2025-2026 ENSO

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Southern Hemisphere AAO so far this July:

1-Jul-25				1.8937
2-Jul-25				2.248
3-Jul-25				2.8385
4-Jul-25				3.1945
5-Jul-25				2.5837
6-Jul-25				2.1543

The correlation is pretty cool.. right at 90N the following January

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

NWS DJF 2014-15 probabilities released in 11/2014: best cold chances centered in south

Actual 2014-5 DJF vs 1981-2010: coldest in NE not south

I'm not picky about this stuff.. I would say that it was a good forecast because it got the West coast ridge, and half of the below average trough. Usually they are at least near by what happens with forecasts. 

[michsnowfreak]

43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right....this is a tough pill for some to swallow, apparently.

If the seasonal models were showing a warm or torch winter there is exactly 0.0% doubt that the same ones so against it being mentioned would be all over it. It always goes without saying that a model should never be taken verbatim, but wed have all these posts about why the models are catching on to something.

[GaWx]

12 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'm not picky about this stuff.. I would say that it was a good forecast because it got the West coast ridge, and half of the below average trough. Usually they are at least near by what happens with forecasts. 

NWS 11/15/2013 probabilities for DJF 2013-4 weren’t all that telling as they underdid the prospects for widespread cold though they hinted ok at where the coldest and warmest ended up being:

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 day lead though.. I'd rather see what their forecasts looked like 3-6 months in advance. 

[GaWx]

 

43 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

9 day lead though.. I'd rather see what their forecasts looked like 3-6 months in advance. 

 Unfortunately, the best I’ve found archived is the 0.5 month lead like I posted.

 They did pretty well in Nov of 2015 for DJF 2015-6: I give them a B for the US as a whole

 
 

 

 -They did so-so in Nov 2016 for DJF 2016-7: my grade C for US overall

-NOAA did well in 11/2017 for DJF 2017-8: A

-They were absolutely awful in 11/2018 for 2018-9: F

-2019-20 mediocre at best: C

-2020-1 poor: D

-2021-2 pretty good: B

-2022-3 pretty good: B

-2023-4 very good: A

-2024-5 lousy: D

——————

Summary of my overall US grades of Nov NOAA probabilities for DJF temps:

2013-4: C

2014-5: B

2015-6: B

2016-7: C

2017-8: A

2018-9: F

2019-20: C

2020-1: D

2021-2: B

2022-3: B

2023-4: A

2024-5: D

 

Tally:

A: 2

B: 4

C: 3

D: 2

F: 1

 

NOAA GPA for 0.5 month lead of last 12 DJF for US as a whole: 2.3/C+ (not bad)

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Seasonal models are never going to accurately depict any anomaly of that magnitude, though....and obviously all of the higher magnitude anomalies have been warm over the past decade, so that is going to cause a cold bias. Go back to the fall of 2014 and show me a seasonal that nailed that anomaly.....

I already gave the JMA credit for seeing the record TNH pattern for the 13-14 winter. 
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I feel pretty good about next season not being a complete blood bath is all I mean.

[roardog]

Quite Frankly, models suck with 2m temp anomalies in the medium range, never mind a seasonal forecast. It's pretty much useless to look at IMO. They are a little better with 850 temp anomalies but not much. It's best to just look at their 500mb anomaly forecasts and that will give you an idea on what temp anomalies would be if that particular map was to come to fruition.  

 

[GaWx]

16 minutes ago, roardog said:

Quite Frankly, models suck with 2m temp anomalies in the medium range, never mind a seasonal forecast. It's pretty much useless to look at IMO. They are a little better with 850 temp anomalies but not much. It's best to just look at their 500mb anomaly forecasts and that will give you an idea on what temp anomalies would be if that particular map was to come to fruition.  

 

 Maybe so, but keep in mind that H5 forecasts are sometimes pretty lousy, themselves.

[roardog]

Just now, GaWx said:

 Maybe so, but keep in mind that H5 forecasts are sometimes pretty lousy, themselves.

They are but what I'm saying is we often see H5 forecasts that don't make sense with 2m temp forecasts. You'll see a forecast in the medium range for a massive ridge over Alaska in January with a flow directly from the north pole into the northern plains and the 2m temp anomalies will show normal or barely below normal. This is where you look at that map and realize it would be frigid in that location if that actual H5 forecast verified. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

SOI is finally getting out of Weak-La Nina territory

6 Jul 2025

1011.51

1014.55

-24.56

 

TAO/Triton subsurface has warmed a lot.. +1c near the surface.. no more central-subsurface cold pool of any significance

[mitchnick]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Any long range ensemble suite is going to have a smoothed mean....and I know most of the climate guidance is an average of a number of runs smoothed out. This is why you never see 2 feet of snowfall predicated from an ensemble mean at day 7....it doesn't mean it can't happen, nor does it mean that the data doesn't have value. I agree the trend is somewhat important.

