2025-2026 ENSO

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Important to note that the 2021 ridge had some local geographic factors involved in addition to just the strength. There was a major downslope east wind event coming off of the Cascade mountains due to a surface low off the coast. For our region, the equivalent would probably be a downsloping west wind event that would send central park and EWR well beyond all-time record highs. 

Forget EWR, they are always hot, it needs to get to JFK with temperatures of 100 or hotter.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

29 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Important to note that the 2021 ridge had some local geographic factors involved in addition to just the strength. There was a major downslope east wind event coming off of the Cascade mountains due to a surface low off the coast. For our region, the equivalent would probably be a downsloping west wind event that would send central park and EWR well beyond all-time record highs. 

Is this what happened on 7/22/2011 when EWR got to 108?

[bluewave]

23 hours ago, roardog said:

This year looks different though in the sense that the western US is going to be very cool with maybe some significant snow in the mountains.

That’s the thing though. We have been seeing near to record Southeast Ridges over the last decade with both -PNA and +PNA patterns. So the wavelengths have been shifting to allow for this new circulation pattern.

The Northeast set all time 500mb height record around 599 DM last June with a very strong +PNA. Same for the the all-time June heat in 2021 with a June 500mb height near the record. This time around we look to challenge the 500mb record only a year later with a -PNA and more record heat for June possible.
 

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.pna.index.b500101.current.ascii

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Is this what happened on 7/22/2011 when EWR got to 108?

That was one of our last historic heatwaves because the entire region got above 100

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s the thing though. We have been seeing near to record Southeast Ridges over the last decade with both -PNA and +PNA patterns. So the wavelengths have been shifting to allow for this new circulation pattern.

The Northeast set all time 500mb height record around 599 DM last June with a very strong +PNA. Same for the the all-time June heat in 2021 with a June 500mb height near the record. This time around we look to challenge the 500mb record only a year later with a -PNA and more record heat for June possible.
 

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.pna.index.b500101.current.ascii

 

and yet our last real extreme records were from 2011, so I'm not sure how much this translates to the surface.

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

and yet our last real extreme records were from 2011, so I'm not sure how much this translates to the surface.

It translated to the surface in June 2021 with all-time monthly high temperature records around NYC. EWR ranked #1 and LGA #2.  Caribou tied their all-time June high in 2024 with the record Southeast Ridge year. Boston also tied their all-time June high in 2021 and ranked 3rd warmest last year. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2021	103	0
2	2011	102	0
-	1994	102	0
-	1993	102	0
-	1952	102	0
-	1943	102	0
3	1988	101	0
-	1966	101	0
4	2024	100	0
-	1959	100	0
-	1953	100	0
-	1934	100	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2017	101	0
-	1952	101	0
2	2021	100	0
-	2008	100	0
3	1988	99	0
-	1956	99	0
-	1943	99	0
6	2012	98	0
-	1959	98	0
7	2024	97	0
-	2011	97	0
-	2003	97	0
-	1999	97	0
-	1994	97	0
-	1964	97	0
-	1961	97	0
-	1953	97	0
-	1945	97	0

 

Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024	96	0
-	2020	96	0
-	1944	96	0
2	2023	93	0
-	1995	93	0
-	1988	93	0
-	1983	93	0
3	2021	92	0
-	2003	92	0
-	1979	92	0
-	1963	92	0

 

Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2021	100	0
-	1952	100	0
-	1925	100	0
2	1933	99	0
3	2024	98	0
-	1988	98	0
-	1984	98	0
-	1953	98	0
-	1919	98	0
-	1874	98	0

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It translated to the surface in June 2021 with all-time monthly high temperature records around NYC. EWR ranked #1 and LGA #2.  Caribou tied their all-time June high in 2024 with the record Southeast Ridge year. Boston also tied their all-time June high in 2021 and ranked 3rd warmest last year. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2021	103	0
2	2011	102	0
-	1994	102	0
-	1993	102	0
-	1952	102	0
-	1943	102	0
3	1988	101	0
-	1966	101	0
4	2024	100	0
-	1959	100	0
-	1953	100	0
-	1934	100	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2017	101	0
-	1952	101	0
2	2021	100	0
-	2008	100	0
3	1988	99	0
-	1956	99	0
-	1943	99	0
6	2012	98	0
-	1959	98	0
7	2024	97	0
-	2011	97	0
-	2003	97	0
-	1999	97	0
-	1994	97	0
-	1964	97	0
-	1961	97	0
-	1953	97	0
-	1945	97	0

 

Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024	96	0
-	2020	96	0
-	1944	96	0
2	2023	93	0
-	1995	93	0
-	1988	93	0
-	1983	93	0
3	2021	92	0
-	2003	92	0
-	1979	92	0
-	1963	92	0

