2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The WPAC SSTS up to this point are matching previous years that went on to see predominantly +WPO winters

I agree with you...as Chuck pointed out. Only positives for winter I suspect will be the EPO and some periods of blocking given the QBO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

None of our current teleconnection indices accurately capture the changes we have seen in the North Pacific since 2018-2019 that I have highlighted in my previous posts. The record ridge near the Aleutians and to the east of Japan and attendant shift north in the  storm track doesn’t fit neatly into either the Western Pacific oscillation of the North Pacific oscillation. Same goes for the record SSTs across the mid-latitudes of the North Pacific and Atlantic and subtropical ridge expansion. This is why the snowfall outcome was the same last winter with the strong -WPO interval in February as it had been with prior +WPO intervals. Both outcomes featured very strong Southeast Ridge patterns. 

I have pointed out to you before, the position of the PNA ridge also sucked, though......you are on this crusade to prove that replica patterns of the past are no longer producing. I don't think that is entirely true. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

July updated Euro seasonal still going with a La Nada:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_nino_plumes?base_time=202507010000&nino_area=NINO3-4

Here's a link to all the forecast parameters. It has cooled temps since the last run across NA and has a normal temps in Canada vs last run lending credence to the Cansips.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Long (Months)"]}

 

Something changed last season...irregardless of storm track, I think we are going to be seeing better antecedent air masses in southeast Canada this season, which will allow for more significant "front enders" that have been harder to come by in SNE and the northern mid Atlantic over the past several seasons.

[Yanksfan]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Something changed last season...irregardless of storm track, I think we are going to be seeing better antecedent air masses in southeast Canada this season, which will allow for more significant "front enders" that have been harder to come by in SNE and the northern mid Atlantic over the past several seasons.

What we need are benchmark tracks next winter something we never saw last winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Yanksfan said:

What we need are benchmark tracks next winter something we never saw last winter.

I wouldn't hold your breath on that with the +WPO/-PNA expectation.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have pointed out to you before, the position of the PNA ridge also sucked, though......you are on this crusade to prove that replica patterns of the past are no longer producing. I don't think that is entirely true. 

As I have pointed out, you are putting way too much stock in what the teleconnections have been to the north of the subtropics. No combination of WPO, EPO, PNA, AO, or NAO is going to produce a cold and snowy outcome along the I-95 corridor in the Northeast  provided that the winter subtropical ridge remains so robust.

We need a weaker Southeast Ridge/ Western Atlantic Ridge along with a much slower Pacific Jet. This is why even the -WPO, -EPO, +PNA, and record -AO -NAO block last February still produced a cutter with record snows in Toronto and Montreal with a rainstorm along the coast. The -5 sigma Greenland block linked up with the Southeast Ridge when in the past there would have been a deep trough underneath and a benchmark I-95 blizzard. 

The issue is the fast Pacific flow and robust subtropical ridges from Japan to Western Europe. So these ridges to the south joining with the ridges associated with the -WPO, -EPO, +PNA, -AO, and -NAO don’t leave any room for cold trough development under the ridges. 

 

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

How did it snow 10" in Florida? How did Valentine, Nebraska hit -31F when it was almost March? I was on this board saying that the pattern wasn't good for snow last February and that it wasn't going to snow.. I would dig it up, but there were like 10-15 posts about this in the Mid Atlantic forum. The NAO was south-based positive and there was High pressure in the North Pacific over the North Pacific High position. Plus it takes some time to detox the heavy -PNA/+AO that was the time before. Not a big anomaly. The big anomalies were Dec 2022 and March 2023, but teleconnection patterns aren't 100%, and sometimes other things dominate. Doesn't mean it's always going to be like that. I think we are going back to -NAO cold in the Winter time as Jan 2024 and Jan 2025 had this. The coastal SLP correlation is 5-6x greater in -NAO/+PNA than +NAO/-PNA. I should dig up those old posts... was saying it wasn't a great H5 pattern for snow that 5-7 day models were showing. We didn't have things at our latitude that were favoring cold and snow like a 50/50 low and NE N. Pacific low pressure.  

bluewave by your posts I would surmise that you are saying NYC is going to average 15"/snow/yr from here on out. No matter, regardless. I don't think that's going to happen... we might have a tough few years with the flux of some things still being unfavorable, but weather patterns wax and wane.. eventually we will enter a better pattern, and the global warming isn't that advanced yet. 

[GaWx]

42 minutes ago, bluewave said:

As I have pointed out, you are putting way too much stock in what the teleconnections have been to the north of the subtropics. No combination of WPO, EPO, PNA, AO, or NAO is going to produce a cold and snowy outcome along the I-95 corridor in the Northeast  provided that the winter subtropical ridge remains so robust.

The issue is the fast Pacific flow and robust subtropical ridges from Japan to Western Europe. So these ridges to the south joining with the ridges associated with the -WPO, -EPO, +PNA, -AO, and -NAO don’t leave any room for cold trough development under the ridges. 

