2025-2026 ENSO

[jm1220]

15 hours ago, GaWx said:

 In today’s version of JB’s “I want to keep my subscribers”, JB said this:

Southern Hemisphere Sept Cold Strat link to winter

“Here are the 4 warmest eastern winters since the start of the century:”

 He then shows a very warm map comprised of DJF anomalies for 2001-2, 2011-2, 2016-7, and 2022-3.

 Next, he says this: “Here is the Sept Stratosphere over the S pole at 10 mb”

 

“This is an amazing antilog to what the cold winters have looked like”

So, he’s trying to say that 2013-4, 2014-5, 2017-8, 2019-20, and 2024-5 are better analogs.

Although @snowman19wont like this, I’ll be fair and ask if JB may be onto something noteworthy. Putting it another way, is the Euro going to end up much too warm this DJF like it was in 2024-5 and 2020-1?

 Opinions?

 

Hilarious/sad how this time of year is when the hype/weenie winter maps etc start getting trotted out to juice up the subscribers. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the ACE could still finish near normal. But ike I said, I will gladly take a repeat of 2022-2023 with a compromise PNA between that year and last year. I feel that would be pretty good for my area.

A good, long blocking pattern in late November or December would be nice. We need the cold to be there in January and February, not May and June.

[FPizz]

11 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Hilarious/sad how this time of year is when the hype/weenie winter maps etc start getting trotted out to juice up the subscribers. 

The obsession with him in this thread is unhealthy

[GaWx]

53 minutes ago, FPizz said:

The obsession with him in this thread is unhealthy

 It’s important to call him out due to the assumed large # of subscribers to WxBell and he being one of the, if not the, most well-known internet based pro-mets since the start of the internet age. I don’t think it’s obsession and thus don’t see it being unhealthy. A large majority of posts ITT aren’t about JB.

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I already knew the answer once snowman asked about it...like I said. I wasn't really joking. Like the NAO data he posted....looked at the poster and knew it was data that supported a +NAO. I like the guy, but the fact of the matter is that you can't go wrong using that crude method of data analysis. Just look who is posting it and save yourself the time.

It's like my 5 year old daughter...she only asks questions when she eagerly anticipates the answer.  (After hearing how good of a girl she was all day)..."daddy, am I going to get ice cream because I was a good girl"? =Hmmm...MJO looks to enter the MC phases at a pretty low amplitude..."Chris, how does your MJO indicator look so far"?

Isn’t the point of this board to discuss all different ideas? If it’s that much of an issue, just say the word and I won’t post on here anymore

[FPizz]

28 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 It’s important to call him out due to the assumed large # of subscribers to WxBell and he being one of the, if not the, most well-known internet based pro-mets since the start of the internet age. I don’t think it’s obsession and thus don’t see it being unhealthy. A large majority of posts ITT aren’t about JB.

His posts on X get around 5 likes and most of the time zero replies.  To me that says he is irrelevant to most people.  If we go back 15 years+, yeah, he was a big deal, but in 2025, I don't think most care anymore.  Every poster in this thread knows he is a weenie and irrelevant.  There are tons of other X and social media weather posters that get tons of likes and replies, that are imo just as bad as JB.  To bring him all the time up seems strange to me I guess over the people that actually get reactions and 100x the views he gets. Maybe it is out age bracket or old thinking that thinks people still care about him.  Anyone under 40 probably has no clue who he is.   

[bluewave]

19 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Isn’t the point of this board to discuss all different ideas? If it’s that much of an issue, just say the word and I won’t post on here anymore

Exactly. The great thing about this forum is that everyone can come on and discuss their ideas. I enjoy reading your posts and wouldn’t want you to stop posting. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Isn’t the point of this board to discuss all different ideas? If it’s that much of an issue, just say the word and I won’t post on here anymore

I like the insight you bring...all I'm saying is that you only seem to present the same ideas. It's not just you, either. I have tried to improve on that by thinking about alternative outcomes and data that supports it. I was just teasing you, but its not an issue that is relegated to you at all.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Exactly. The great thing about this forum is that everyone can come on and discuss their ideas. I enjoy reading your posts and wouldn’t want you to stop posting. 

