2025-2026 ENSO

[snowman19]

43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The real heart to the drought is over northern New England....couple that with a modest +NAO and maybe it’s finally my turn.

You are right about the smax. High sunspots and especially high geomag argue for +NAO as does the cold North Atlantic 

[brooklynwx99]

I can assure you, when we do get a good winter from NYC south, I doubt anyone will have actually forecasted it beforehand. including myself

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

You are right about the smax. High sunspots and especially high geomag argue for +NAO as does the cold North Atlantic 

Yea, well don't forget the E QBO. This shouldn't be a super nova +NAO that is devoid of blocking.

[40/70 Benchmark]

IRI plume def. more aggressive with La Nina. I think they have finally caught onto to an event that will will fall just shy of official designation. I called -0.5 to -0.7 ONI peak back in July and it looks like dynamical guidance now peaks at -0.71, statistical -0.53 and mean of all guidance -0.61.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/07/la-neutral-enso-conditions-will.html

Will probably go onto to overcorrect a bit next month, too before tickling back later in the fall. Subsurface is quite stout, but I don't think we will have the trade clout to surface as much of that in region 3.4 as we did in 3 and 1.2.

[snowman19]

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

We need the trades colocated with the subsurface cold pool...we had that big time througout much of August, when we had the burst of intensification of La Nina due to the upwelling of the cold pool over the eastern half of ENSO. However, trades died down and shifted west in Septmeber. They look to pick up out east again next week and into October, but not as strongly as August. SOI has also been inching upwards. I think at the end of the day, the pedestrian coupling of the trades with the cold pool, owed at least in part to the diffuse PAC pressure dipole (Low west/high east) is what will have this La Nina struggling to be acknowledged by CPC in the record books. Will be very close.

The subsurface says game on...but the hemisphere isn't totally on board.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Maybe a hair stronger than last year-

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Honestly, the most concerning thing, at least as far as snowfall is the drought. These typically aren’t easy to break, especially when in place for several months. They form a feedback cycle. And parts of the northeast are historically dry

 

 

 

As far as the SE ridge, I think we do see much more SE ridging this time around due to the state of the Atlantic. BAMWX actually touched on this yesterday

 

 

 

 

 

 

I imagine color is ramping up bigtime in NNE with the drought.

Our average peak in SE MI is mid-late October, but color began in late August as the cool nights arrived and even with the pattern shift to warmer, color continues to expand. The air smells like fall with all the drying leaves, even in the warm sun, and I suspect the dry conditions have to be playing a part. 

Kind of hard to tell in this picture from earlier, but the gold of the grass is only a few shades lighter than the gold on the trees.

 

[snowman19]

I imagine color is ramping up bigtime in NNE with the drought.
Our average peak in SE MI is mid-late October, but color began in late August as the cool nights arrived and even with the pattern shift to warmer, color continues to expand. The air smells like fall with all the drying leaves, even in the warm sun, and I suspect the dry conditions have to be playing a part. 
Kind of hard to tell in this picture from earlier, but the gold of the grass is only a few shades lighter than the gold on the trees.
 

It’s been insanely dry since the end of July

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The newly released CPC Winter outlook is colder than 90-95% of what they've put out in the long range for the last 10 years, for the CONUS. 

The NW, US is an interesting forecast, because the Euro, CANSIPs, and other seasonal models are above average there. 

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The newly released CPC Winter outlook is colder than 90-95% of what they've put out in the long range for the last 10 years, for the CONUS. 

The NW, US is an interesting forecast, because the Euro, CANSIPs, and other seasonal models are above average there. 

They are forecasting A LOT of drought though:

[PhiEaglesfan712]

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

 Although the chances are now pretty low, we still don’t know for sure that ACE won’t get to near the 30 yr 122 avg especially based on 2024, 2020, 2016, and 2005, but also on 1894, 1893, and 1878. However, all of these very active Oct+ years were more active through Sept though 2016 and 1894 not by that much.

[anthonymm]

19 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The newly released CPC Winter outlook is colder than 90-95% of what they've put out in the long range for the last 10 years, for the CONUS. 

The NW, US is an interesting forecast, because the Euro, CANSIPs, and other seasonal models are above average there. 

they always predict a very cold PNW if it's a nina. Also it is impressive how little orange they used!

[snowman19]

[Daniel Boone]

20 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The newly released CPC Winter outlook is colder than 90-95% of what they've put out in the long range for the last 10 years, for the CONUS. 

The NW, US is an interesting forecast, because the Euro, CANSIPs, and other seasonal models are above average there. 

Enso is always their main source for their Seasonals, as we all know. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Although the chances are now pretty low, we still don’t know for sure that ACE won’t get to near the 30 yr 122 avg especially based on 2024, 2020, 2016, and 2005, but also on 1894, 1893, and 1878. However, all of these very active Oct+ years were more active through Sept though 2016 and 1894 not by that much.

Three of those years rank among the 11 hyperactive (180+ ACE) seasons, with 2 of the Top 3 overall:

1            2005      247.65

3            1893      231.0738

11          2020      180.3725

[raindancewx]

Here is how the global blend I mentioned a while ago looks for September - 2013, 2018, 2022, 2024 minus 2007. Not half bad. 

Given that ACE is heavily favored to finish under 100 now, I'd go colder than the blend with -2007, especially Plains/Southwest.