2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

My response to the "there must be a very warm month imminent because of CC" is this....the NE has been by far the warmest quadrant of the country over the past decade, so TBH, it should not be a surprise that this has started to reverse over the past 1.5 winter seasons. I understand the implication of the west warm pool in forcing that type of pattern modulation, but I have always posited that mother nature will manufacture a way to maintain some semblance of an equilibrium moving forward, and it seems as though we have started to see that. I do expect snowfall to follow suite sooner rather than later, whether that be this year or in subsequent seasons.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Does anyone have that literature concerning 6-7 MJO pulse triggering a SSW?? I would like to view that....wasn't aware, but it's so neat that I came to that same conclusion on the Feb SSW using alternative methodology. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Does anyone have that literature concerning 6-7 MJO pulse triggering a SSW?? I would like to view that....wasn't aware, but it's so neat that I came to that same conclusion on the Feb SSW using alternative methodology. 

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2025GL117289

 

Here's a recent publication I found. Normally just lurk here. So far, great outlook. 

[Krs4Lfe]

9 hours ago, bncho said:

This might be a rare year where the NYC indicator of 4"+ snow in December will not work out regarding above average snowfall for NYC for the season. I'm not sure how they'll make up enough ground come spring. I would agree with @bluewave regarding the fact that there would have to be a NESIS KU for NYC to reach above average snowfall, and although the late-January pattern into early-February might look cold it's not a pattern that screams KU at all. If there's a viable pathway for NYC to reach above average snowfall I'd be intrigued as to how they get there—some of the more knowledgable posters can chime in here.

I agree, I have sent many times that the only thing going for us in terms of snowfall prospects is the fact in New York City has had about 8 inches of snow so far. Early season snow totals in a La Niña winter or are usually a good indication of what happens in the rest of winter. But time is ticking, and there is nothing on the horizon. We will need an extraordinary February to reach our seasonal snowfall.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2025GL117289

 

Here's a recent publication I found. Normally just lurk here. So far, great outlook. 

Thanks, man...will probably reference this in the February preview to buttress my pre-season work.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Krs4Lfe said:

I agree, I have sent many times that the only thing going for us in terms of snowfall prospects is the fact in New York City has had about 8 inches of snow so far. Early season snow totals in a La Niña winter or are usually a good indication of what happens in the rest of winter. But time is ticking, and there is nothing on the horizon. We will need an extraordinary February to reach our seasonal snowfall.

No, you won't. One warning event in February and a big early March coastal.

Only thing NOT going for me is my snow total so far....about the same as you.

[GaWx]

 These CFS ens AAM forecasts are volatile especially for later in the forecast period. So fwiw, the latest forecast mean is the most bullish yet for a rising AAM starting in ~2 weeks and actually going modestly positive (El Nino-like) in ~3 weeks:

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

[snowman19]

 With El Niño favored for next fall/winter, I looked at E US temps during multiyear La Niña Febs that immediately precede El Niño:
1911: cool NE/mild elsewhere
1918: cool NE/mild SE
1972: cool
1976: warm
2009: mild NE/NN SE
2018: warm
2023: warm
 
Feb: SE temps/RDU snow

1911: 1 AN/0”
1918: 3 AN/T and some ZR
1972: 5 BN/1.4” SN/IP
1976: 5 AN/T
2009: 1 AN/T
2018: 7 AN/0”
2023: 9 AN/0”

Average of these 7 Febs at RDU: 3 AN, 0.2” SN/IP

Of the 7:
-one was cold
-two were NN
-four were mild to warm

 So, these analogs favor the [mention=13098]snowman19[/mention]mild Feb thinking in the SE. So, if we get another 2/2014 like I think both[mention=100]40/70 Benchmark[/mention]and Eric Webb are more or less favoring (correct me if I’m wrong), I’d be thrilled since these analogs don’t favor it. 
 
 In the NE, these analogs are mixed with 3 BN and 4 AN.
Here’s the avg of the 7 Febs: check out how warm the SE, Midsouth, lower MidAtlantic, and OH valley are:

This is showing a strong SE ridge signal for February:

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

 With El Niño favored for next fall/winter, I looked at E US temps during multiyear La Niña Febs that immediately precede El Niño:

1911: cool NE/mild elsewhere

1918: cool NE/mild SE

1972: cool

1976: warm

2009: mild NE/NN SE

2018: warm

2023: warm

 

Feb: SE temps/RDU snow

1911: 1 AN/0”
1918: 3 AN/T and some ZR
1972: 5 BN/1.4” SN/IP
1976: 5 AN/T
2009: 1 AN/T
2018: 7 AN/0”
2023: 9 AN/0”

Average of these 7 Febs at RDU: 3 AN, 0.2” SN/IP

Of the 7:
-one was cold
-two were NN
-four were mild to warm

 So, these analogs favor the @snowman19mild Feb thinking in the SE. So, if we get another 2/2014 like I think both@40/70 Benchmarkand Eric Webb are more or less favoring (correct me if I’m wrong), I’d be thrilled since these analogs don’t favor it. 
 