 

Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2021	100	0
-	1952	100	0
-	1925	100	0
2	1933	99	0
3	2024	98	0
-	1988	98	0
-	1984	98	0
-	1953	98	0
-	1919	98	0
-	1874	98	0

It looks like more over the top heat, if the heat ridge was strong enough it would have kept the sea breeze away

 

[TheClimateChanger]

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It translated to the surface in June 2021 with all-time monthly high temperature records around NYC. EWR ranked #1 and LGA #2.  Caribou tied their all-time June high in 2024 with the record Southeast Ridge year. Boston also tied their all-time June high in 2021 and ranked 3rd warmest last year. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2021	103	0
2	2011	102	0
-	1994	102	0
-	1993	102	0
-	1952	102	0
-	1943	102	0
3	1988	101	0
-	1966	101	0
4	2024	100	0
-	1959	100	0
-	1953	100	0
-	1934	100	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2017	101	0
-	1952	101	0
2	2021	100	0
-	2008	100	0
3	1988	99	0
-	1956	99	0
-	1943	99	0
6	2012	98	0
-	1959	98	0
7	2024	97	0
-	2011	97	0
-	2003	97	0
-	1999	97	0
-	1994	97	0
-	1964	97	0
-	1961	97	0
-	1953	97	0
-	1945	97	0

 

Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024	96	0
-	2020	96	0
-	1944	96	0
2	2023	93	0
-	1995	93	0
-	1988	93	0
-	1983	93	0
3	2021	92	0
-	2003	92	0
-	1979	92	0
-	1963	92	0

 

Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2021	100	0
-	1952	100	0
-	1925	100	0
2	1933	99	0
3	2024	98	0
-	1988	98	0
-	1984	98	0
-	1953	98	0
-	1919	98	0
-	1874	98	0

I would argue it translated to the surface in 2022 & 2024, as well. If you look at Bradford, PA, useful as one of the more remote and sparsely populated locations, in the Eastern CONUS. We see it had never hit 90F in the month of June dating back to 1958 in the month of June prior to 2022. The monthly record of 89F was tied in 2021. In 2022, it reached 90F twice - including a record-breaking 93F on the 22nd. It reached 90F last June an incredible three times! Additionally, it reached 89F once each in 2022 & 2024 (the former monthly record high). Just an astounding run. I expect more record-breaking heat in the mountains of northern Pennsylvania with this upcoming heat ridge. What was once without precedence is now a yearly occurrence!

I like to think of it as rural effect warming. Certain persons/entities claim warming is being enhanced or caused by a so-called urban heat island effect, but then when you look at the actual numbers, it's often the most remote locations breaking records all the time. So, the urban heating theory makes no sense. If anything, modern technology and siting/exposure standards are such that the UHI signal is less impactful as it was in the past.

[TheClimateChanger]

3 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I would argue it translated to the surface in 2022 & 2024, as well. If you look at Bradford, PA, useful as one of the more remote and sparsely populated locations, in the Eastern CONUS. We see it had never hit 90F in the month of June dating back to 1958 in the month of June prior to 2022. The monthly record of 89F was tied in 2021. In 2022, it reached 90F twice - including a record-breaking 93F on the 22nd. It reached 90F last June an incredible three times! Additionally, it reached 89F once each in 2022 & 2024 (the former monthly record high).

I like to think of it as rural effect warming. Certain persons/entities claim warming is being enhanced or caused by a so-called urban heat island effect, but then when you look at the actual numbers, it's often the most remote locations breaking records all the time. So the urban heating theory makes no sense. If anything, modern technology and siting/exposure standards are such that the UHI signal is less impactful as it was in the past.

You can see the rural effect warming in your data for Caribou, Maine as well. Another remote community near the Canadian border. Look at all those record-breaking June temps in recent years! The complete opposite of what the UHI lie would suggest!

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I would argue it translated to the surface in 2022 & 2024, as well. If you look at Bradford, PA, useful as one of the more remote and sparsely populated locations, in the Eastern CONUS. We see it had never hit 90F in the month of June dating back to 1958 in the month of June prior to 2022. The monthly record of 89F was tied in 2021. In 2022, it reached 90F twice - including a record-breaking 93F on the 22nd. It reached 90F last June an incredible three times! Additionally, it reached 89F once each in 2022 & 2024 (the former monthly record high). Just an astounding run. I expect more record-breaking heat in the mountains of northern Pennsylvania with this upcoming heat ridge. What was once without precedence is now a yearly occurrence!

