2025-2026 ENSO

[bluewave]

24 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's only a matter of time before hurricanes will start forming in the subtropics and start threatening the northeast. 

New England has been very lucky since their last Hurricane Bob way back in 1991. This has been related to the 500 mb heights rising faster north and east of New England relative to the Gulf Coast.

The last major U.S. hurricane major landfall north of Jacksonville occurred in 1996. This is a new record for the U.S. Coastline relative to the total U.S. major landfalling hurricanes over a 30 year period.

It’s part of the reason that there have been so many high impact major landfalling hurricanes in and around the Gulf Coast recently. Even Sandy was driven west into SNJ near ACY and avoided a New England landfall. This is why it was so damaging around the NY Bight.

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html

[GaWx]

 The RONI is back down to La Niña:

 

[snowman19]

Yep...left that out.

Everything was primed for -AO/-NAO high latitude blocking that winter. Textbook. Solar minimum, -QBO, Modoki El Niño, Atlantic “tripole”…..

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

It was a strong el nino, so you really can't prevent the warm-ups in between. Although, we did get consistent cold and snowstorms in February. (But the winter ended abruptly, as the snow stopped in Baltimore and DC in mid-February, and north of Baltimore by the beginning of March.) However, 2009-10 is the absolute best case for a strong el nino. It's like the modern day 1957-58 (that one also had warm-ups in between storms). Everyone got a good winter, with the exception of the PNW (the Vancouver Olympics were affected by record warmth and a lack of snow) and maybe the Midwest (ask @michsnowfreak, strong el ninos are never good there).

New England didn't get a great winter.

[Torch Tiger]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

New England didn't get a great winter.

wasn't terrible, but below mid

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I think that as long as we keep repeating this Summer pattern of +AO, that has been so common since 2013, the Winter NAO will have a tendency to positive, and probably PNA-negative, WPO-positive as well. Big +AO on models through the 2nd week of June. This is the same pattern as the last 12 years:

[snowman19]

I think that as long as we keep repeating this Summer pattern of +AO, that has been so common since 2013, the Winter NAO will have a tendency to positive, and probably PNA-negative, WPO-positive as well. Big +AO on models through the 2nd week of June. This is the same pattern as the last 12 years:

Have you found any correlation between cold-ENSO and the QBO? I’ve read a few studies that correlate +QBO/cold-ENSO to poleward Aleutian ridging and -QBO/cold-ENSO to a flat, equatorial Aleutian ridge

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Have you found any correlation between cold-ENSO and the QBO? I’ve read a few studies that correlate +QBO/cold-ENSO to poleward Aleutian ridging and -QBO/cold-ENSO to a flat, equatorial Aleutian ridge

+QBO and cold-ENSO strongly favor cold Stratosphere 10mb. I came up with the ENSO/QBO correlation in 2008 and it has worked almost every Winter since.. but the Stratosphere doesn't always translate to 500mb/the surface. Last Winter is a good example, it was record breaking +QBO at 50mb I think, and it was one of the coldest Nov-Feb Stratosphere's on record. March 10mb actually has a near 0 correlation to the QBO state, and March ended up having a very warm Stratosphere. That Winter was pretty uniform in the Stratosphere, as far as ENSO/QBO goes. The Winter before was Strong El Nino/-QBO and we did have 4 Winter Stratosphere warmings (didn't quite make it to the surface that much though). 

There has been some tendency for -QBO and negative-ENSO to have cold December's, but we don't really have enough data to make that a strong conclusion.. I just remember on these boards in 2005 we were using the 1989 analog because of good -QBO/cold-ENSO and it worked out really well. 

Remember QBO is a Stratosphere index, 30,000+ feet up, so to correlate it with things like the Pacific Jet is hard because topographic features, and pressure patterns, effect the surface patterns more. Something like Asian Mountain Torque I would say is more important. 

Here's the cold season QBO-500mb correlation... nothing goes over 0.3 and the anomalies are spotty everywhere.. pretty random. I think it might work with other factors though.  HM is really good at describing the QBO interacting to become a surface variable. 

I mean.. I don't know.. this cold season-QBO correlation (below) isn't that bad in regard to how the index is measured: Goes with a +QBO favoring Stratosphere coolings and eventual +AO. Look at how it interacts with the mountains in Asia (low pressure above the Himalayas, high pressure below)

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Regarding Arctic ice melt.. I would say until we break past previous trend line (lower than all time record, by now actually much lower), we are going to be stuck in this -PNA/+NAO Wintertime pattern. Call it my intuition, but there seems to be a bit of a see-saw between melting the arctic ice and high latitude blocking in the cold season.  Not going lower has amped a ridge in the eastern US, Europe, and Japan. 