Yes, all I was saying is that they are always the same ideas....which is why I know what the data presented will reveal by seeing who is presenting it. There are plenty of people on the other end of the spectrum (cold, snow) and they also take shit.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Maybe Chris is right and I will never see more than 65" in a season again...I understand why he thinks that way...I'm just not convinced yet, but it's far from a non-zero threat.

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe Chris is right and I will never see more than 65" in a season again...I understand why he thinks that way...I'm just not convinced yet, but it's far from a non-zero threat.

I never said that. I know that you are probably in a rush. But just go back and look at my posts made yesterday.

[bluewave]

23 hours ago, bluewave said:

I would agree with you that we need time to see what the exact ceiling is in this much warmer climate absent an historic volcanic cooling event.

My guess that I have stated is that the ceiling for NYC Central Park station is under 50”.

The ceiling at Boston is probably lower than what occurred in 14-15, 95-96, and 14-15 in the 96” to 110” range.

But I believe the Boston ceiling is higher than the last 7 years. So I wouldn’t be surprised if Boston beat their snowiest season out of the last 7 when they had 54.0” in 21-22. 
 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I never said that. I know that you are probably in a rush. But just go back and look at my posts made yesterday. 

Okay, 75-80" maybe.

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Okay, 75-80" maybe.

I left a pretty generous possible ceiling in the 55” to 85” range going forward for Boston. For NYC Central Park I a going for a ceiling under 50”.

So even if we don’t see a repeat of the 1993 to 2015 era, there could still be good snowfall outcomes to be had from time to time at some point in the future.

Plus the areas to the NW of the DC to Boston I-95 corridor have a higher ceiling than the NYC and Boston proper areas since they are colder and at higher elevations.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I left a pretty generous possible ceiling in the 55” to 85” range going forward for Boston. For NYC Central Park I a going for a ceiling under 50”. So even if we don’t see a repeat of the 1993 to 2015 era, there could still be good snowfall outcomes to be had from time to time as some point in the future. Plus the areas to the NW of the DC to Boston I-95 corridor have a higher ceiling than the NYC and Boston proper areas since they are colder and at higher elevations.

55-85" ceiling in Boston is about 75-105" where I am. That's not unreasonable considering I have only had above 105" 3 times in recorded history, anyway.

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

55-85" ceiling in Boston is about 75-105" where I am. That's not unreasonable considering I have only had above 105" 3 times in recorded history, anyway.

I am not sure if we will be able to forecast a season like that in advance though. It could just pop up after all the seasonal forecasts have been issued during the fall. Sometimes all it takes is one event finding the BM track and a few follow up storms behind it.

But I don’t know when we could see another at least 1 month excursion like January 2022 with the brief return of the BM tracks. If we had a few more weeks of that pattern maybe Boston could have done 60-70”. Hard to say for sure. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I am not sure if we will be able to forecast a season like that in advance though. It could just pop up after all the seasonal forecasts have been issued during the fall. Sometimes all it takes is one event finding the BM track and a few follow up storms behind it.

But I don’t know when we could see another at least 1 month excursion like January 2022 with the brief return of the BM tracks. If we had a few more weeks of that pattern maybe Boston could have done 60-70”. Hard to say for sure. 

I think that has always been the case...unless it's really glaring, like 2009....although in my infancy of seasonal forecasting back in 2014, I did correctly call for a huge SNE winter....I just had it more due to the NAO rather than the +TNH on juice that ended up delivering. I actually ended up being a bit too reserved with snowfall totals, after being openly mocked in early to mid January when it looked dire.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think that has always been the case...unless it's really glaring, like 2009....although in my infancy of seasonal forecasting back in 2014, I did correctly call for a huge SNE winter....I just had it more due to the NAO rather than the +TNH on juice that ended up delivering. I actually ended up being a bit too reserved with snowfall totals, after being openly mocked in early to mid January when it looked dire.

I don’t understand why anyone will come on these forums and openly mock anyone for having the courage to post long range ideas like we do here. While we may disagree from time to time, I have respect for anyone willing to make the effort of presenting their ideas. 

Another issue is that these temperature jumps have been occurring more frequently. So we had a longer period from 1993 to 2015 when we had similar background conditions  responsible for the record seasonal snows. The more recent jump from 2015-2016 only lasted until 2024-2025 when another steep background temperature rise occurred.

