2025-2026 ENSO

[bluewave]

22-23 was a little lower for snowfall around NYC than 01-02. But 01-02 remains a little warmer. If the 01-02 snowfall and temperature departures occurred again in this much warmer climate, then NYC would probably finish up with only around 1” or less of snow and a winter average temperature close to 43.0°.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Oct through Sep Top 10 lowest snowfall seasons 
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2022-2023	2.3	0
2	1972-1973	2.8	0
3	2001-2002	3.5	0
4	1918-1919	3.8	0
5	2019-2020	4.8	0
6	1931-1932	5.3	0
7	1997-1998	5.5	0
8	2011-2012	7.4	0
9	2023-2024	7.5	0
10	1988-1989	8.1	0
-	1877-1878	8.1	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Top 10 Warmest Winters 
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2001-2002	41.5	0
2	2022-2023	41.0	0
-	2015-2016	41.0	0
3	2023-2024	40.6	0
4	2011-2012	40.5	0
5	1931-1932	40.1	0
6	1997-1998	39.6	0
7	2016-2017	39.3	0
8	2019-2020	39.2	0
9	1990-1991	39.1	0
10	1998-1999	38.6	0

[snowman19]

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^Man what a horrible SSTA map, lol

Best thing is northern Indian Ocean isn't that warm. 

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

As bad as 97-98 and 11-12 were, I think the worst of all time was 01-02. If there was ever a winter that was over before it even began, that was the one. Not only was it an absolute torch from November through March, it was also dry as all hell

But not in Atlanta, where they had a ~4.5” (major) snowstorm in early Jan, the biggest since the 3/1993 blizzard.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The 20 most recent warm minus cold CONUS Winter's.. 1993-2025. This is SSTA's Sept-Nov before. east-based El Nino hugging the American coast is the biggest signal

July before.. +2c off of Peru there is really strong for most recent 20 years/33. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^Switching to more El Nino's in the coming time may not mean colder US Winter's.  I've always contended that La Nina is the colder pattern anyway if you take the static of NAO out of the equation. 

[snowman19]

12 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^Man what a horrible SSTA map, lol
Best thing is northern Indian Ocean isn't that warm. 

@Stormchaserchuck1 @bluewave Speaking of the IO….the new EURO guidance is insisting on a solid negative IOD

 

 

 

 

[GaWx]

 The WCS version of the PDO has fallen quite a bit more since July 2nd. As of July 6th, it’s way down to -3.29! It was actually down to ~-3.30 on July 5th. I’ve never seen this so negative. The NOAA daily PDO is likely down to sub -4!

[George BM]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The WCS version of the PDO has fallen quite a bit more since July 2nd. As of July 6th, it’s way down to -3.29! It was actually down to ~-3.30 on July 5th. I’ve never seen this so negative. The NOAA daily PDO is likely down to sub -4!

Since the daily index hit -2.00 nearly 3 weeks ago I've been waiting for a bounce up that, thus far, refuses to commence. It OBVIOUSLY will bounce back up a bit sooner rather than later but this has been impressive to track.

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@Stormchaserchuck1 @bluewave Speaking of the IO….the new EURO guidance is insisting on a solid negative IOD

 

 

 

 

We keep setting new records by significant margins with  that WPAC warm pool driving this pattern.

 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

13 hours ago, GaWx said:

But not in Atlanta, where they had a ~4.5” (major) snowstorm in early Jan, the biggest since the 3/1993 blizzard.

Even New England had the one snowstorm that made the season memorable, on 1/19/2002. Who could forget about the Tuck Rule game? I mean, Raiders fans won't care that the winter of 2001-02 was one of the warmest and least snowy winters in New England, all they'll remember is the one night it snowed that winter and their team getting screwed by that call.

Even this year in Philly, we didn't get a snow season. But we did get that memorable snowstorm on that Sunday we played the Rams in the playoffs.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^Switching to more El Nino's in the coming time may not mean colder US Winter's.  I've always contended that La Nina is the colder pattern anyway if you take the static of NAO out of the equation. 