[bluewave]

23 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The RONI is back down to La Niña:

 

Yeah, this spring has featured the same very strong La Niña background 500mb pattern which has dominated since around 2019. Pretty much being driven by the WPAC warm pool and 500m ridge pattern. Notice how amplified the Aleutian Ridge has been along with the Southeast or Western Atlantic Ridge. We can also see the Aleutian Ridge continuing to extend back very close to Japan. This is the 2n EOF of the -PDO which has been at record levels since 2019. 

Spring 2025 similar to the pattern since 2019

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Daily PNA just hit the lowest since July 2017.. almost 8 years. And we even had a +600dm block in December 2021. 

These are the lowest daily readings since 2017:

2025	5	20	-2.02187
2025	5	21	-2.16265
2024	5	21	-1.69923
2024	5	22	-1.69731
2023	5	29	-1.57961
2023	3	28	-1.65316
2023	3	29	-1.54037
2022	11	30	-1.6506
2022	12	1	-1.76059
2022	12	2	-1.67042
2021	12	22	-1.5209
2021	12	23	-1.86403
2021	12	24	-2.08356
2021	12	25	-1.95318
2021	12	26	-1.76863
2021	12	27	-1.73472
2021	12	28	-1.6659
2021	9	30	-1.88225
2021	5	17	-1.68592
2021	5	18	-2.00071
2021	5	19	-1.88333
2021	5	20	-1.82705
2021	5	21	-1.69829
2021	5	22	-1.58023
2020	3	22	-1.64837
2020	3	23	-1.85732
2020	3	24	-1.79302
2020	3	25	-1.88764
2020	3	26	-1.93435
2020	3	27	-1.82528
2020	3	28	-1.73653
2020	3	29	-1.57907
2019	10	7	-1.58045
2019	10	8	-1.8704
2019	10	9	-1.96813
2019	10	10	-1.69351

[michsnowfreak]

On 5/25/2025 at 8:05 AM, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

It was a strong el nino, so you really can't prevent the warm-ups in between. Although, we did get consistent cold and snowstorms in February. (But the winter ended abruptly, as the snow stopped in Baltimore and DC in mid-February, and north of Baltimore by the beginning of March.) However, 2009-10 is the absolute best case for a strong el nino. It's like the modern day 1957-58 (that one also had warm-ups in between storms). Everyone got a good winter, with the exception of the PNW (the Vancouver Olympics were affected by record warmth and a lack of snow) and maybe the Midwest (ask @michsnowfreak, strong el ninos are never good there).

2009-10 was decent here. Excellent February. Season snowfall was 46.1" imby and 43.7" at DTW, but 27" of that fell in Feb. Shut off, as you said, in March. In fact, Feb 27, 2010 ties w/ 1946 for earliest last measurable snow on record, though the snowpack lasted into the first third or so of March. Definitely about as cold a winter as you'll see in a strong nino. But I know it was a shitty winter in Toronto and I think Maine.

The main thing about 2009-10 getting forgotten here is that it was basically an average snow season in a streak of great winters. The seasonal snowfall at DTW for 2007-08 thru 2010-11 was 71.7", 65.7", 43.7", 69.1".

Now 1957-58? Just gross. It's the 9th least snowy winter on record (18.0"). Basically a mild wet December and a cold dry Jan/Feb. Mid Feb was bitterly cold and white, but the peak snow depth all winter (mid Feb) was 3". Also, 1957-58 holds the distinction of being the only winter in the entire climate record to not have a 24-hr snowfall of 2"+. There were several in the 1.7-1.9" range.

[qg_omega]

On 5/25/2025 at 8:28 AM, GaWx said:

 The RONI is back down to La Niña:

 

Anomalies around the UK, wow 

[bluewave]

16 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Anomalies around the UK, wow 

Very strong recent south based -NAO especially at 500mb warming the seas below with clear skies and strong high pressure. 
 

https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/

 

[snowman19]

Yeah, this spring has featured the same very strong La Niña background 500mb pattern which has dominated since around 2019. Pretty much being driven by the WPAC warm pool and 500m ridge pattern. Notice how amplified the Aleutian Ridge has been along with the Southeast or Western Atlantic Ridge. We can also see the Aleutian Ridge continuing to extend back very close to Japan. This is the 2n EOF of the -PDO which has been at record levels since 2019. 
Spring 2025 similar to the pattern since 2019

 

 

We have been stuck in a semi-permanent, default La Niña pattern for years now, even when we’ve had an El Niño, the background Niña state has still been there. It appears (at least so far) that we are following the exact same pattern again this year….

