2025-2026 ENSO

[KakashiHatake2000]

it really all has to go and come down to the more funding though

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, FPizz said:

Shows how sharp cutoffs can be in this area.  I live pretty much dead even between NYC and Philly, and that same 7 year average here is 22.375" or pretty much 8" more than NYC and JFK.  My worst stretch here was 96/97 through 01/02 (6 years), the average was only 17.3".  8 out of the 10 years in the 90s were complete trash as well.  Those 8 years averaged only 17", but 93/94 and 95/96 bumped the decade average up to 27" since those 2 were amazing winters.  08/09-14/15 averaged 41.6", which is my best stretch here.  Way too many sweeping generalizations get posted in here.  

Definitely lots if generalizations haha. 

The current 7 year avg for Detroit is 36.6". Below avg but nothing eye popping at all (1880-2025 avg is 41"). Nothing close to lowest.

The highest 7 year average was 59.8", ending in 2014. (I averaged 61.1"!)

The lowest 7 year average was 26.5", ending in 1950.

The 1990s were crap here. Very similar to the 1950s. As someone who's school years spanned the 1990s its crazy how much more snow I remember in college and beyond than growing up (the anti old-timer).

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

The most amazing thing about that 7/8-year stretch from 08-09/09-10 to 15-16 is that we put up those snow totals despite having 2 years with virtually no snow in the middle. Imagine how much more those snow totals could have been if we got anything in 11-12 and 12-13.

PHL could set a record for the lowest 10-year running average snowfall in 25-26. Anything less than 13.4 inches would break the record of 13.2 inches average from 1922-23 to 1931-32.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Definitely lots if generalizations haha. 

The current 7 year avg for Detroit is 36.6". Below avg but nothing eye popping at all (1880-2025 avg is 41"). Nothing close to lowest.

The highest 7 year average was 59.8", ending in 2014. (I averaged 61.1"!)

The lowest 7 year average was 26.5", ending in 1950.

The 1990s were crap here. Very similar to the 1950s. As someone who's school years spanned the 1990s its crazy how much more snow I remember in college and beyond than growing up (the anti old-timer).

 

and yet we still have not had winters like 1993-94 and 1995-96 and 2002-03 here in terms of wall to wall snow and wall to wall cold.

2002-03 was the last of those winters here.

 

[LibertyBell]

36 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The most amazing thing about that 7/8-year stretch from 08-09/09-10 to 15-16 is that we put up those snow totals despite having 2 years with virtually no snow in the middle. Imagine how much more those snow totals could have been if we got anything in 11-12 and 12-13.

PHL could set a record for the lowest 10-year running average snowfall in 25-26. Anything less than 13.4 inches would break the record of 13.2 inches average from 1922-23 to 1931-32.

But none of those were wall to wall winters.

08-09 was decent but mostly had small events, January was dry and cold

09-10 ended after February

10-11 ended after January

13-14 ended after February

14-15 began on January 20

15-16 started on January 20 and ended on February 20

 

None of these measure up to 93-94, 95-96 and 02-03.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

13-14 and 14-15 were wall-to-wall winters, or at least very close. Both were very cold and snowy from at least January to March, with each having a cold November, and 13-14 a taste of winter in early December (before a 2nd half of the month thaw).

08-09 definitely felt like a longer winter than 09-10 and 10-11. It's just that the cold and snow didn't come hand-in-hand. The cold was there in October-January, but the two snow events happened in early February (this one was more isolated) and early March (the Nor'easter).

Of course, 15-16 was saved by the massive snowstorm. Otherwise, it would have been another warm and snowless winter that has become more commonplace since 11-12.

[snowman19]

Look at this drop off in region 3.4. I’m starting to think we actually do see an official La Niña 

In other news…even though we are descending (slowly) from the solar max peak, the sunspots are still very active as is geomag

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

13-14 and 14-15 were wall-to-wall winters, or at least very close. Both were very cold and snowy from at least January to March, with each having a cold November, and 13-14 a taste of winter in early December (before a 2nd half of the month thaw).