Last 10 yrs:

Subtropical Pac:

 

Subtropical ATL:

 

ATL MDR:

[snowman19]

What we need are benchmark tracks next winter something we never saw last winter.

What we need are benchmark tracks next winter something we never saw last winter.

Literally every single chance we had at a KU event last winter from the end of November right through the end of March from PHL to NYC to BOS imploded. It found every way possible and then some to avoid a major snowstorm in that corridor. It was surreal

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

Literally every single chance we had at a KU event last winter from the end of November right through the end of March from PHL to NYC to BOS imploded. It found every way possible and then some to avoid a major snowstorm in that corridor. It was surreal

 

Down near Baltimore and DC it was a snowy January. I had snow on the ground pretty much the whole month. They had a 8-10" storm further south than I think another 6" storm.. it snowed like 15 days through the end of January.. not a horrible Winter. I understand further north it was drier, but sometimes early in the Winter the STJ is further south. 

[bluewave]

30 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Down near Baltimore and DC it was a snowy January. I had snow on the ground pretty much the whole month. They had a 8-10" storm further south than I think another 6" storm.. it snowed like 15 days through the end of January.. not a horrible Winter. I understand further north it was drier, but sometimes early in the Winter the STJ is further south. 

Great Lakes cutters, I-95 to I84 huggers, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks have been dominant since the 2018-2019 winter. This is what we have had with the much stronger Pacific Jet. 

With the Great Lakes Cutter track the fast Pacific flow carves out a trough out West and pumps the Southeast Ridge with an I-95 rainstorm. 

The hugger track has wave spacing issues due to too many short waves in the fast Pacific flow. So we get the brief light to sometimes moderate snows changing to rain.

Then there is the suppressed Southern Stream low due to the fast Pacific flow having a kicker trough coming into the West Coast. This doesn’t allow the Gulf low like the one last winter which gave record snows to the Gulf Coast to turn the corner and come up the coast. 

Then sometimes the lows come far enough north for DC to get snows but not areas further north. 

So the fast Pacific flow effectively turns off the benchmark snowstorm track. I hope we can see at least a small relaxation of this pattern in the coming years even if we still stay warm. Would take a warm and snowy La Niña winter like 16-17 and a weaker Pacific Jet in a second if I could get it. Wouldn’t mind a 60° day before of after some of the blizzards that season.  Now we just get the 60° days without the great snows. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

As I have pointed out, you are putting way too much stock in what the teleconnections have been to the north of the subtropics. No combination of WPO, EPO, PNA, AO, or NAO is going to produce a cold and snowy outcome along the I-95 corridor in the Northeast  provided that the winter subtropical ridge remains so robust.

We need a weaker Southeast Ridge/ Western Atlantic Ridge along with a much slower Pacific Jet. This is why even the -WPO, -EPO, +PNA, and record -AO -NAO block last February still produced a cutter with record snows in Toronto and Montreal with a rainstorm along the coast. The -5 sigma Greenland block linked up with the Southeast Ridge when in the past there would have been a deep trough underneath and a benchmark I-95 blizzard. 

The issue is the fast Pacific flow and robust subtropical ridges from Japan to Western Europe. So these ridges to the south joining with the

I just gave a reason why it didn't snow despite a +PNA and -WPO....the PNA ridge was too far west. How am I placing too much stock in the teleconnections??? You are the one that just said it didn't snow despite a -WPO period last season....

I would argue that the subtropical ridge won't remain so robust should the WPO flip negative....we argee the west Pacific warmth is largely responsible for that ridge, which is synonymous with a +WPO. This is largely why the past -PNA\-NAO intervals worked out better.....they were -WPO.

[Yanksfan]

57 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

Literally every single chance we had at a KU event last winter from the end of November right through the end of March from PHL to NYC to BOS imploded. It found every way possible and then some to avoid a major snowstorm in that corridor. It was surreal

 

Okay I get your point. It’s never going to snow again.

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, Yanksfan said:

Okay I get your point. It’s never going to snow again.

There are a couple of posters in this thread that are passive aggressively hunting that very response.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Then sometimes the lows come far enough north for DC to get snows but not areas further north. 

So the fast Pacific flow effectively turns off the benchmark snowstorm track. I hope we can see at least a small relaxation of this pattern in the coming years even if we still stay warm. Would take a warm and snowy La Niña winter like 16-17 and a weaker Pacific Jet in a second if I could get it. Wouldn’t mind a 60° day before of after some of the blizzards that season.  Now we just get the 60° days without the great snows. 

16-17 had a very sharp cutoff right around PHL, which had 15 inches of snow that year (which was even below the 18-19 total). DC and Baltimore had about 3 inches of snow the entire winter, which puts it as one of the Top 10 least snowiest winters for those cities.

I personally don't want that type of season again. The next time, the cutoff may be further north, and it may make 01-02/11-12 look like child's play.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'd kill for 2016-2017 right now...featured about normal snowfall and I haven't seem that since 2017-2018.