Eh....depends. If they are really strong and east-based....but I will take my chances with a weaker El Nino that is biased west any day of the week over La Nina of any type as far as snowfall goes. I know its different down there. I don't give a rat's a$$ about the cold if it isn't going to snow...last season was awful. I would take any of the last several years over that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

35 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Even New England had the one snowstorm that made the season memorable, on 1/19/2002. Who could forget about the Tuck Rule game? I mean, Raiders fans won't care that the winter of 2001-02 was one of the warmest and least snowy winters in New England, all they'll remember is the one night it snowed that winter and their team getting screwed by that call.

Even this year in Philly, we didn't get a snow season. But we did get that memorable snowstorm on that Sunday we played the Rams in the playoffs.

That was literally the only redeemable event in that god foresaken season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^Man what a horrible SSTA map, lol

Best thing is northern Indian Ocean isn't that warm. 

Could allow for some variability with respect to the WPO, thought it would still undoubtedly average positive with the West PAC so warm.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

Best matches to the MJ MEI value are 2007, 2008 and 2021, with the quick jump being most similar to 2007.

[snowman19]

We keep setting new records by significant margins with  that WPAC warm pool driving this pattern.
 
 

Yep. And in other shocking news….MJO phases 5-6-7 are dominating again. Groundhog Day

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yep. And in other shocking news….MJO phases 5-6-7 are dominating again. Groundhog Day

 

 

 

 

Yeah, this has been the dominant pattern of the 2020s.

 

 

[jm1220]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, this has been the dominant pattern of the 2020s.

 

 

Heading towards another slam the blinds shut winter. Maybe I should co side moving back south lol. At least the severe season produces in TX. And always a chance of a suppressed snow system that can’t drop a flurry north of Cape May. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Heading towards another slam the blinds shut winter. Maybe I should co side moving back south lol. At least the severe season produces in TX. And always a chance of a suppressed snow system that can’t drop a flurry north of Cape May. 

I'm hoping for a 2007-2008 type of coutcome....fast-paced barrage of storms combined with warmth that wasn't prohibitive......caveat being I know it sucked south of about I-84.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Eh....depends. If they are really strong and east-based....but I will take my chances with a weaker El Nino that is biased west any day of the week over La Nina of any type as far as snowfall goes. I know its different down there. I don't give a rat's a$$ about the cold if it isn't going to snow...last season was awful. I would take any of the last several years over that.

I still want to get a really strong east-based La Nina at some point.. but it may be very dry. El Nino's are for sure much wetter. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

We keep setting new records by significant margins with  that WPAC warm pool driving this pattern.

Any idea what's causing this? 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I still want to get a really strong east-based La Nina at some point.. but it may be very dry. El Nino's are for sure much wetter. 

But we all know that an east-based la nina has close to zero chance of happening, with Nino 1+2 being in a solid el nino state. I feel like the next strong/super el nino is going to take 1+2 off the charts, like 1982-83 or 1997-98.

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

But we all know that an east-based la nina has close to zero chance of happening, with Nino 1+2 being in a solid el nino state. I feel like the next strong/super el nino is going to take 1+2 off the charts, like 1982-83 or 1997-98.

Brutal...it makes every moderately strong ENSO event unfavorable....Modoki La Nina to east-based El Nino..back and forth. Its the @snowman19oscillation. The warmth there and especially the West Pacific is killing us.....I wish the waters around the dateline would warm up.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

30 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

But we all know that an east-based la nina has close to zero chance of happening, with Nino 1+2 being in a solid el nino state. I feel like the next strong/super el nino is going to take 1+2 off the charts, like 1982-83 or 1997-98.

I guess it's just really hard to get 23c waters right on the equator. The "average" is probably more towards El Nino than "0".

[TheClimateChanger]

On 7/3/2025 at 4:50 PM, michsnowfreak said:

I see what you did there .

