2025-2026 ENSO

[LakePaste25]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I haven't looked, but any difference in strength is trivial...if anything, this year ENSO should be more favorable because last year was a Modoki, as opposed to east-central this year. The hallmark of the west warn pool has been a consistent strongly +WPO due to the cold being bottled up near Siberia....thia year we have seen a reprieve from that for the first time since 2021-2022.

Yeah and he even states this earlier. I’m not necessarily trying to call him out for being wrong but i’d like to know what has changed and is giving us a more canonical Nina. 

 

[GaWx]

57 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Yeah and he even states this earlier. I’m not necessarily trying to call him out for being wrong but i’d like to know what has changed and is giving us a more canonical Nina. 

 

 
Today, I asked Eric to address his earlier thoughts about Feb having good prospects to go against the grain of warm Niña Febs should La Niña fade early. He implied that, regardless,

we’re not doing enough.

I then asked him, “What do you mean that we’re not doing enough? How’s ENSO looking to you for Feb?”

 His answer:

I would like to see a big and slow MJO event to go across the entire Warm Pool in January and I am not seeing that. 

These Convectively Kelvin Waves are moving us towards El Nino of course, but the westerly wind bursts from them aren’t as strong or sustained as I’d like them to be to zonally advect the warm pool eastward more quickly. 

Our only ticket out of this crap mid to late winter is to push the warm pool east enough to extend the pacific jet to a point where we get a +PNA/+TNH/+NAO pattern instead of a -PNA/+TNH/+NAO. That seems less likely to me than say a month or so ago given how the Warm Pool has behaved to this point

@40/70 Benchmark

[LakePaste25]

32 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 
Today, I asked Eric to address his earlier thoughts about Feb having good prospects to go against the grain of warm Niña Febs should La Niña fade early. He implied that, regardless,

we’re not doing enough.

I then asked him, “What do you mean that we’re not doing enough? How’s ENSO looking to you for Feb?”

 His answer:

I would like to see a big and slow MJO event to go across the entire Warm Pool in January and I am not seeing that. 

These Convectively Kelvin Waves are moving us towards El Nino of course, but the westerly wind bursts from them aren’t as strong or sustained as I’d like them to be to zonally advect the warm pool eastward more quickly. 

Our only ticket out of this crap mid to late winter is to push the warm pool east enough to extend the pacific jet to a point where we get a +PNA/+TNH/+NAO pattern instead of a -PNA/+TNH/+NAO. That seems less likely to me than say a month or so ago given how the Warm Pool has behaved to this point

@40/70 Benchmark

Yeah i guess my question is why we need the warm pool to extend east this year and not last year. For feb it makes sense. What is different about this January vs. last January when we had a +PNA?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 
Today, I asked Eric to address his earlier thoughts about Feb having good prospects to go against the grain of warm Niña Febs should La Niña fade early. He implied that, regardless,

we’re not doing enough.

I then asked him, “What do you mean that we’re not doing enough? How’s ENSO looking to you for Feb?”

 His answer:

I would like to see a big and slow MJO event to go across the entire Warm Pool in January and I am not seeing that. 

These Convectively Kelvin Waves are moving us towards El Nino of course, but the westerly wind bursts from them aren’t as strong or sustained as I’d like them to be to zonally advect the warm pool eastward more quickly. 

Our only ticket out of this crap mid to late winter is to push the warm pool east enough to extend the pacific jet to a point where we get a +PNA/+TNH/+NAO pattern instead of a -PNA/+TNH/+NAO. That seems less likely to me than say a month or so ago given how the Warm Pool has behaved to this point

@40/70 Benchmark

Still doesn't adress why we need thr warm pook to move east to get +TNH.

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Yeah i guess my question is why we need the warm pool to extend east this year and not last year. For feb it makes sense. What is different about this January vs. last January when we had a +PNA?

January is going to be +PNA and the season will average -WPO....very strong statistical evidence. 

[SnowGoose69]

32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

January is going to be +PNA and the season will average -WPO....very strong statistical evidence. 

The 18Z GEFS for the first time from like 360-384 shows signs of a +PNA trying to develop but I'd bet its close to the 12th-15th before any chance of it

[GaWx]

50 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

January is going to be +PNA and the season will average -WPO....very strong statistical evidence. 

The models are pretty unanimous on continuing the -WPO into Jan and the strongly -WPOs in Dec strongly support a -WPO as we know. We also know that the -ENSO -PNA stats since 1983-4 suggest good support for a +PNA Jan. But both the Euro Weeklies and extended GEFS continue to show a -PNA throughout Jan (see images below). Are you saying these models are totally wrong and will correct toward +PNA? If so, why do you think they’re going -PNA? Persistence? (even though I’ve seen the EW predict PNA changes and do well).

[GaWx]

 MJO is in day 3 (12/17-19) of the 3rd phase 8 of this month:

[qg_omega]

53 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

January is going to be +PNA and the season will average -WPO....very strong statistical evidence. 

There is no evidence for a +PNA in January

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

There is no evidence for a +PNA in January

Yes, there is.

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The models are pretty unanimous on continuing the -WPO into Jan and the strongly -WPOs in Dec strongly support a -WPO as we know. We also know that the -ENSO -PNA stats since 1983-4 suggest good support for a +PNA Jan. But both the Euro Weeklies and extended GEFS continue to show a -PNA throughout Jan (see images below). Are you saying these models are totally wrong and will correct toward +PNA? If so, why do you think they’re going -PNA? Persistence? (even though I’ve seen the EW predict PNA changes and do well).

That guidance shows it essentially neutralizing by January 5th...pop a +TNH mid-month....done.

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The 18Z GEFS for the first time from like 360-384 shows signs of a +PNA trying to develop but I'd bet its close to the 12th-15th before any chance of it

Sure...reasonable. 

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That guidance shows it essentially neutralizing by January 5th...pop a +TNH mid-month....done.

 

[LakePaste25]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

January is going to be +PNA and the season will average -WPO....very strong statistical evidence. 

Agreed and makes sense. February here i’m expecting canonical Nina, which is usually a mixed bag of 60+ degree torches, rain/ice/sleet/snow overrunning events as the SE ridge waxes and wanes. January colder and mostly snow.