2025-2026 ENSO

[anthonymm]

16 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i would say that considering that -EPO and some +PNA is favored. definitely doesn't look like a disaster

+PNA seems to be the most important pattern for big snow in the tristate at least. -EPO got us effing nothing last winter. Also need the subtropical jet to not be suppressed to oblivion 

[snowman19]

42 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

+PNA seems to be the most important pattern for big snow in the tristate at least. -EPO got us effing nothing last winter. Also need the subtropical jet to not be suppressed to oblivion 

The STJ is very likely to be muted this coming winter. -PMM/-ENSO weakens the STJ

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i would say that considering that -EPO and some +PNA is favored. definitely doesn't look like a disaster

I can see the -EPO, the +PNA not so much, especially since it’s a 2nd year -ENSO/-PDO. Not saying no +PNA but IMO it will be limited 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, anthonymm said:

+PNA seems to be the most important pattern for big snow in the tristate at least. -EPO got us effing nothing last winter. Also need the subtropical jet to not be suppressed to oblivion 

A combination of both is ideal.

[anthonymm]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The STJ is very likely to be muted this coming winter. -PMM/-ENSO weakens the STJ

Lol yeah so more coating to 3 inch events like last year, except even less likely since there's no way its gonna be as cold as last winter.

[csnavywx]

4 hours ago, FPizz said:

Extent looks a little different, pretty much running the 2010s and 2020s average.

Yep. Pretty unremarkable melt season weather-wise. Area and volume significantly lower, but not exceptional or anything. Beaufort took quite a long time to melt out this year, closer to 2013's melt season, and there's still an intact arm into the ESS -- whereas the CAB itself is actually record low on area. The easy to melt stuff is long gone and a transition towards Atlantic-side dominance may yet take some more time.

[csnavywx]

 

The Southwest Monsoon has been on fire this year with stronger than usual upwelling in the Arabian Sea. Combined with recent trades, we actually have a nice incipient -IOD pattern setting up, which should help boost our Nina into the winter months.

This winter looking interesting from the standpoint of the Pacific pattern on the seasonals:

 

Looks encouraging for increased cross-polar flow, PV favoring our hemisphere and a typical Nina gradient-pattern.

 

This MSLP pattern is also pretty favorable for a follow-on reduction of the trades, which may line up nicely when the developing -IOD terminates:

 

 

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/16/16/1520-0442_2003_016_2668_tsfmit_2.0.co_2.xml

 

 

[MJO812]

28 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Lol yeah so more coating to 3 inch events like last year, except even less likely since there's no way its gonna be as cold as last winter.

No one knows what this winter will be in August. Long range forecasts are crapshoots and have been wrong in the past several years.

Just like every winter forecast i have seen so far is very cold and snowy for the east with the weak la Nina. All nonsense this far out.

It takes skill but grain of salt

[snowman19]

Lol yeah so more coating to 3 inch events like last year, except even less likely since there's no way its gonna be as cold as last winter.

You can’t be that specific on snowfall this far out….or even close in lol There are a few things that look like good bets going into winter. @Bluewave usually uses MJO wave intensity come October, which I think seems to be a rather decent indicator. So far, the MJO has been following the tendency of the last several years of favoring phases 5-6-7

[so_whats_happening]

2 hours ago, csnavywx said:

Yep. Pretty unremarkable melt season weather-wise. Area and volume significantly lower, but not exceptional or anything. Beaufort took quite a long time to melt out this year, closer to 2013's melt season, and there's still an intact arm into the ESS -- whereas the CAB itself is actually record low on area. The easy to melt stuff is long gone and a transition towards Atlantic-side dominance may yet take some more time.

Yea it was interesting to watch the Beaufort region this year not many years have remained intact in this region. If we did not have such an abysmal growth season we could have managed a rare positive uptick within the downtrend. Will be interesting to see when we officially hit the floor and just how the beginning of the season sets up.

We did just get a massive warm region showing up over the last couple months in the Atlantic near northern Europe that im sure will play a role in how this year goes for growth.

[snowman19]

14 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Yea it was interesting to watch the Beaufort region this year not many years have remained intact in this region. If we did not have such an abysmal growth season we could have managed a rare positive uptick within the downtrend. Will be interesting to see when we officially hit the floor and just how the beginning of the season sets up.

We did just get a massive warm region showing up over the last couple months in the Atlantic near northern Europe that im sure will play a role in how this year goes for growth.