I hadn't posted this, but meant to relating to the trend issue. Top pic is the Euro seasonal June temp forecast for OND and the bottom is July's forecast for same period. I know 2 months aren't a trend, but again, it's moving toward the Cansip with a non-furnace Canada into the Conus. Plus, AN areas aren't going wild.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Why OND? 

[snowman19]

I'm JB because I reported model data?

There wasn’t even the slightest bit of seriousness in my post. Clearly a joke

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, mitchnick said:

I hadn't posted this, but meant to relating to the trend issue. Top pic is the Euro seasonal June temp forecast for OND and the bottom is July's forecast for same period. I know 2 months aren't a trend, but again, it's moving toward the Cansip with a non-furnace Canada into the Conus. Plus, AN areas aren't going wild.

That looks more like the other guidance with the heat bottled up in the southern planes IVO Texas....more -EPO like. I buy that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Why OND? 

Probably doesn't go out any further?

[bluewave]

On 7/5/2025 at 3:31 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

bluewave by your posts I would surmise that you are saying NYC is going to average 15"/snow/yr from here on out. No matter, regardless. I don't think that's going to happen... we might have a tough few years with the flux of some things still being unfavorable, but weather patterns wax and wane.. eventually we will enter a better pattern, and the global warming isn't that advanced yet. 

Most of my posts are based on what has already happened over the last 30 to 60 years around NYC Metro. The last 7 seasons with well below normal snowfall are just a small microcosm of this greater pattern with our snowfall over this much longer period. The same way the 09-10 to 17-18 period was. 

During the colder climate era from the early 1960s to early 1990s my area would get many snowfall seasons near the middle of the range with very few well above or well below seasons.

As our climate began to really warm since the mid 90s, the snowfall around NYC has shifted to an all or nothing type of pattern. Very few seasons near the middle of the range anymore with nearly all seasons now well below or well above.

Since the mid 90s we have become exclusively reliant on KU benchmark snowstorms to reach average to above average snowfall. So from 09-10 to 17-18 we had a record number of these storms. We were in a transition phase when we began to see extreme winter warmth starting with the +13 December 2015. This carried over into 17-18 with our first 80° winter warmth in February 2018. But the storm tracks still remained cold. So we were getting warm and snowy winters.

Things began to shift again in 18-19 with the storm tracks becoming warmer to match the general warmth which began in December 2015. So the storm tracks still warming lagged the general winter warming which began in 15-16.

The 7 year period since 18-19 has featured the warmest 7 year winter storm track and lowest snowfall totals. So now we are getting consistently warmer background winter patterns and storm tracks. While this past winter was the first since 15-16 to feature near to slightly below average temperatures, the storm tracks remained warm like they have since 18-19. While the NYC average winter temperature was near 35°, the average temperature on the days that .25 or more of precipitation fell was 41°. So smother well below normal snowfall season.

From the early 60s to 90s we had multiple ways to get closer to average snowfall. So we didn’t have to exclusively rely on benchmark KU events. The colder pattern allowed for hugger tracks which dumped heavier snow amounts before mixing to rain. Plus their we’re frequent clipper tracks to our south which have been missing in recent years. So fewer options to get to average snowfall. These days it’s all Great Lakes cutter tracks which are all rain. The hugger tracks are too warm to deliver the heavier snows which got us to normal snowfall in the colder climate. These days the benchmark tracks have been replaced by cutters, huggers, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. 

Looking forward we have a few options. While the winter warming absent a major volcanic event will continue, it’s uncertain whether we will see at least an intermittent return to benchmark storm tracks again. 

Scenario #1 is that we shifted into a permanently lower snowfall regime in 18-19 and the low snowfall seasons will become the new normal. Maybe an odd snowy season now and then in the mix. 

Scenario #2 is a temporary shift to more benchmark tracks and closer to average snowfall later in the 2020s into the early 2030s. But winters would still likely stay warmer even though the storm tracks shifted to colder. We would eventually see another period of declining winter snowfall into the 2030s as the winter warming and return to warmer storm tracks reduce the snows again.

Scenario #3 would be a major volcanic eruption not seen for hundreds or thousands of years. Temporary return to colder and snowier winters. Very uncertain since a reliable long range volcanic forecast still doesn’t exist yet.