 In the NE, these analogs are mixed with 3 BN and 4 AN.

Here’s the avg of the 7 Febs: check out how warm the SE, Midsouth, lower MidAtlantic, and OH valley are:

 

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This is showing a strong SE ridge signal for February:

 

 

 

 

No argument here.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, you won't. One warning event in February and a big early March coastal.

Only thing NOT going for me is my snow total so far....about the same as you.

You've only had 8"? With your climate its bound to turn around soon with like a 3 foot storm lol.

[Krs4Lfe]

44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Wow that really pours cold water on a flip to a colder regime around 11th or 12th like was expected. Seems like this thaw will last an additional 5 days or so. Was originally 1/6 to 1/11 or 12. Now this shows above normal temps through the 16th. 

[GaWx]

 Today’s GEFS and EPS MJO forecasts both have a 2+ amplitude (strong) phase 6/7 starting in week 2:

-GEFS has 2+ amp phase 6 for Jan 17-21 with a peak at ~2.6 on 1/21 (often strong GEFS forecasted MJOs verify a bit weaker in this region fwiw)

 

-EPS has ~2+ amp phase 6-7 (mainly 7) for Jan 16-21 with a peak at ~2.2 in phase 7 on 1/19 (sometimes EPS forecasted MJOs verify a bit stronger in this region fwiw)

 

- These tell me that the chance for Jan to end up with 20+ days on or inside circle is decreasing.

- The frequency of MJO amps of 2+ in DJF has increased substantially on a multi-decadal basis (climate change suspected):

 

# of days MJO 2+ amplitude per DJF

70s-80s: 11

90s-00s: 17.5

10s-20s: 23

 

 So far, 2025-6 has had 4 days of 2+ amp (Dec 1-4)

 

 These Jans had a 2+ amp phase 6 or 7:

-2024

-2021-18

-2016-3

-2011-8

-2006

-2004

-2002

-1997

-1993-2

-1990-89

-1986

-1979

-1976

 Note how much less common phase 6-7 periods with 2+ amp were in Jan during 1975-2001 (only 30% of the Jans) vs 2002-2025 (67%)!

——————
 Here’s another MJO stat. tidbit:

# of days per phase Jans 2011-25 (465 total days)/% of Jan days per phase

1: 17 (only 4%)

2: 26 (only 6%)

3:   67 (14%)

4:  51 (11%)

5:  57 (12%)

6:  101 (a whopping 22%)

7:  104 (a whopping 22%)

8:  42 (9%)

 

So, since 2011, each of Jan phase 6 and 7 days has been more than twice as common as phase 8 days and a whopping FOUR TO FIVE times as frequent as each of Jan phase 1-2 days!

@bluewave

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

You've only had 8"? With your climate its bound to turn around soon with like a 3 foot storm lol.

8.75". Been a microcosm of the last 8 years for me...I'm always too far in one direction or another, and/or too close/far from the ocean.

Infuriating.

[40/70 Benchmark]

@michsnowfreak31.3" in 1995-1996? Holy $hit....I had 127.5"....that must be the only time in recorded history, and likely ever, that Philly received more in one event than you did for the season. Although 2009-2010 was closer in the Baltimore area...

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

No argument here.

At least in my area, there have really been no blockbuster February’s for snow during La Nina’s going all the way back to the 1950’s. Really the only lone exception was 2013-14, but that was cold-neutral not La Niña. March however is a different story….

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, snowman19 said:

At least in my area, there have really been no blockbuster February’s for snow during La Nina’s going all the way back to the 1950’s. Really the only lone exception was 2013-14, but that was cold-neutral not La Niña. March however is a different story….

2021 was pretty good for my area....1956, 1972...

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2021 was pretty good for my area....1956, 1972...

Yea, I would expect a different story in New England since you guys do better in Nina’s

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Yea, I would expect a different story in New England since you guys do better in Nina’s

Yea, not sure how you did in those particular months of February...2001 was also decent, but I know that sucked for you guys. C and W NE cleaned up that year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Who was it in here that developed the site that computes daily index values? I forgot to bookmark that...

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 12/26/2025 at 1:53 AM, BlizzardWx said:

I do like the direction this is trending. Could finally send the cold south and start to get the STJ going too. 

I think this was you?? Have the link?

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Who was it in here that developed the site that computes daily index values? I forgot to bookmark that...