That’s exactly the problem….our starting point at the very beginning of this arctic sea ice melt season was record low so we ended up with yet another record low year for 2025

[snowman19]

The amount of flat out false info circulating around wxtwitter is simply amazing. Just read a tweet claiming that we are at “solar minimum” which isn’t even close to being true. You really have to be careful who you follow on there

[bluewave]

17 hours ago, MJO812 said:

No one knows what this winter will be in August. Long range forecasts are crapshoots and have been wrong in the past several years.

Just like every winter forecast i have seen so far is very cold and snowy for the east with the weak la Nina. All nonsense this far out.

It takes skill but grain of salt

The most important factor for our area is how strong the Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet has been since 2018-2019. So this has found ways to overpower what has been favorable teleconnection patterns in the past. This is why we have experienced the lowest 7 year winter snowfall average on record for many spots from Philly to Boston. 

Last winter featured what would have been considered favorable teleconnections in the past for snow. Just looking at the seasonal 500mb map, you could make the assumption that it could have been a snowy winter from the means. But on the 11 days NYC had their heaviest precipitation of .25 or more the average temperature was 41° degrees and a strong Southeast Ridge. So the storm track was too warm even if the background temperature of 34.8° was much colder.

So the only metric I am interested in at this point for next winter is where the storm track sets up. If it continues the Great Lakes cutter, I-78 to I-84 hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks, then it won’t matter what kind of poleward extension we get with the ridge near Alaska. This has been the dominant storm track with the record Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet.

If we get to December and the storm track is still unfavorable, then we’ll know that it will be another well below average winter for snowfall. Hoping to see some improvement in this department. We will know soon enough by December when we get the early La Niña snowfall indicator which has worked nearly all of the time since the 1990s like it did last winter. Last December was below 4” and the rest of the winter finished well below average again.

But with the record mid-latitude warmth we are currently experiencing, it would tend to support the Southeast Ridge and strong PacificJet being a factor again. Don’t mind warm winters as long as the storm tracks that are cold like we got in 15-16, 16-17, and 17-18. But there is very little we can do with a warm storm track.

 

 

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The most important factor for our area is how strong the Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet has been since 2018-2019. So this has found ways to overpower what has been favorable teleconnection patterns in the past. This is why we have experienced the lowest 7 year winter snowfall average on record for many spots from Philly to Boston. 

Last winter featured what would have been considered favorable teleconnections in the past for snow. Just looking at the seasonal 500mb map, you could make the assumption that it could have been a snowy winter from the means. But on the 11 days NYC had their heaviest precipitation of .25 or more the average temperature was 41° degrees and a strong Southeast Ridge. So the storm track was too warm even if the background temperature of 34.8° was much colder.

So the only metric I am interested in at this point for next winter is where the storm track sets up. If it continues the Great Lakes cutter, I-78 to I-84 hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks, then it won’t matter what kind of poleward extension we get with the ridge near Alaska. This has been the dominant storm track with the record Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet.

If we get to December and the storm track is still unfavorable, then we’ll know that it will be another well below average winter for snowfall. Hoping to see some improvement in this department. We will know soon enough by December when we get the early La Niña snowfall indicator which has worked nearly all of the time since the 1990s like it did last winter. Last December was below 4” and the rest of the winter finished well below average again.

But with the record mid-latitude warmth we are currently experiencing, it would tend to support the Southeast Ridge and strong PacificJet being a factor again. Don’t mind warm winters as long as the storm tracks that are cold like we got in 15-16, 16-17, and 17-18. But there is very little we can do with a warm storm track.

 

 

The North Atlantic is night and day this year compared to 2023. That big cold pool south of Greenland and up Davis Straight has been incredibly persistent since spring. Basically the opposite of the heatwave off of Japan in the Northwest PAC

[bluewave]

44 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The North Atlantic is night and day this year compared to 2023. That big cold pool south of Greenland and up Davis Straight has been incredibly persistent since spring. Basically the opposite of the heatwave off of Japan in the Northwest PAC

We had a record Southeast Ridge in July. So record Atlantic warm pool is in the mid-latitude band off the East Coast The record ridge back in the summer of 2023 was east of Canada leading to the record SSTs at higher latitudes. 
 

[anthonymm]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

The most important factor for our area is how strong the Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet has been since 2018-2019. So this has found ways to overpower what has been favorable teleconnection patterns in the past. This is why we have experienced the lowest 7 year winter snowfall average on record for many spots from Philly to Boston. 

Last winter featured what would have been considered favorable teleconnections in the past for snow. Just looking at the seasonal 500mb map, you could make the assumption that it could have been a snowy winter from the means. But on the 11 days NYC had their heaviest precipitation of .25 or more the average temperature was 41° degrees and a strong Southeast Ridge. So the storm track was too warm even if the background temperature of 34.8° was much colder.