08-09 definitely felt like a longer winter than 09-10 and 10-11. It's just that the cold and snow didn't come hand-in-hand. The cold was there in October-January, but the two snow events happened in early February (this one was more isolated) and early March (the Nor'easter).

Of course, 15-16 was saved by the massive snowstorm. Otherwise, it would have been another warm and snowless winter that has become more commonplace since 11-12.

December 2014 was pretty poor.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Look at this drop off in region 3.4. I’m starting to think we actually do see an official La Niña 

In other news…even though we are descending (slowly) from the solar max peak, the sunspots are still very active as is geomag

I doubt it will hit official, but we'll see...doesn't matter, as we've discussed.

[donsutherland1]

10 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

13-14 and 14-15 were wall-to-wall winters, or at least very close. Both were very cold and snowy from at least January to March, with each having a cold November, and 13-14 a taste of winter in early December (before a 2nd half of the month thaw).

08-09 definitely felt like a longer winter than 09-10 and 10-11. It's just that the cold and snow didn't come hand-in-hand. The cold was there in October-January, but the two snow events happened in early February (this one was more isolated) and early March (the Nor'easter).

Of course, 15-16 was saved by the massive snowstorm. Otherwise, it would have been another warm and snowless winter that has become more commonplace since 11-12.

Philadelphia had a nice snowstorm on December 8, 2013. People were caught by surprise. I was there and snapped this photo of Independence Hall.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

and yet we still have not had winters like 1993-94 and 1995-96 and 2002-03 here in terms of wall to wall snow and wall to wall cold.

2002-03 was the last of those winters here.

 

In this new, warmer climate, I don't see how we have a winter like 2002-2003 again unless all of our houses float away in a pool of molten lava.

JK Chris....I do agree that the ship has sailed on that magnitide of sustained cold at this point.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Philadelphia had a nice snowstorm on December 8, 2013. People were caught by surprise. I was there and snapped this photo of Independence Hall.

Yeah, that snowstorm brought us the LeSean McCoy snow game against the Lions, as well as the crazy ending of the Vikings-Ravens game in Baltimore.

The first half of that December was great. The 2nd half of December was the thaw period of that winter. Once the calendar flipped to January, the winter ramped up and didn't really let up until the end of March/beginning of April.

[bluewave]

The record high dew points have produced the top 5 warmest low temperatures since June 20th from the Midwest to the East Coast. 
 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

In this new, warmer climate, I don't see how we have a winter like 2002-2003 again unless all of our houses float away in a pool of molten lava.

JK Chris....I do agree that the ship has sailed on that magnitide of sustained cold at this point.

I'm glad you remember it as well as I do, Ray.  I feel like the younger kids won't remember that kind of winter....

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The record high dew points have produced the top 5 warmest low temperatures since June 20th from the Midwest to the East Coast. 
 

 

 

That just makes for a boring summer, I'm glad we got the historic heat in late June, otherwise this summer would be VERY mediocre.

[LibertyBell]

51 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Yeah, that snowstorm brought us the LeSean McCoy snow game against the Lions, as well as the crazy ending of the Vikings-Ravens game in Baltimore.

The first half of that December was great. The 2nd half of December was the thaw period of that winter. Once the calendar flipped to January, the winter ramped up and didn't really let up until the end of March/beginning of April.

it always seems to be like that, the part of December that's snowy being the early part and a thaw later in the month and then winter ramps up again in January.

in 2013-14 winter was over here after February, we didn't get anything of significance in March and especially not April.

2014-2015 for what it's worth was a far superior winter here with a very snowy January-February-March (but not December.)

 

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

13-14 and 14-15 were wall-to-wall winters, or at least very close. Both were very cold and snowy from at least January to March, with each having a cold November, and 13-14 a taste of winter in early December (before a 2nd half of the month thaw).

08-09 definitely felt like a longer winter than 09-10 and 10-11. It's just that the cold and snow didn't come hand-in-hand. The cold was there in October-January, but the two snow events happened in early February (this one was more isolated) and early March (the Nor'easter).

