2025-2026 ENSO

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Looks like the new CFS CHI200 forecast gets the MJO as far as phase 6/7 before it fades then re-emerges it right back into the IO and starts propagating it eastward again. 
 

@bluewave I’m starting to wonder if this is going to be yet another winter of MJO waves hitting a brick wall in phase 6/7….

It’s always a good question to ask as we haven’t had a solid MJO 8 during the winter since January 2022. The standard MJO playbook has been a weakening before reaching 8 and then reloading back into the IO through the MC to WP.

If we do eventually see another MJO 8 again, it probably won’t be forecast much more than a week or two in advance. But I am hoping we can see at least another weak reflection of January 2022 type event a some point in the coming winters.

 

[snowman19]

AAM, which as expected has risen to near neutral after a long period of solid -AAM, is progged to return to La Niña supporting solid -AAM in early Nov:

[mention=13098]snowman19[/mention]

If the MJO fails to propagate past phase 6/7 and ends up re-emerging back in the IO, which some models are showing now, then another run of strong -AAM becomes a very distinct possibility once we get into November

[MJO812]

[snowman19]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The AMO never went negative this summer. More ridiculous hype and clickbait for subscription money from those clowns. Nice New Foundland warm pool too, which is actually supportive of -NAO’s linking up with the WAR/SE ridge

@donsutherland1

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The AMO never went negative this summer. More ridiculous hype and clickbait for subscription money from those clowns. Nice New Foundland warm pool too, which is actually supportive of -NAO’s linking up with the WAR/SE ridge

@donsutherland1

Their winter forecast is similiar to others on social media in regards to this winter. Weak La Nina , alot of snow cover up north and a greater chance of a negative NAO.

 

[GaWx]

22 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Their winter forecast is similiar to others on social media in regards to this winter. Weak La Nina , alot of snow cover up north and a greater chance of a negative NAO.

 

 There have been only 6 (13%) sub -0.25 NAOs averaged over DJF since 1980 and they were all within ~2 years of a sunspot cycle minimum:

1984-5, 1986-7, 1995-6, 2009-10, 2010-1, and 2020-1.

 Being that this autumn has been in a persistent very active sunspot period after the peak only about a year ago, 2025-6 will still be during a mainly active sunspot period. As we get out to 2028-9 and going into the early 2030s, we should then be within ~2 years of the next cycle min. Therefore, based on the last 45 winters and assuming that pattern continues, ~2028-9 should be the next winter with a good shot at a sub -0.25 NAO averaged out. Hopefully like was the case in the mid-1980s and 2009-1, we’ll get two -NAO winters between 2028-9 and ~2031-2. The caveat is that this recent decades pattern of -NAOs during only weak sunspot periods has been due to randomness.

[anthonymm]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 There have been only 6 (13%) sub -0.25 NAOs averaged over DJF since 1980 and they were all within ~2 years of a sunspot cycle minimum:

1984-5, 1986-7, 1995-6, 2009-10, 2010-1, and 2020-1.

 Being that this autumn has been in a persistent very active sunspot period after the peak only about a year ago, 2025-6 will still be during a mainly active sunspot period. As we get out to 2028-9 and going into the early 2030s, we should then be within ~2 years of the next cycle min. Therefore, based on the last 45 winters and assuming that pattern continues, ~2028-9 should be the next winter with a good shot at a sub -0.25 NAO averaged out. Hopefully like was the case in the mid-1980s and 2009-1, we’ll get two -NAO winters between 2028-9 and ~2031-2

Not so fast: 

https://www.columbia.edu/~lmp/paps/chiodo%2Betal-NATUREGEO-2019.pdf?utm_source

[GaWx]

9 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Not so fast: 

https://www.columbia.edu/~lmp/paps/chiodo%2Betal-NATUREGEO-2019.pdf?utm_source

Hey Anthony,

 I had just added this at the end right before you posted:

The caveat is that this recent decades pattern of -NAOs during only weak sunspot periods has been due to randomness.

 I’m only looking at the period since 1980, when -NAO winters started becoming rare. There have only been 6 (13%) of them with a -NAO. All were within 2 years of a sunspot minimum with sunspots averaging <35 during DJF. I can’t prove it hasn’t been coincidental though. That’s why I said,

 Therefore, based on the last 45 winters and assuming that pattern continues, ~2028-9 should be the next winter with a good shot at a sub -0.25 NAO averaged out.

[40/70 Benchmark]

50 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 There have been only 6 (13%) sub -0.25 NAOs averaged over DJF since 1980 and they were all within ~2 years of a sunspot cycle minimum:

1984-5, 1986-7, 1995-6, 2009-10, 2010-1, and 2020-1.

 Being that this autumn has been in a persistent very active sunspot period after the peak only about a year ago, 2025-6 will still be during a mainly active sunspot period. As we get out to 2028-9 and going into the early 2030s, we should then be within ~2 years of the next cycle min. Therefore, based on the last 45 winters and assuming that pattern continues, ~2028-9 should be the next winter with a good shot at a sub -0.25 NAO averaged out. Hopefully like was the case in the mid-1980s and 2009-1, we’ll get two -NAO winters between 2028-9 and ~2031-2. The caveat is that this recent decades pattern of -NAOs during only weak sunspot periods has been due to randomness.

The season will average positive....that is a given, but I do think that we will see negative month.

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The AMO never went negative this summer. More ridiculous hype and clickbait for subscription money from those clowns. Nice New Foundland warm pool too, which is actually supportive of -NAO’s linking up with the WAR/SE ridge

@donsutherland1

This again reflects a big issue with social media. It’s a “Wild West” where anyone can play meteorologist, put out forecasts, and make claims about data. Verification is non-existent. Links to the data aren’t provided. Hype gains attention. Credible sources are drowned out.

[tacoman25]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The season will average positive....that is a given, but I do think that we will see negative month.

I feel like there is a bit too much focus on the NAO anyway...the EPO is a significantly larger factor for driving cold into the CONUS and generating widespread snowfall.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, tacoman25 said:

I feel like there is a bit too much focus on the NAO anyway...the EPO is a significantly larger factor for driving cold into the CONUS and generating widespread snowfall.

Agreed....I was just saying.

[jm1220]

-NAO blocking does us no good and can actually hurt if we get a steep SE ridge that links with it. That’s happened several times the last few winters. It can also keep everything suppressed to hell if we have a fast Pacific jet. 

[brooklynwx99]

10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

-NAO blocking does us no good and can actually hurt if we get a steep SE ridge that links with it. That’s happened several times the last few winters. It can also keep everything suppressed to hell if we have a fast Pacific jet. 

you seem a bit traumatized, dude. -NAO blocking has been in place for pretty much all of NYC's largest storms. to say that Greenland blocking is not beneficial is untrue