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

We have been stuck in a semi-permanent, default La Niña pattern for years now, even when we’ve had an El Niño, the background Niña state has still been there. It appears (at least so far) that we are following the exact same pattern again this year….

I know that people around here don’t like all the milder winters, but we may need a really strong El Niño like 15-16 to bring back at least some semblance of a STJ. Weak El Niños or warm neutrals such as 18-19 and 19-20 have been struggling against the La Niña background state.

The primary driver has been the WPAC warm pool. Would much rather take my chances getting a very strong to super El Niño as long as the storm track is close to the benchmark. Really don’t care at this point if it’s near 60° before or after the storms or how long the snow stays on the ground. Just want to see some great snowstorms again. 

But as we saw in 23-24, the La Niña background combined with the very strong El Niño to pull the forcing too far west in the Pacific near the Maritime Continent. So really not sure if even a very strong El Niño can shift the marine heatwaves around which have been associated with the record WPAC warm pool. 

There is very little we can do from Philly to south coastal side Boston when the Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet is so strong. With Great Lakes cutters, I-95 to I-84 huggers, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. The default position becomes milder winters with below to well below normal snowfall.

Even the marginally colder winter this year was still around 40° near the coast on the days that .25 or more of precipitation fell. 

Perhaps, we can score a decent MJO 8 like we last saw in January 22 in the coming winters. Even one good month can make the winter passable. But we have seen in recent winters how we haven’t been able to get a clean MJO 8 response due to the competing marine heatwaves and multiple areas of forcing. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I know that people around here don’t like all the milder winters, but we may need a really strong El Niño like 15-16 to bring back at least some semblance of a STJ. Weak El Niños or warm neutrals such as 18-19 and 19-20 have been struggling against the La Niña background state.

The primary driver has been the WPAC warm pool. Would much rather take my chances getting a very strong to super El Niño as long as the storm track is close to the benchmark. Really don’t care at this point if it’s near 60° before or after the storms or how long the snow stays on the ground. Just want to see some great snowstorms again. 

But as we saw in 23-24, the La Niña background combined with the very strong El Niño to pull the forcing too far west in the Pacific near the Maritime Continent. So really not sure if even a very strong El Niño can shift the marine heatwaves around which have been associated with the record WPAC warm pool. 

There is very little we can do from Philly to south coastal side Boston when the Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet is so strong. With Great Lakes cutters, I-95 to I-84 huggers, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. The default position becomes milder winters with below to well below normal snowfall.

Even the marginally colder winter this year was still around 40° near the coast on the days that .25 or more of precipitation fell. 

Perhaps, we can score a decent MJO 8 like we last saw in January 22 in the coming winters. Even one good month can make the winter passable. But we have seen in recent winters how we haven’t been able to get a clean MJO 8 response due to the competing marine heatwaves and multiple areas of forcing. 

I think within a few years a more moderate El Nino could suffice, somewhere in between those two extremes....I am sure CC is enhancing this pattern, but its not entirely unprecedented, as the potent 1972-1973 El Nino also featured a great deal of MC forcing due to the Pacific cold phase. That ended later in the decade with the Pacific phase flip and a couple of meager warm ENSO events.

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I know that people around here don’t like all the milder winters, but we may need a really strong El Niño like 15-16 to bring back at least some semblance of a STJ. Weak El Niños or warm neutrals such as 18-19 and 19-20 have been struggling against the La Niña background state.

The primary driver has been the WPAC warm pool. Would much rather take my chances getting a very strong to super El Niño as long as the storm track is close to the benchmark. Really don’t care at this point if it’s near 60° before or after the storms or how long the snow stays on the ground. Just want to see some great snowstorms again. 

But as we saw in 23-24, the La Niña background combined with the very strong El Niño to pull the forcing too far west in the Pacific near the Maritime Continent. So really not sure if even a very strong El Niño can shift the marine heatwaves around which have been associated with the record WPAC warm pool. 