Of course, 15-16 was saved by the massive snowstorm. Otherwise, it would have been another warm and snowless winter that has become more commonplace since 11-12.

March 2014 was very bad here, maybe better by you because you're south of us and there was a lot of suppression that winter.

2014-15 finished very strong but December - January 20th was mild and basically snowless.

 

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

13-14 and 14-15 were wall-to-wall winters, or at least very close. Both were very cold and snowy from at least January to March, with each having a cold November, and 13-14 a taste of winter in early December (before a 2nd half of the month thaw).

08-09 definitely felt like a longer winter than 09-10 and 10-11. It's just that the cold and snow didn't come hand-in-hand. The cold was there in October-January, but the two snow events happened in early February (this one was more isolated) and early March (the Nor'easter).

Of course, 15-16 was saved by the massive snowstorm. Otherwise, it would have been another warm and snowless winter that has become more commonplace since 11-12.

08-09 was a much better winter than the previous two and it kicked off our snowier pattern.  We had our first snowy noreaster in like 3 years on March 1, 2009.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

25 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm glad you remember it as well as I do, Ray.  I feel like the younger kids won't remember that kind of winter....

Like it was yesterday....I was in the Marines and flew home just to be there for PD II and I got caught in a subsidence hole. I almost swallowed my rifle I was so despondent lol 2'+ all around me and I had like a foot. The the same thing happened again 10 months later in December....so 2003 can Eff right off from a mesoscale standpoint, although I know it was favorable from a larger, synoptic scale perspective.

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

In this new, warmer climate, I don't see how we have a winter like 2002-2003 again unless all of our houses float away in a pool of molten lava.

JK Chris....I do agree that the ship has sailed on that magnitide of sustained cold at this point.

For me, in winter, I'm looking for snow and just cold enough (which 9x out of 10 that is what happens when it snows here.  Super cold snowstorms are always rare in the NJ/NYC area).  Whether it melts or not, it doesn't matter too much to me.  02/03 I had 53", 20/21 I had 51", so I'm pretty confident that we will still get big snow winters, which I think we all are yearning for anyway.  

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Like it was yesterday....I was in the Marines and flew home just to be there for PD II and I got caught in a subsidence hole. I almost swallowed my rifle I was so despondent lol 2'+ all around me and I had like a foot. The the same thing happened again 10 months later in December....so 2003 can Eff right off from a mesoscale standpoint, although I know it was favorable from a larger, synoptic scale perspective.

That absolutely sucks and reminds me of February 2006 when the city had over 2 feet of snow and I had 13 inches lol, it must have been the same thing.  What everyone thought was an HECS I thought was a run of the mill midwinter snowstorm.

What made it even worse was that was basically the only snowstorm of the entire winter for my area.

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That absolutely sucks and reminds me of February 2006 when the city had over 2 feet of snow and I had 13 inches lol, it must have been the same thing.  What everyone thought was an HECS I thought was a run of the mill midwinter snowstorm.

What made it even worse was that was basically the only snowstorm of the entire winter for my area.

That was before Understood mid level banding well...I remember I kept waiting for that band that came up from the tri state and was over the Berkshires to slide east, but of course it never did. I had about 16".

[michsnowfreak]

18 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

and yet we still have not had winters like 1993-94 and 1995-96 and 2002-03 here in terms of wall to wall snow and wall to wall cold.

2002-03 was the last of those winters here.

 

Wall to wall snow and cold is still kind of subjective. By far the poster child for that here is 2013-14. Honestly, no other winter came close. I mean, 1977-78 was wall to wall but it got quiet after the Jan blizzard. In 2013-14, it was truly non stop snow, non stop bitter cold, and non stop deep snowpack.

1993-94 was a solid winter here but I wouldnt call it wall to wall. 1995-96 was cold and dry yuck. 2002-03 was a pretty wall to wall winter, but Id easily put 2008-09, 2010-11, 2013-14, 2017-18 ahead of that. 2007-08 was wall to wall snow but not cold. 

