2025-2026 ENSO

[snowman19]

I made this graph last year, it's a smoothed out AMO index since it went positive in 1995. It appears that we still seem to be in a rising phase, over the long term. 

Also, the NAO has been very positive May-Aug, just like last year. Such +NAO in the warm season has a -0.3 SSTA correlation in the south-central Atlantic. A lot of the cool water this year is because of such a strong +NAO... It's been positive 8 of the last 9 months. If the NAO had been negative 8/9 months, you'd be seeing some very warm SSTAs in the Tropical Atlantic, and probably more activity this hurricane season. 

And on the PAC side, this -PDO cycle has been much stronger than the last one (1940’s-1970’s). I’ve seen a few articles blaming the record low arctic sea ice on this -PDO cycle