 

[SnowGoose69]

Chances are even if those MJO forecasts are correct it'll be the 27th or later til any impact on the pattern happens but it would argue February is mild in the east if a strong wave is going through 5 or 6 

[snowman19]

13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Chances are even if those MJO forecasts are correct it'll be the 27th or later til any impact on the pattern happens but it would argue February is mild in the east if a strong wave is going through 5 or 6 

The risk I see is that the -EPO ridge sets up too far to the west (post 1/20) and causes a trough over the west coast

[Krs4Lfe]

Just now, snowman19 said:

The risk I see is that the -EPO ridge sets up too far to the west (post 1/20) and causes a trough over the west coast 

Naturally, that would lead to heights rising in the east. The SER usually flexes during La Ninas later in the season anyway. That can lead to a nice gradient pattern like in 2014 or 2015, or it can link up with the -NAO and torch us for Feb and March like 2023 and 2024

[snowman19]

Naturally, that would lead to heights rising in the east. The SER usually flexes during La Ninas later in the season anyway. That can lead to a nice gradient pattern like in 2014 or 2015, or it can link up with the -NAO and torch us for Feb and March like 2023 and 2024

I’m becoming very confident that there is going to be a SE ridge for February, the question will be how much of a SE ridge that month?

[donsutherland1]

19 hours ago, GaWx said:

Here’s a link to the last video from Michael Clark, done on 12/30 in which he was highly confident and even smug:
 

 From this 12/30 video, he posted a forecast map for 12/31-1/15 showing most of the E US (Minneapolis to SL to ATL eastward) BN. Instead it is headed toward solidly AN. I project Chicago, ATL, and RDU will end up ~+5 to +6 for 12/31-1/15. He forecasted Chic at -3 to -4 and ATL/RDU at -1 to -2. BAM is headed toward a miss of -6 to -9 for 12/31-1/15 in a good portion of the E US!

@donsutherland1

I didn't comment in detail on this due to having the flu.

This outcome doesn't surprise me much. It seems that they continue to have a tendency to swing for the fences (likely in pursuit of clicks/views). Hype prevails on social media, because there is no meaningful consequence for failure. There is no verification.

If one is looking for reasonable idea where it's going to be warmer or colder than normal, taking the consensus of the top 5-10 AmWx monthly forecasters in the nine-city contest run by @Roger Smith would generally beat BAM and probably most of the social media forecasters on a regular basis. No one in the AmWx contest is seeking clicks/views. Thus, there is no incentive to hype. That creates a stronger foundation for robust and objective forecasting.

January will likely provide a nice example. BAM went cold for the SE. The AmWx forecast was warm (consensus forecasts for Atlanta were +1.3° for the top 5 and +1.4° for the top 10. 

 

[GaWx]

Per Eric Webb just now, the anticipation is still strong:

“This is just insane to see. 

Absolute monster westerly wind burst in the tropical West Pacific”

[donsutherland1]

50 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Per Eric Webb just now, the anticipation is still strong:

“This is just insane to see. 

Absolute monster westerly wind burst in the tropical West Pacific”

It will be interesting to see how this plays out. During the 2016-2017 weak La Niña event, which collapsed in January, there was also a powerful WWB. Indeed, the SOI plunged to -33.54 on January 19th. It remains to be seen if that WWB will actually be rivaled, much less surpassed. The 2016-17 La Niña had two days in January where the SOI was -30 or below. No other La Niña event had even one. However, daily SOI values only go back to 1991.

February 2017 was truly a "torch" in much of the eastern half of the U.S. I'm not expecting anything along those lines. But the idea that a cold or very cold outcome for February is a "slam dunk" following a powerful January WWB should it occur as modeled, is probably too simplistic. As noted above, 2016-17 saw the opposite outcome.

A rapidly weakening La Niña would become less of a factor in influencing patterns. As that happens, other variables, many of which cannot be forecast at current lead times, will gain importance. This competition among variables could lead to large variability on a week-to-week basis. The changeable outcome on the extended range of the ECMWF weeklies may be offering an early hint of that variability. For now, at least based on past late-stage weak La Niña events, the best chances for monthly cold anomalies likely are the Plains States, Great Lakes Region, and eastward into the Northeast. Cold anomalies from the Southwest eastward through the Southeast would be far less likely. 

[michsnowfreak]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

8.75". Been a microcosm of the last 8 years for me...I'm always too far in one direction or another, and/or too close/far from the ocean.

Infuriating.

Definitely infuriating but as you know, at some point, itll turn around. 

[GaWx]

 The comparison of the Euro Weekly temp. anom. maps of a week ago and today for Jan 12-18 is fascinating:

Dec 31st run for 1/12-18: La Niñaish sort of look

 

Today’s (Jan 7th) run for 1/12-18: nearly opposite with El Ninoish sort of look!