I like to think of it as rural effect warming. Certain persons/entities claim warming is being enhanced or caused by a so-called urban heat island effect, but then when you look at the actual numbers, it's often the most remote locations breaking records all the time. So, the urban heating theory makes no sense. If anything, modern technology and siting/exposure standards are such that the UHI signal is less impactful as it was in the past.

this reminds of coastal huggers that make it rain at the coast while it snows inland.  That is what this kind of heat reminds me of.

 

[michsnowfreak]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we got a relaxation of the warm spring pattern for a time heading into late May here. Some spots had record highs here earlier this month for a day. But anytime we see all-time record heat like International Falls got back in May, it gives us a preview of what is possible as we approach the summer solstice now. Overall for the CONUS this averaged out as the 2nd warmest spring. So any comfortable temperatures that we have been getting recently is a real gift against such a warm background state.

 

International Falls set the all-time warmest minimum minimum by 4° in May

Time Series Summary for International Falls Area, MN (ThreadEx) - Month of May Highest Minimum Temperature
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2025	70	0
2	1992	66	0
-	1988	66	0
3	1991	64	0
-	1919	64	0
4	2018	63	0
-	2014	63	0
-	1986	63	0
5	2021	62	0
-	2007	62	0
-	1980	62	0
-	1955	62	0
-	1918	62	3

 

The background state as a whole doesn't mean much for individual locations though. It's all about weather patterns. In 2023 they were getting plenty of heat to my south and west while Detroit didn't eclipse 90° all year, something not seen since 1915. This year so far saw a colder than avg Jan, a colder than avg Feb, a much warmer than avg Mar, a warmer than avg Apr, and a colder than avg May. June has been colder than avg so far but big heat lurks. Doesn't look to be long lasting though.

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

The background state as a whole doesn't mean much for individual locations though. It's all about weather patterns. In 2023 they were getting plenty of heat to my south and west while Detroit didn't eclipse 90° all year, something not seen since 1915. This year so far saw a colder than avg Jan, a colder than avg Feb, a much warmer than avg Mar, a warmer than avg Apr, and a colder than avg May. June has been colder than avg so far but big heat lurks. Doesn't look to be long lasting though.

The background state of the CONUS, North America, and the Northern Hemisphere set the parameters of what individual locations experience. This is why even though the coldest temperatures relative to the means last winter were found over the CONUS, it was still the 26th warmest on record since 1895. The most impressive winter monthly departure was last December which ranked as the 4th warmest on record for the CONUS. This spring across the CONUS was the 2nd warmest on record since 1895. 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The background state of the CONUS, North America, and the Northern Hemisphere set the parameters of what individual locations experience. This is why even though the coldest temperatures relative to the means last winter were found over the CONUS, it was still the 26th warmest on record since 1895. The most impressive winter monthly departure was last December which ranked as the 4th warmest on record for the CONUS. This spring across the CONUS was the 2nd warmest on record since 1895. 

I just learned that the latest it ever hit 100 in NYC was on September 7th at 101, it was also the earliest it ever hit 100 in NYC because it happened in 1881 lol.

We all believe in climate change but it doesn't affect every location in the same way and not all times of the year are affected in the same way either and it affects maxes and mins differently too.

It's a much more complex issue than a +1.5 C rise across the board.

 

[michsnowfreak]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The background state of the CONUS, North America, and the Northern Hemisphere set the parameters of what individual locations experience. This is why even though the coldest temperatures relative to the means last winter were found over the CONUS, it was still the 26th warmest on record since 1895. The most impressive winter monthly departure was last December which ranked as the 4th warmest on record for the CONUS. This spring across the CONUS was the 2nd warmest on record since 1895. 

You missed my point. Even if a warm background state is in place it does not guarantee big heat at any individual location. I mean, good for it being 26th warmest winter for the CONUS. It wasn't anywhere near that warm here. And this summer I frankly dont care how many heat records melt away in the southwest, I just worry how much heat makes it up here.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

You missed my point. Even if a warm background state is in place it does not guarantee big heat at any individual location. I mean, good for it being 26th warmest winter for the CONUS. It wasn't anywhere near that warm here. And this summer I frankly dont care how many heat records melt away in the southwest, I just worry how much heat makes it up here.

Yes actually in some places it lowers the chances of big heat since it affects mins much more than it affects maxes plus more rainfall makes it much harder to have record heat in the summer here.

[bluewave]

48 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

You missed my point. Even if a warm background state is in place it does not guarantee big heat at any individual location. I mean, good for it being 26th warmest winter for the CONUS. It wasn't anywhere near that warm here. And this summer I frankly dont care how many heat records melt away in the southwest, I just worry how much heat makes it up here.

The warm background state caused Detroit to have its first 10 year stretch of winters without any averaging under 27°. This is directly related to how warm the CONUS, North America, and the Northern Hemisphere have become. Your local winter warm records have been more impressive than the summer ones.

