snowman19 Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago I made this graph last year, it's a smoothed out AMO index since it went positive in 1995. It appears that we still seem to be in a rising phase, over the long term. Also, the NAO has been very positive May-Aug, just like last year. Such +NAO in the warm season has a -0.3 SSTA correlation in the south-central Atlantic. A lot of the cool water this year is because of such a strong +NAO... It's been positive 8 of the last 9 months. If the NAO had been negative 8/9 months, you'd be seeing some very warm SSTAs in the Tropical Atlantic, and probably more activity this hurricane season. And on the PAC side, this -PDO cycle has been much stronger than the last one (1940’s-1970’s). I’ve seen a few articles blaming the record low arctic sea ice on this -PDO cycle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago The unusual westward MJO propagation continues 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago The unusual clockwise dominated MJO rotation that started Sept 1st is continuing and progged to keep going through at least Oct 6th per the images below. So, it went from phase 5 (inside) on 8/31 back to ph 2 9/2-8. It temporarily went forward to ph 3 for 3 days but then backtracked across 2 then 1 and then 8. It’s forecasted to continue backtracking through 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, and 8. I just looked at MJO diagrams for the 2nd half of each year back to 1975 and couldn’t find anything comparable: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 20 minutes ago, GaWx said: The unusual clockwise dominated MJO rotation that started Sept 1st is continuing and progged to keep going through at least Oct 6th per the images below. So, it went from phase 5 (inside) on 8/31 back to ph 2 9/2-8. It temporarily went forward to ph 3 for 3 days but then backtracked across 2 then 1 and then 8. It’s forecasted to continue backtracking through 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, and 8. I just looked at MJO diagrams for the 2nd half of each year back to 1975 and couldn’t find anything comparable: The MJO waves have also been low amplitude unlike last year at this time when we were seeing strong waves and are projected to stay that way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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