So the only metric I am interested in at this point for next winter is where the storm track sets up. If it continues the Great Lakes cutter, I-78 to I-84 hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks, then it won’t matter what kind of poleward extension we get with the ridge near Alaska. This has been the dominant storm track with the record Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet.

If we get to December and the storm track is still unfavorable, then we’ll know that it will be another well below average winter for snowfall. Hoping to see some improvement in this department. We will know soon enough by December when we get the early La Niña snowfall indicator which has worked nearly all of the time since the 1990s like it did last winter. Last December was below 4” and the rest of the winter finished well below average again.

But with the record mid-latitude warmth we are currently experiencing, it would tend to support the Southeast Ridge and strong PacificJet being a factor again. Don’t mind warm winters as long as the storm tracks that are cold like we got in 15-16, 16-17, and 17-18. But there is very little we can do with a warm storm track.

 

 

Any reasons you think the pattern has turned to levels of garbage for snowfall literally never seen before? After 2018-2019 it seems like something changed abruptly. Since then the only good winter month snow-wise for nyc was february 2021.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

But with the record mid-latitude warmth we are currently experiencing, it would tend to support the Southeast Ridge and strong PacificJet being a factor again. Don’t mind warm winters as long as the storm tracks that are cold like we got in 15-16, 16-17, and 17-18. But there is very little we can do with a warm storm track.

The only one I'd really take is 17-18. That's probably the closest thing to a great winter all-around since 13-14 and 14-15. I know we had the record warm February, but that was an outlier compared to the other months (December, January, March, and April), which were all below average.

15-16 and 16-17 were high variance winters, especially 15-16, which was dependent on one storm that skewed the entire season. Areas that missed the storm had record low snow totals.

Just now, anthonymm said:

Any reasons you think the pattern has turned to levels of garbage for snowfall literally never seen before? After 2018-2019 it seems like something changed abruptly. Since then the only good winter month snow-wise for nyc was february 2021.

The greater frequency of warmer winters. You could start to see it as early as 2011-12. The great seasons of 2013-14 and 2014-15 interrupted the pattern. But after the mid-2010s el nino ended, you can definitely start to see a pattern change.

[anthonymm]

12 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The only one I'd really take is 17-18. That's probably the closest thing to a great winter all-around since 13-14 and 14-15. I know we had the record warm February, but that was an outlier compared to the other months (December, January, March, and April), which were all below average.

15-16 and 16-17 were high variance winters, especially 15-16, which was dependent on one storm that skewed the entire season. Areas that missed the storm had record low snow totals.

The greater frequency of warmer winters. You could start to see it as early as 2011-12. The great seasons of 2013-14 and 2014-15 interrupted the pattern. But after the mid-2010s el nino ended, you can definitely start to see a pattern change.

I take it ultra warm winters like 11-12, 15-16, 19-20, 22-23, 23-24 were more or less unprecedented before this era no? It's not just that though. 21-22 and 24-25 were decently cold/seasonable, we just can't buy a big storm or frequent moderate storms anymore :/. Sucks and makes me want to move up north to VT or something.

[GaWx]

 We’re apparently about to have TS Fernand a few hundred miles SSE of Bermuda. Also, Invest 99L is significantly more active on the 12Z Euro ens as it gets to the W Caribbean in ~a week. If it actually does develop there, watch out!

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 hours ago, anthonymm said:

I take it ultra warm winters like 11-12, 15-16, 19-20, 22-23, 23-24 were more or less unprecedented before this era no? It's not just that though. 21-22 and 24-25 were decently cold/seasonable, we just can't buy a big storm or frequent moderate storms anymore :/. Sucks and makes me want to move up north to VT or something.

There were warm winters before 2011-12, but they were fewer and further between. Like if one happened, the pendulum would have almost certainly swung the other way the following year. But after 11-12, it's been warm winter after warm winter after warm winter (with the obvious exceptions of 13-14 and 14-15).

I wouldn't say 21-22 was decently cold/seasonable. Only one month was (January), but the rest of that winter was well above average temperature. 24-25 was for the first time since at least 17-18 (and you could argue 14-15) colder than average more often than not.

[anthonymm]

3 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

There were warm winters before 2011-12, but they were fewer and further between. Like if one happened, the pendulum would have almost certainly swung the other way the following year. But after 11-12, it's been warm winter after warm winter after warm winter (with the obvious exceptions of 13-14 and 14-15).

I wouldn't say 21-22 was decently cold/seasonable. Only one month was (January), but the rest of that winter was well above average temperature. 24-25 was for the first time since at least 17-18 (and you could argue 14-15) colder than average more often than not.

And yet we still couldn't make it happen. The odds are so stacked against snow now it's kinda insane.