2025-2026 ENSO

[snowman19]

I made this graph last year, it's a smoothed out AMO index since it went positive in 1995. It appears that we still seem to be in a rising phase, over the long term. 

Also, the NAO has been very positive May-Aug, just like last year. Such +NAO in the warm season has a -0.3 SSTA correlation in the south-central Atlantic. A lot of the cool water this year is because of such a strong +NAO... It's been positive 8 of the last 9 months. If the NAO had been negative 8/9 months, you'd be seeing some very warm SSTAs in the Tropical Atlantic, and probably more activity this hurricane season. 

And on the PAC side, this -PDO cycle has been much stronger than the last one (1940’s-1970’s). I’ve seen a few articles blaming the record low arctic sea ice on this -PDO cycle

[snowman19]

The unusual westward MJO propagation continues

[GaWx]

 The unusual clockwise dominated MJO rotation that started Sept 1st is continuing and progged to keep going through at least Oct 6th per the images below. So, it went from phase 5 (inside) on 8/31 back to ph 2 9/2-8. It temporarily went forward to ph 3 for 3 days but then backtracked across 2 then 1 and then 8. It’s forecasted to continue backtracking through 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, and 8.

 I just looked at MJO diagrams for the 2nd half of each year back to 1975 and couldn’t find anything comparable:

[snowman19]

20 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The unusual clockwise dominated MJO rotation that started Sept 1st is continuing and progged to keep going through at least Oct 6th per the images below. So, it went from phase 5 (inside) on 8/31 back to ph 2 9/2-8. It temporarily went forward to ph 3 for 3 days but then backtracked across 2 then 1 and then 8. It’s forecasted to continue backtracking through 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, and 8.

 I just looked at MJO diagrams for the 2nd half of each year back to 1975 and couldn’t find anything comparable:

The MJO waves have also been low amplitude unlike last year at this time when we were seeing strong waves and are projected to stay that way

[snowman19]

[BlizzardWx]

8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The MJO waves have also been low amplitude unlike last year at this time when we were seeing strong waves and are projected to stay that way

I wonder if this will continue into winter. Any thoughts? I know a lot of our troubles the last ten years have been from too much MJO 4-6. So maybe no real MJO signal would be a plus? 

[snowman19]

9 hours ago, BlizzardWx said:

I wonder if this will continue into winter. Any thoughts? I know a lot of our troubles the last ten years have been from too much MJO 4-6. So maybe no real MJO signal would be a plus? 

In theory, a -QBO should destabilize the tropical tropopause and cause a stronger, more robust MJO and on equator forcing/convection. Maybe this erratic behavior with the westward propagations and weak, low amplitude MJO waves is only temporary and will change as we go deeper into fall? Strong -IOD/La Niña playing a role? I’m honestly not sure besides saying to take a wait and see approach 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

18 hours ago, snowman19 said:

And on the PAC side, this -PDO cycle has been much stronger than the last one (1940’s-1970’s). I’ve seen a few articles blaming the record low arctic sea ice on this -PDO cycle

I would think warmer water in the Gulf of Alaska and Bering Strait would be a cause of more arctic ice melt, which is more +PDO... but the arctic ice melt has completely gone bare on the Pacific side of the Arctic circle, and the PDO has gone to new record low levels during and after that time, so something may be connecting them.. although maybe not directly

[Daniel Boone]

13 hours ago, snowman19 said:

In theory, a -QBO should destabilize the tropical tropopause and cause a stronger, more robust MJO and on equator forcing/convection. Maybe this erratic behavior with the westward propagations and weak, low amplitude MJO waves is only temporary and will change as we go deeper into fall? Strong -IOD/La Niña playing a role? I’m honestly not sure besides saying to take a wait and see approach 

Yeah. As it stands now, the influence of the QBO on this Winter is a Mystery with the other Factors you mentioned and Other's in play.

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah. As it stands now, the influence of the QBO on this Winter is a Mystery with the other Factors you mentioned and Other's in play.

I'll be pretty suprised if we don't see at least one round of significant blocking.