

Not looking great as of now for cold snowy for the east coast. Hope changes soon.

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Unfortunately the EC has a tendency to kill waves. GEFS is usually more accurate.

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Not looking great as of now for cold snowy for the east coast. Hope changes soon.

A negative PNA is fine for us ( not too negative)

[snowman19]

All joking aside, this has been a very dry winter and drought conditions are worsening. We are going to have big issues this spring into the summer if we don’t start getting a lot of rain. As @bluewave pointed out, the end of January snowstorm didn’t have a lot of liquid equivalent, just very good ratios with the Siberian cold that was in place, it’s not going to melt down to much…..
 

[NyWxGuy]

-NAO rising to positive. -PNA becoming deeper. Meteorology over modelology, it shouldn't take much for us to understand that is opposite of the a good winter pattern. That's about as bad as it gets 

[GaWx]

8 minutes ago, NyWxGuy said:

-NAO rising to positive. -PNA becoming deeper. Meteorology over modelology, it shouldn't take much for us to understand that is opposite of the a good winter pattern. That's about as bad as it gets 

Hoping after a mild week 2 for an improvement to mainly NN in the SE late month into March!

[EastonSN+]

23 minutes ago, NyWxGuy said:

-NAO rising to positive. -PNA becoming deeper. Meteorology over modelology, it shouldn't take much for us to understand that is opposite of the a good winter pattern. That's about as bad as it gets 

The RNA is fine starting mid month as mentioned by Don. However yes we need the AO to return to negative.

[GaWx]

Warmth won’t last per EWs for last few days, including today’s, as SE goes back down to back and forth averaging NN and NE goes back to cold: these are for 2/23-3/1

 

[LakePaste25]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Warmth won’t last per EWs for last few days, including today’s, as SE goes back down to back and forth averaging NN and NE goes back to cold: these are for 2/23-3/1

 

That baja ridging is going to be key if we are getting any help with blocking on the atlantic side.  

[snowman19]

41 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

That baja ridging is going to be key if we are getting any help with blocking on the atlantic side.  

DT, who has been on the cold and snowy train in the east since November, vehemently disagrees that arctic cold is coming back the last week of this month into early March. He does however, leave the door open for a possible change back to cold around mid-March

“* **US GRAIN WX ALERT ***

MAJOR PATTERN CCHANGE UNDER WAY
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA

End to the arctic air mass out breaks Feb 15-28

Much wetter pattern for the Plains & Midwest

Although there continues to be considerable talk and speculation about a Polar Vortex disruption occurring in late FEN/ early March it needs to be pointed out that not every PV disruption means an arctic outbreak in the Central and Eastern CONUS.

There seems to be this General obsession with this idea which is based on East Coast winter snowstorm sexual fantasies are not based on science.

I think the idea of a late February pattern flip back to severe cold with additional Arctic air mass outbreaks is extremely unlikely. And that might also be the case for early March.

IMAGE = the latest projections from 3 different models on the MJO. As you can see all three models show a rather strong MJO that moves through phases 3 4 and 5 over the next two weeks. And it is clearly implies that the MJO is headed for Phase 6.

IMAGE = temperature anomalies in FEB when the MJO anomalies are in phases 3 4 and 5. As you can see in Phases 4 and 5, temperatures above normal or much above east of the Mississippi River.

And if we get into Phase 6 in February… well the temperature profile shows an exceptional warmth across the eastern US.

IMAGE precipitation anomalies when the MJO is in Phase 3 4 and 5 in FEB. As you can see it is a much wetter pattern for the Midwest and the East Coast in general.

Given the extremely dry winter having a much wetter pattern as we head towards Spring is essential and very important .

IMAGE = The North America weather regime forecast from Simon Lee over in the UK. This forecast calls for a Pacific Ridge pattern to dominate North America starting February 12/13 and continuing into the middle of March.

This is NOT a good pattern for those wanting a late season cold air outbreak in late February or early March over the eastern US.

It is however an excellent pattern if you are into farming as this kind of pattern will produce either normal or above normal rainfall for the plains the Midwest and the Deep South

finally I am NOT ruling out the idea of a March reversal. Indeed some of the MJO models show it moving back into Phase 7 / 8 in mid-March. The weekly models are also showing a colder pattern across the Eastern conus with the return of high latitude blocking in Greenland and some kind of Ridge trying to reform in western Canada and the Rockies.

but that is a long way away.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

52 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

DT, who has been on the cold and snowy train in the east since November, vehemently disagrees that arctic cold is coming back the last week of this month into early March. He does however, leave the door open for a possible change back to cold around mid-March

“* **US GRAIN WX ALERT ***

MAJOR PATTERN CCHANGE UNDER WAY
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA

End to the arctic air mass out breaks Feb 15-28

Much wetter pattern for the Plains & Midwest

Although there continues to be considerable talk and speculation about a Polar Vortex disruption occurring in late FEN/ early March it needs to be pointed out that not every PV disruption means an arctic outbreak in the Central and Eastern CONUS.

There seems to be this General obsession with this idea which is based on East Coast winter snowstorm sexual fantasies are not based on science.

I think the idea of a late February pattern flip back to severe cold with additional Arctic air mass outbreaks is extremely unlikely. And that might also be the case for early March.

IMAGE = the latest projections from 3 different models on the MJO. As you can see all three models show a rather strong MJO that moves through phases 3 4 and 5 over the next two weeks. And it is clearly implies that the MJO is headed for Phase 6.

IMAGE = temperature anomalies in FEB when the MJO anomalies are in phases 3 4 and 5. As you can see in Phases 4 and 5, temperatures above normal or much above east of the Mississippi River.

And if we get into Phase 6 in February… well the temperature profile shows an exceptional warmth across the eastern US.

IMAGE precipitation anomalies when the MJO is in Phase 3 4 and 5 in FEB. As you can see it is a much wetter pattern for the Midwest and the East Coast in general.

Given the extremely dry winter having a much wetter pattern as we head towards Spring is essential and very important .

IMAGE = The North America weather regime forecast from Simon Lee over in the UK. This forecast calls for a Pacific Ridge pattern to dominate North America starting February 12/13 and continuing into the middle of March.

This is NOT a good pattern for those wanting a late season cold air outbreak in late February or early March over the eastern US.

It is however an excellent pattern if you are into farming as this kind of pattern will produce either normal or above normal rainfall for the plains the Midwest and the Deep South

finally I am NOT ruling out the idea of a March reversal. Indeed some of the MJO models show it moving back into Phase 7 / 8 in mid-March. The weekly models are also showing a colder pattern across the Eastern conus with the return of high latitude blocking in Greenland and some kind of Ridge trying to reform in western Canada and the Rockies.

but that is a long way away.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

While I believe it could still turn colder to end February as per the ECMWF weeklies, I tend to agree that the risk of a return of severe cold in the East is probably largely over.