2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah things aren't always what they seem.

ENSO subsurface is cooling again with -4c in the central-region

I found this correlates with the N. Pacific pattern most of all ENSO variables. The PNA correlation gets going in November, and has highest correlation in Jan-Feb.. if the cold water in the subsurface continues until then. Subsurface fluxes more than the surface. But we really haven't seen that much Aleutian ridging this year. With all the cold H5 near the Pole lately, a cold season +PNA is actually slightly favored just per the Summer Polar pattern. Will be interesting to see which of those two wins out this Winter. 

I think the PNA will be volatile and average near neutral...we should be a big +month in January that will coincide with +NAO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

It didn’t work out this past winter and we saw one of the strongest +PNA patterns from December into January since 1948.

But you are correct that prior to this winter it was a good indicator. Even though the CPC registered ad a +PNA in February, the 500mb PNA had a more negative look.

In any event, the winter PNA has been trending more positive since 1948.

It didn't work out because the PNA ridges consistently positioned off of the west coast. Put it over the chinmey of Idaho and it will work.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This was mentioned extensively last fall….the research showing that +QBO/-ENSO causes a more poleward Aleutian High, while -QBO/-ENSO causes a more flattened, equatorial Aleutian Ridge. HM had a blog on this many years ago, which unfortunately I can’t find the link to anymore. IF this research is correct, then we will see it come “cold season” (Nov-Mar).
 

Mentioned before, I am confident this will be BS this season. Will revisit next spring.

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It didn't work out because the PNA ridges consistently posituioned off of the west coast. Put it over the chinmey of Idaho and it will work.

It was mostly that the +PNA was getting undercut by the very fast Pacific Jet. The composite below is for the heaviest precipitation days last winter from Philly to Boston. The energy diving into the trough to our west during the storms pumped the Southeast ridge allowing the wettest storms to cut to our west.

 

[kazimirkai]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

It didn’t work out this past winter and we saw one of the strongest +PNA patterns from December into January since 1948.

But you are correct that prior to this winter it was a good indicator. Even though the CPC registered ad a +PNA in February, the 500mb PNA had a more negative look.

In any event, the winter PNA has been trending more positive since 1948.

How can you be sure of the reliable influence of any teleconnection these days if they can just be nullified by some unseen pattern against all prior correlations? 

[DarkSharkWX]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This was mentioned extensively last fall….the research showing that +QBO/-ENSO causes a more poleward Aleutian High, while -QBO/-ENSO causes a more flattened, equatorial Aleutian Ridge. HM had a blog on this many years ago, which unfortunately I can’t find the link to anymore. IF this research is correct, then we will see it come “cold season” (Nov-Mar).
 

+QBO causes the tropical tropopause to stabilize which makes convection focus further off the equator which shifts the pattern more poleward, -QBO would have more active MJO(in general) but more focused on the equator

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, kazimirkai said:

How can you be sure of the reliable influence of any teleconnection these days if they can just be nullified by some unseen pattern against all prior correlations? 

I have been discussing this for a while now. The rapid expansion of the mid-latitude ridging has been altering the way that the higher latitude teleconnections have been occurring relative to the past. We have also been seeing a much faster Pacific Jet with the record mid-latitude SSTs under these expanding ridges.

[DarkSharkWX]

56 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Mentioned before, I am confident this will be BS this season. Will revisit next spring.

i mean we still probably will get a good period of HL blocking w/ -EPO and +PNA its just that theres going to be more SER (especially before/after good periods) with a more developed nina since -QBO relates to more active MJO

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It was mostly that the +PNA was getting undercut by the very fast Pacific Jet. The composite below is for the heaviest precipitation days last winter from Philly to Boston. The energy diving into the trough to our west during the storms pumped the Southeast ridge allowing the wettest storms to cut to our west.

 

If you view the dailies from the dates of major storms, the PNA ridge is centred just off of the west coast. I don't care how fast the PAC jet is, that wouldn't have worked out in 1852. I do agree that PAC jet has been an issue in general, as it makes it more difficult to time the palcement of the PNA ridge correctly, and for it not to fold too quickly.

Here is a prime example from last winter of the Pacific jet undercutting a +PNA ridge and thus tilting it positively, leading to a failed phase attempt on the east coast.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

i mean we still probably will get a good period of HL blocking w/ -EPO and +PNA its just that theres going to be more SER (especially before/after good periods) with a more developed nina since -QBO relates to more active MJO

Yes.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If you view the dailies from the dates of major storms, the PNA ridge is centred just off of the west coast. I don't care how fast the PAC jet is, that wouldn't have worked out in 1852. I do agree that PAC jet has been an issue in general, as it makes it more difficult to time the palcement of the PNA ridge correctly, and for it not to fold too quickly.

Here is a prime example from last winter of the Pacific jet undercutting a +PNA ridge and thus tilting it positively, leading to a failed phase attempt on the east coast.

 

The ridge axis was centered just off the West Coast during the 13-14 winter on the wettest storm days for NYC leading to that much snowier outcome than last winter.

But the Pacific Jet was significantly weaker. So it allowed the 500mb ridge to remain in place and not get weakened and undercut by such a fast Pacific Jet.

The lack of kickers coming into the West Coast during 13-14 with the weakened Pacific Jet allowed the colder storm track just southeast of NYC with numerous BM redevelopers.