So it’s uncertain how much longer until we get at this new baseline before we see another big rise again. Not even sure if when I give a ceiling like 55” to 85” at Boston that this period will last long enough for something in the 70” to 85” to be even possible. Since the shorter number of years at each regime level may not allow enough time for the full temperature range to occur. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

44 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I don’t understand why anyone will come on these forums and openly mock anyone for having the courage to post long range ideas like we do here. While we may disagree from time to time, I have respect for anyone willing to make the effort of presenting their ideas. 

Another issue is that these temperature jumps have been occurring more frequently. So we had a longer period from 1993 to 2015 when we had similar background conditions  responsible for the record seasonal snows. The more recent jump from 2015-2016 only lasted until 2024-2025 when another steep background temperature rise occurred.

So it’s uncertain how much longer until we get at this new baseline before we see another big rise again. Not even sure if when I give a ceiling like 55” to 85” at Boston that this period will last long enough for something in the 70” to 85” to be even possible. Since the shorter number of years at each regime level may not allow enough time for the full temperature range to occur. 

 

Whenever I see a you offer a glimmer of hope, it still always manages to end on a note that leaves me wanting to slit my wrists as I bleed out into the warm pool.

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Whenever I see a you offer a glimmer of hope, it still always manages to end on a note that leaves me wanting to slit my wrists as I slowly bleed out into the warm pool.

That’s definitely not my intention. It’s just that this new and larger temperature jump in 2023-2024 is so new.

We know that in the 8 year period 2015-2016 to 2022-2023 with the higher baseline temperature the ceiling at Boston was 59.9” and NYC maxed out at 40.9”.

So we are all probably just taking educated guesses at to what the new ceiling at these even warmer levels will be. All we know for sure is that the most recent 7 year running average along the I-95 corridor is the lowest on record for the combined station average. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s definitely not my intention. It’s just that this new and larger temperature jump in 2023-2024 is so new.

We know that in the 8 year period 2015-2016 to 2022-2023 with the higher baseline temperature the ceiling at Boston was 59.9” and NYC maxed out at 40.9”.

So we are all probably just taking educated guesses at to what the new ceiling at these even warmer levels will be. All we know for sure is that the most recent 7 year running average along the I-95 corridor is the lowest on record for the combined station average. 

Well, it's pretty much noise IMBY...the period from the 1985-1986 through the 1991-1992 seasons averaged 43.3" of snowfall for my area....2018-2019 through 2024-2025 has averaged 41.75". I mean, if that is the impact of CC on snowfall, I can deal. I would prefer the more feast or famine element and won't jump a ledge over 1.5". Less cold and dry, which is the worst IMHO.

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, it's pretty much noise IMBY...the period from the 1985-1986 through the 1991-1992 seasons averaged 43.3" of snowfall for my area....2018-2019 through 2024-2025 has averaged 41.75". I mean, if that is the impact of CC of snow snowfall, I can deal. I would prefer the more feast or famine element and won't jump a ledge over 1.5". Less cold and dry, which is the worst IMHO.

Just goes to show what a little elevation and distance west of the I-95 corridor can do. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

While I snuck in a good season or two in the earlier stretch, this latter stretch has just been consistently subpar and has avoided reall cellar seasons. The stretch from the 80s into the 90s actually had greater variance in that there were a couple of better seasons, but also a few lower than anything I have seen since 2011-2012.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Just goes to show what a little elevation and distance west of the I-95 corridor can do. 

latitude

[PhiEaglesfan712]

50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s definitely not my intention. It’s just that this new and larger temperature jump in 2023-2024 is so new.

It's too early to tell if 2023-24 produced this 'new and larger temperature jump'. After all, the first year following the strong el nino (2024-25) produced the coldest winter in most of the East since 2014-15 (before the 2015-16 super el nino).

And who knows, 2023-24 might be the precursor to another strong el nino (in 2026-27 or 2027-28), like 1982-83 was to 1986-88. (I'd argue the 1986-88 event caused the first warming because we still got below zero temps in PHL between the 1982-83 and 1986-88 el ninos, namely in 1983-84 and 1984-85... After the 1986-88 el nino, below zero temps in PHL were almost a thing of the past.)