NOV 2013

DEC 2013

JAN 2014

FEB 2014

MAR 2014

APR 2014

[snowman19]

I doubt it will hit official, but we'll see...doesn't matter, as we've discussed.

There isn’t a true difference between a weak Niña and a cold-neutral/Nada anyway. The emerging -IOD, -PDO, -PMM, +SOI, Nino 3.4 cooling/trades, MJO behavior and the MEI give me confidence that we will see a La Niña pattern regardless. 2nd year -ENSO’s are known for a more Niña like pattern

[bluewave]

15 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

But none of those were wall to wall winters.

08-09 was decent but mostly had small events, January was dry and cold

09-10 ended after February

10-11 ended after January

13-14 ended after February

14-15 began on January 20

15-16 started on January 20 and ended on February 20

 

None of these measure up to 93-94, 95-96 and 02-03.

1995-1996 is still is unsurpassed for wall to wall cold and snow from late November right into early April. Getting 80” to 90” of snow on Long Island was epic. Probably the most perfect balance of long duration sustained cold and great snowstorms.

While 2002-2003 was still great, it was an overall weaker reflection of 1995-1996.

For short term snowfall intensity combined with short term sustained cold I would rank 12-26-10 to 1-27 -11 the best little over a month winter period with some spots getting 60”. If we could have found a way to sustain that for more than that short period, then we could have beaten 1995-1996.

While I am extremely grateful for 2009-2010 to 2017-2018, it would have been nice if we could have surpassed 1995-1996. DC to Philly set their all-time snowiest season in 2009-2010. With Boston putting up their best in 2014-2015. 

 

Data for October 1, 1995 through April 30, 1996
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

PATCHOGUE 2 N	COOP	92.0
UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK	COOP	86.2
BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP	84.0
DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	83.1
WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	80.7
GREENPORT POWER HOUSE	COOP	80.0
RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	78.8
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	77.9
MINEOLA 1 NE	COOP	77.8
ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	77.1
NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	75.6
NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN	COOP	69.9
OCEANSIDE	COOP	69.0
JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	69.0

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

1995-1996 is still is unsurpassed for wall to wall cold and snow from late November right into early April. Getting 80” to 90” of snow on Long Island was epic. Probably the most perfect balance of long duration sustained cold and great snowstorms.

While 2002-2003 was still great, it was an overall weaker reflection of 1995-1996.

For short term snowfall intensity combined with short term sustained cold I would rank 12-26-10 to 1-27 -11 the best little over a month winter period with some spots getting 60”. If we could have found a way to sustain that for more than that short period, then we could have beaten 1995-1996.

While I am extremely grateful for 2009-2010 to 2017-2018, it would have been nice if we could have surpassed 1995-1996. DC to Philly set their all-time snowiest season in 2009-2010. With Boston putting up their best in 2014-2015. 

 

Data for October 1, 1995 through April 30, 1996
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

PATCHOGUE 2 N	COOP	92.0
UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK	COOP	86.2
BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP	84.0
DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	83.1
WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	80.7
GREENPORT POWER HOUSE	COOP	80.0
RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	78.8
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	77.9
MINEOLA 1 NE	COOP	77.8
ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	77.1
NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	75.6
NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN	COOP	69.9
OCEANSIDE	COOP	69.0
JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	69.0

I agree about the 30 day intensity of 12/26/10-1/27/11 I had my most snowcover I've ever seen and it lasted right through Valentines Day which is absolutely amazing for the south shore!  It felt like being in the Poconos with how much snow was on the ground here (it even covered the top of my above ground pond!)

What's our greatest calendar year total for snowfall? And total 12 month overall highest total? I feel like that could be 2003 (January 2003 to December 2003) and for twelve months from February 2010 through January 2011?  If we hadn't gotten that near miss in early February 2010 we could have done it in the 2009-2010 winter too (although that snow season ended so abruptly after February, like 2010-2011 ended abruptly after January.)

2014-2015 had similar long duration snowcover as 2010-11 but shifted to the latter part of the season, I loved January 20 2015 - March 2015.  A combination of 2010-11 early on and 2014-15 later on would have been truly historic too!