What a laughable post. Avg Jan temps of 39.5F in cleveland . Only twice have they ever even seen that temp in Jan (1880 & 1932, long ago, so be prepared to be lectured on whats wrong with that data). January and February have been net gains for winter lovers here the past several decades (while Dec has been a net loss). And while its fairly easy for some to just flat out act like the warmer winters/summers pre-1960 didnt exist, its a lot harder to ignore the winters of 2000-2015 and just act like records began in 2016. Because we all remember them. So despite a handful of very mild winters since 2016, still absolutely net gains here for the snowlover.

Here is the change in January temperature at every first order site in Michigan and Ohio for their period of record. There is no cherry picking, no leaving out the sites I dont want to use...this is every one for their POR. Every site in OH has grown COLDER except Cleveland. Yes, im aware of site changes and what not. But to assert some magical bump of 15F in avg temp is just wild.

MI
Grand Rapids: 1894-2025: -0.7F
Houghton Lake: 1919-2025: -0.1F
Flint: 1921-2025: 0.0F
Detroit: 1874-2025: +0.7F
Saginaw: 1912-2025: +1.3F
Muskegan: 1897-2025: +1.6F
Alpena: 1917-2025: +1.6F
Sault Ste Marie: 1889-2025: +2.3F
Lansing: 1864-2025: +3.5F
Marquette 1962-2025: +5.9F
 

OH
Dayton: 1894-2025: -3.7F
Cincinnati: 1873-2025: -3.0F
Youngstown: 1931-2025: -1.9F
Wilimington: 1918-2025: -1.8F
Toledo: 1874-2025: -1.4F
Mansfield: 1917-2025: -1.2F
Columbus: 1879-2025: -0.5F
Akron: 1888-2025: -0.5F
Cleveland: 1871-2025: +0.9F
 

Several of those threaded records have large jumps in elevation, and many go from city center to suburban even rural. With even the stations outside of the bigger cities having significant biases. Regardless, again, you feel the need to interject with "context" unrelated to my original post.

Here is the full Ohio dataset for January. There is a small cooling trend from 1895-1969 of about 0.5F/century.

Since 1970, it's warming at a rate of 10.1F/century, and even higher than that in the northern parts of the state.

Grafted together, yes, it looks like there's not much trend. But what do you think is more relevant to determining trend over the coming decades - the most recent 5 1/2 decades, or data from the 1800s?

[TheClimateChanger]

Just now, TheClimateChanger said:

Several of those threaded records have large jumps in elevation, and many go from city center to suburban even rural. With even the stations outside of the bigger cities having significant biases. Regardless, again, you feel the need to interject with "context" unrelated to my original post.

Here is the full Ohio dataset for January. There is a small cooling trend from 1895-1969 of about 0.5F/century.

Since 1970, it's warming at a rate of 10.1F/century, and even higher than that in the northern parts of the state.

Grafted together, yes, it looks like there's not much trend. But what do you think is more relevant to determining trend over the coming decades - the most recent 5 1/2 decades, or data from the 1800s?

I can give you a clue. The period before 1970 was the twilight of relative climate stability. CO2 levels rose about 30 ppm between 1895 & 1969. They have risen another 100 ppm since then.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Man that 78-79 Winter sure was cold. What you guys would do for another one of these

3 consecutive Winters here in the late-1970s

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Any idea what's causing this? 

The semi-permanent subtropical ridge between 30°-60° N circling the Northern Hemisphere warming the SSTs below. As to why that mid-latitude band is the focus is anyone’s guess. While the climate models forecast the ridge axis and SST warming to be located more north, It’s verifying further south. Probably just an incomplete model based on our current understanding of the climate. But at least the model got the idea of stronger ridging warming the SSTs below correct even if it’s located further south.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Man that 78-79 Winter sure was cold. What you guys would do for another one of these

3 consecutive Winters here in the late-1970s

I have a few choice words for what you could do with 1978-1979, but a renactment wouldn't be one of the options-

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Man that 78-79 Winter sure was cold. What you guys would do for another one of these

3 consecutive Winters here in the late-1970s

The biggest takeaway here is that we didn't even have that record warm in west coast like we did in 2013-14 and 2014-15.