The Southeast ridge was much weaker and further east than recent years.

18 storm days for NYC DJF 13-14 with .20+ of precipitation
 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The ridge axis was centered just off the West Coast during the 13-14 winter on the wettest storm days for NYC leading to that much snowier outcome than last winter. But the Pacific Jet was significantly weaker. So it allowed the 500mb ridge to remain in place and not get weakened and undercut by such a fast Pacific Jet. The lack of kickers coming into the West Coast during 13-14 with the weakened Pacific Jet allowed the colder storm track just southeast of NYC with numerous BM redevelopers. 
 

 

That was one of the most severe -WPO seasons on record. Like I said, nothing operates in a vacuum and there are no absolutes.
Lets look at the following year....we must really want an extraordinarily +AO/NAO than.

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That was one of the most severe -WPO seasons on record. Like I said, nothing operates in a vacuum and there are no absolutes.

Much easier to get a strong -WPO with a relaxed Pacific Jet not constantly eroding the ridge.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Much easier to get a strong -WPO with a relaxed Pacific Jet not constantly eroding the ridge.

It's much easier to have east coast winter weather in general without an active PAC jet...I'm not arguing it's favorable. But it's not the only reason the east coast has been struggling. The pattern has sucked.

We did manage a -WPO in 2021-2022.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2013-2014 also didn't have any higher end KU events if I am not mistaken....perhaps I am, not sure. But I know for my area, there were no really memorable events, which are tougher to achieve without a well placed PNA ridge. It's much easier to get more moderate snowfalls, which is mostly what we saw.

Anyway, like I said...no absolutes. You don't absolutely NEED the PNA to cooperate...you can still time everything perfectly, but it's just much tougher.

[dmillz25]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2013-2014 also didn't have any higher end KU events if I am not mistaken....perhaps I am, not sure. But I know for my area, there were no really memorable events, which are tougher to achieve without a well placed PNA ridge. It's much easier to get more moderate snowfalls, which is mostly what we saw.

Anyway, like I said...no absolutes. You don't absolutely NEED the PNA to cooperate...you can still time everything perfectly, but it's just much tougher.

Highest snowfall that year for me was 14” if I remember correctly 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dmillz25 said:

Highest snowfall that year for me was 14” if I remember correctly 

I guess that is KU material for you guys, but certainly not something I would consider high-end.

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Highest snowfall that year for me was 14” if I remember correctly 

Boston and eastern MA largely missed out on that event and it turned to heavy rain for the New York City area for a time. But even with a swath of 10"-20" snows, that event wasn't a high-end KU storm. It was a Category 3 event on the NESIS scale.

[anthonymm]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I guess that is KU material for you guys, but certainly not something I would consider high-end.

Anything above 6" is KU material for central park now lmfao. Central park has not gotten a 6" event since January 2022. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, anthonymm said:

Anything above 6" is KU material for central park now lmfao. Central park has not gotten a 6" event since January 2022. 

I guess I am talking about widespread 20"+....

[anthonymm]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I guess I am talking about widespread 20"+....

Last actual KU for the mid atlantic was February 2021 then. For SNE it was Jan 2022. I doubt a KU happens next winter, or even a widespread 10" event from philly to nyc. Boston is a different climo they can get 10" storms even in bad winters.

[DarkSharkWX]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2013-2014 also didn't have any higher end KU events if I am not mistaken....perhaps I am, not sure. But I know for my area, there were no really memorable events, which are tougher to achieve without a well placed PNA ridge. It's much easier to get more moderate snowfalls, which is mostly what we saw.

Anyway, like I said...no absolutes. You don't absolutely NEED the PNA to cooperate...you can still time everything perfectly, but it's just much tougher.

for me the highest storm in 2014 was the overpreforming vday storm with ~19" here, 20-26" in the ridges north of me

[dmillz25]

3 hours ago, anthonymm said:

Anything above 6" is KU material for central park now lmfao. Central park has not gotten a 6" event since January 2022. 

Funny because only 5 miles SE of there 2 winters ago I got 6.5” of snow

[dmillz25]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I guess that is KU material for you guys, but certainly not something I would consider high-end.

Sort of, def major for sure 

[snowman19]

The last true DC-PHL-NYC-BOS corridor KU snowstorms were back in February, 2021. It shutdown at the end of that month, never to be heard from again

[MJO812]

46 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The last true DC-PHL-NYC-BOS corridor KU snowstorms were back in February, 2021. It shutdown at the end of that month, never to be heard from again

18 inches here

Snow for 3 days

[FPizz]

53 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Funny because only 5 miles SE of there 2 winters ago I got 6.5” of snow

I got 2 storms in feb 2024 with 6"+ 

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

And many on you tube and elsewhere are calling for a cold E US winter? Does that jibe with the warmest N Pacific on record?

[MJO812]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2013-2014 also didn't have any higher end KU events if I am not mistaken....perhaps I am, not sure. But I know for my area, there were no really memorable events, which are tougher to achieve without a well placed PNA ridge. It's much easier to get more moderate snowfalls, which is mostly what we saw.

Anyway, like I said...no absolutes. You don't absolutely NEED the PNA to cooperate...you can still time everything perfectly, but it's just much tougher.

That was a cold winter here in NYC with 57 inches of snow. Alot of fluffy snow events.  

One morning it went down to 1 degrees here.