 

The amazing thing about 1995-96 is we had what would in most seasons be considered an HECS in December, a blockbuster HECS in January and then a three week thaw (complete with severe thunderstorms, flooding, roof collapses and temperatures in the upper 60s) and an abrupt change back to arctic cold and snow in late January and early February followed by what could be considered a third HECS in February and then 3 or 4 4 inch moderate snowfall events in March followed by that big wet snowstorm in April (some places including eastern Long Island actually saw two snowstorms in April!)

That winter had absolutely EVERYTHING from big snowstorms of 10+ to what has become very rare for us moderate sized events of 3-6 inches and both early and late season snowstorms.

2002-03 had many of the same things (and a very rare white Christmas with an actual snowstorm later on Christmas Eve) just in smaller amounts than what 1995-96 had.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

56 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

There isn’t a true difference between a weak Niña and a cold-neutral/Nada anyway. The emerging -IOD, -PDO, -PMM, +SOI, Nino 3.4 cooling/trades, MJO behavior and the MEI give me confidence that we will see a La Niña pattern regardless. 2nd year -ENSO’s are known for a more Niña like pattern

 

 

 

 

Complete agreement...only matters for verification purposes.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Wall to wall snow and cold is still kind of subjective. By far the poster child for that here is 2013-14. Honestly, no other winter came close. I mean, 1977-78 was wall to wall but it got quiet after the Jan blizzard. In 2013-14, it was truly non stop cold, non stop bitter cold, and non stop deep snowpack.

1993-94 was a solid winter here but I wouldnt call it wall to wall. 1995-96 was cold and dry yuck. 2002-03 was a pretty wall to wall winter, but Id easily put 2008-09, 2010-11, 2013-14, 2017-18 ahead of that. 2007-08 was wall to wall snow but not cold. 

NOV 2013

DEC 2013

JAN 2014

FEB 2014

MAR 2014

APR 2014

How was 2014-15 by you, for us it was a backend winter but February and March were absolutely historic.  2013-14 was very good but I found 2014-15 to be better (2013-14 had many mixed events here while 2014-15 was mostly all snow and colder later in the season.)

 

[LibertyBell]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

1995-1996 is still is unsurpassed for wall to wall cold and snow from late November right into early April. Getting 80” to 90” of snow on Long Island was epic. Probably the most perfect balance of long duration sustained cold and great snowstorms.

While 2002-2003 was still great, it was an overall weaker reflection of 1995-1996.

For short term snowfall intensity combined with short term sustained cold I would rank 12-26-10 to 1-27 -11 the best little over a month winter period with some spots getting 60”. If we could have found a way to sustain that for more than that short period, then we could have beaten 1995-1996.

While I am extremely grateful for 2009-2010 to 2017-2018, it would have been nice if we could have surpassed 1995-1996. DC to Philly set their all-time snowiest season in 2009-2010. With Boston putting up their best in 2014-2015. 

 

Data for October 1, 1995 through April 30, 1996
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

PATCHOGUE 2 N	COOP	92.0
UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK	COOP	86.2
BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP	84.0
DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	83.1
WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	80.7
GREENPORT POWER HOUSE	COOP	80.0
RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	78.8
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	77.9
MINEOLA 1 NE	COOP	77.8
ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	77.1
NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	75.6
NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN	COOP	69.9
OCEANSIDE	COOP	69.0
JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	69.0

OCEANSIDECOOP  69.0

JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORTWBAN  69.0

 

I'm very annoyed by these 69 inch measurements lol, we all undermeasured the January 1996 blizzard so I'm sure we were all over 70 inches and probably all over 72 inches (6 feet) of snow!

There was a 96 inch measurement (8 feet) somewhere on Long Island, I just don't remember exactly where.  Maybe Ed in Smithtown?

[brooklynwx99]

from what i've seen, last winter looks like a really good analog for this one. when taking all relevant years into account, there should be a decent amount of poleward AK ridging with some blocking potential early on. however, Feb looks warm and should push the winter's temps AN