2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, FPizz said:

We went through a great stretch that most living in our area never experienced and might never again. Some said that was the new norm too.  

CC probably did play a role in that, too....I am in agreement with the idea that it fosters greaters variability with the overall trend line pointed downward, but that doesn't mean that you have to go robocop on people to tie it to every missed opportunity for a snowstorm. There have always been misses and rough stretches during which the misses far outnumbered the hits.

[brooklynwx99]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

CC probably did play a role in that, too....I am in agreement with the idea that it fosters greaters variability with the overall trend line pointed downward, but that doesn't mean that you have to go robocop on people to tie it to every missed opportunity for a snowstorm. There have always been misses and rough stretches during which the misses far outnumbered the hits.

there was a span of time where pretty much every KU pattern hit from like 2016 through 2021, and people got spoiled and thought that would continue... I am one of those people and have tried to remove that bias. it just happened so often that it was easy to assume that kind of loaded WB -NAO pattern would give a 75-90% hit rate - in reality it's much lower

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

there was a span of time where pretty much every KU pattern hit from like 2016 through 2021, and people got spoiled and thought that would continue... I am one of those people and have tried to remove that bias. it just happened so often that it was easy to assume that kind of loaded WB -NAO pattern would give a 75-90% hit rate - in reality it's much lower

It goes both ways...there are plenty of deniers, too....so I get why some feel the need to overcompensate on the other end of the spectrum, but we need to all make a concerted effort to be a bit more moderate or else objectivity becomes compromised.

[LibertyBell]

36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

At the end of the day, the snow drought is a product of CC enhancing what already would have been a very hostile multidecadal base state. I don't know what is unreasonable about that...jesus, CC is so politicized that its now just like actual politics in that everyone is so polarized that its the few moderates that bare the brunt of the cross fire.

it's very similar to the late 80s

we even had big southern snowstorms in 1988-89 and 1989-90 just like we did last winter

 

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

there was a span of time where pretty much every KU pattern hit from like 2016 through 2021, and people got spoiled and thought that would continue... I am one of those people and have tried to remove that bias. it just happened so often that it was easy to assume that kind of loaded WB -NAO pattern would give a 75-90% hit rate - in reality it's much lower

it was even longer than that, 2002-03 through 2004-05 and 2009-10 through 2014-15 too

 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

At the end of the day, the snow drought is a product of CC enhancing what already would have been a very hostile multidecadal base state. I don't know what is unreasonable about that...jesus, CC is so politicized that its now just like actual politics in that everyone is so polarized that its the few moderates that bare the brunt of the cross fire.

I know you guys concentrate on big storms, but I actually have noticed that sometimes a wetter climate does lead to MORE snow in northern climates than it wouldve seemingly produced in the past during a similarly hostile pattern/base state.

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I know you guys concentrate on big storms, but I actually have noticed that sometimes a wetter climate does lead to MORE snow in northern climates than it wouldve seemingly produced in the past during a similarly hostile pattern/base state.

Usually in the form of one big storm.

It has juiced up the atmosphere, which is why 2015-16 was snowier than 1982-83 although it was warmer too.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I know you guys concentrate on big storms, but I actually have noticed that sometimes a wetter climate does lead to MORE snow in northern climates than it wouldve seemingly produced in the past during a similarly hostile pattern/base state.

Yea, I think that is applicable more for your area through the LES belts and into NNE....but I do agree with Chris that CC maybe starting to infringe on SNE snowfall climo....at least a portion of SNE, anyway. That said, we are simply in a hostile pattern for SNE that is les so for your area over to NNE.

[michsnowfreak]

37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I think that is applicable more for your area through the LES belts and into NNE....but I do agree with Chris that CC maybe starting to infringe on SNE snowfall climo....at least a portion of SNE, anyway. That said, we are simply in a hostile pattern for SNE that is les so for your area over to NNE.

I do understand that. But again I think that the hostile pattern is way overlooked by some. It may cause some to eat words when a pattern is favorable for SNE and provides some juicy noreasters

[bluewave]

19 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It was off the west coast when the storm took place, which is all that matters. Yes, the jet was a factor, but so isn't the poor positioning of the ridge. I don't know why you inexoprably seek agreement on a 100% CC attribution for everything.

My pointing out a particular repeating pattern over time with our storm tracks leading to less snow is more about pattern recognition on my part. I use it in real time to point out that the models have been too snowy beyond 5 days. This has lead to the famous modeled snowstorm always being a week a way. Which is due to the models underestimating the influence of the Pacific Jet longer range. Adding extra warmth to the system in multiple locations causes shifts in the storm tracks. So we need to acknowledge this as a forecast aid. 

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I think that is applicable more for your area through the LES belts and into NNE....but I do agree with Chris that CC maybe starting to infringe on SNE snowfall climo....at least a portion of SNE, anyway. That said, we are simply in a hostile pattern for SNE that is les so for your area over to NNE.

paradoxically, CC may cause ocean effect snow to increase for the Cape and Islands?

[LibertyBell]

31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

My pointing out a particular repeating pattern over time with our storm tracks leading to less snow is more about pattern recognition on my part. I use it in real time to point out that the models have been too snowy beyond 5 days. This has lead to the famous modeled snowstorm always being a week a way. Which is due to the models underestimating the influence of the Pacific Jet longer range. Adding extra warmth to the system in multiple locations causes shifts in the storm tracks. So we need to acknowledge this as a forecast aid. 

interestingly, in winters like 1993-94. 1995-96 and 2004-05 the models underdid snowfall.

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I do understand that. But again I think that the hostile pattern is way overlooked by some. It may cause some to eat words when a pattern is favorable for SNE and provides some juicy noreasters

what you're describing sounds a lot like 2004-05 that was the famous Messenger (RIP) winter when everything trended favorably for coastal snowstorms.

 

[bluewave]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

interestingly, in winters like 1993-94 and 2004-05 the models underdid snowfall.

Yes, when we have great winter patterns in place the snowstorms can often overperferform relative to longer range model forecasts. But since February 2022 most of the snowstorms have been in the long range only to disappear once the models catch onto how strong the Pacific Jet is under 120 hrs. So in effect these models aren’t well suited for such a fast Pacific Flow regime. Our only two colder and snowier months in the 2020s have been February 2021 and January 2022.