Nobody in the Great Lakes would ever want to see a winter warm magnitude like 23-24 was during the summer.  It would probably take a megadrought like they have been experiencing out West to pull that one off. But 2016 was still your warmest summer on record for average temperatures.

Summer flash flooding has been a much greater risk than drought closer to the Great Lakes. So this has been preventing such high end maximum temperature heat extremes during the warm season. I am also glad for you guys that a March 2012 level extreme hasn’t happened during July. 

Detroit has had 6 top 11 warmest winters since the global temperature baseline jump in 15-16 . But only 4 top 11 warmest summers since then.

 

Time Series Summary for Detroit Area, MI (ThreadEx) DJF average temperature
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2024-2025	27.5	0
2023-2024	34.9	0
2022-2023	33.4	0
2021-2022	28.0	0
2020-2021	28.5	0
2019-2020	32.5	0
2018-2019	28.9	0
2017-2018	27.4	0
2016-2017	33.0	0
2015-2016	33.5	0

 

[LibertyBell]

37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The warm background state caused Detroit to have its first 10 year stretch of winters without any averaging under 27°. This is directly related to how warm the CONUS, North America, and the Northern Hemisphere have become. Your local winter warm records have been more impressive than the summer ones.

Nobody in the Great Lakes would ever want to see a winter warm magnitude like 23-24 was during the summer.  It would probably take a megadrought like they have been experiencing out West to pull that one off. But 2016 was still your warmest summer on record for average temperatures.

Summer flash flooding has been a much greater risk than drought closer to the Great Lakes. So this has been preventing such high end maximum temperature heat extremes during the warm season. I am also glad for you guys that a March 2012 level extreme hasn’t happened during July. 

Detroit has had 6 top 11 warmest winters since the global temperature baseline jump in 15-16 . But only 4 top 11 warmest summers since then.

 

Time Series Summary for Detroit Area, MI (ThreadEx) DJF average temperature
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2024-2025	27.5	0
2023-2024	34.9	0
2022-2023	33.4	0
2021-2022	28.0	0
2020-2021	28.5	0
2019-2020	32.5	0
2018-2019	28.9	0
2017-2018	27.4	0
2016-2017	33.0	0
2015-2016	33.5	0

 

Yes this is why our summer heat hasn't been as extreme as it was during the 1930s-1950s and during the 1990s either.

 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The warm background state caused Detroit to have its first 10 year stretch of winters without any averaging under 27°. This is directly related to how warm the CONUS, North America, and the Northern Hemisphere have become. Your local winter warm records have been more impressive than the summer ones.

Nobody in the Great Lakes would ever want to see a winter warm magnitude like 23-24 was during the summer.  It would probably take a megadrought like they have been experiencing out West to pull that one off. But 2016 was still your warmest summer on record for average temperatures.

Summer flash flooding has been a much greater risk than drought closer to the Great Lakes. So this has been preventing such high end maximum temperature heat extremes during the warm season. I am also glad for you guys that a March 2012 level extreme hasn’t happened during July. 

Detroit has had 6 top 11 warmest winters since the global temperature baseline jump in 15-16 . But only 4 top 11 warmest summers since then.

 

Time Series Summary for Detroit Area, MI (ThreadEx) DJF average temperature
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2024-2025	27.5	0
2023-2024	34.9	0
2022-2023	33.4	0
2021-2022	28.0	0
2020-2021	28.5	0
2019-2020	32.5	0
2018-2019	28.9	0
2017-2018	27.4	0
2016-2017	33.0	0
2015-2016	33.5	0

 

Im well aware of the mean temps in the warm stretch the last decade. I was wondering why you picked 27°, but i noticed in the 1948-1958 stretch the coldest winter was 26.9° lol. I look at every winter in great detail, and the past 10 years is no exception. We've had some cold months and arctic blasts, but not enough solid 3-month cold to get a big DJF temp departure (2024-25, 2021-22, & 2017-18 were slightly colder than avg). Fortunately, snowfall hasn't been anywhere NEAR a 10 year low. Much like snowfall in winter being the most important metric for me, max temps are the most important of summer. So regardless of what the summer mean temp ends up, Im more concerned with how many hot days we have vs mild muggy nights. We pretty much made it past mid June without any hot muggy weather, so I consider that a win. Todays the first real muggy day. Still doesn't mean im excited about the coming heatwave. 

Regarding magnitude of anomalies, summer departures will never come CLOSE to a winter departure in either extreme, so its no comparison. We had a temp departure of -14.5° in Feb 2015. Meanwhile, July 2011 (hottest on record) was +5.2°.