There is very little we can do from Philly to south coastal side Boston when the Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet is so strong. With Great Lakes cutters, I-95 to I-84 huggers, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. The default position becomes milder winters with below to well below normal snowfall.

Even the marginally colder winter this year was still around 40° near the coast on the days that .25 or more of precipitation fell. 

Perhaps, we can score a decent MJO 8 like we last saw in January 22 in the coming winters. Even one good month can make the winter passable. But we have seen in recent winters how we haven’t been able to get a clean MJO 8 response due to the competing marine heatwaves and multiple areas of forcing. 

We had a strong/super El Nino just 2 years ago and wasn't able to break it. So what you would be suggesting is a higher than 2015/16 scenario given the WPAC has still warmed during that time frame which would mean an ONI above ~2.6C probably closer to 3C consistently over several months to reset the system?

Honestly I feel that is not reasonable if 2 El Nino, as strong as what we have seen one being nearly the strongest we have physically recorded, can not cool the WPAC having a stronger one won't change that fact. I feel we need to give it time to see how this all plays out and feel it is too early to draw conclusions on something to say permanence has set in. 

Im not trying to play a gotcha moment if it does in fact change up over the next few years to decade or stays exactly the same. Would rather let it play out and get better understandings versus making such claims one way or the other. It would be awfully weird to make these claims that things have changed for the worst and then we get another 5-10 year block of crushing snows again.

[GaWx]

33 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

We had a strong/super El Nino just 2 years ago and wasn't able to break it. So what you would be suggesting is a higher than 2015/16 scenario given the WPAC has still warmed during that time frame which would mean an ONI above ~2.6C probably closer to 3C consistently over several months to reset the system?

Honestly I feel that is not reasonable if 2 El Nino, as strong as what we have seen one being nearly the strongest we have physically recorded, can not cool the WPAC having a stronger one won't change that fact. I feel we need to give it time to see how this all plays out and feel it is too early to draw conclusions on something to say permanence has set in. 

Im not trying to play a gotcha moment if it does in fact change up over the next few years to decade or stays exactly the same. Would rather let it play out and get better understandings versus making such claims one way or the other. It would be awfully weird to make these claims that things have changed for the worst and then we get another 5-10 year block of crushing snows again.

Based on RONI, 2023-4’s peak was only a borderline moderate/strong +1.50 (OND) vs 2015-6’s super RONI peak of +2.038. Even 2009-10’s peak was slightly stronger with +1.56. 2023-24’s DJF RONI then fell to just +1.21.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

[so_whats_happening]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Based on RONI, 2023-4’s peak was only a borderline moderate/strong +1.50 (OND) vs 2015-6’s super RONI peak of +2.038. Even 2009-10’s peak was slightly stronger with +1.56. 2023-24’s DJF RONI then fell to just +1.21.

RONI peaked in 2015/16 NDJ of 2.38. ONI of ~2.6

RONI peaked in 1997/98 SON also at 2.38. ONI of ~2.4

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

Im personally still not on the RONI bandwagon as being a reasonable indicator of what will occur but to each their own. This type of atmospheric pattern in 2023/24 was closer to the strong/super Ninos even with the RONI showing barely strong status. I included 1972/73 as that was the last deeply -PDO/ +ENSO we experienced of course it is apples to oranges as nearly 50 years of oceanic warming have changed things up a bit.

[so_whats_happening]

While oceanic temps have definitely increased probably the most drastic of changes has been in the Arctic over the last 50 years I feel this probably is the biggest reason we have been having issues with pattern semblance over the last decade or two, more notably. It may very well be the reason for such changes to the PDO state but im not ready to make those accusations or conclusions.

Over the last 5 years the Antarctic has suffered rather drastic changes to the ice sheet I wonder if we start seeing similar results within the southern hemisphere as we have seen in the northern with the idea of permanence taking shape.

[snowman19]

We had a strong/super El Nino just 2 years ago and wasn't able to break it. So what you would be suggesting is a higher than 2015/16 scenario given the WPAC has still warmed during that time frame which would mean an ONI above ~2.6C probably closer to 3C consistently over several months to reset the system?
Honestly I feel that is not reasonable if 2 El Nino, as strong as what we have seen one being nearly the strongest we have physically recorded, can not cool the WPAC having a stronger one won't change that fact. I feel we need to give it time to see how this all plays out and feel it is too early to draw conclusions on something to say permanence has set in. 
Im not trying to play a gotcha moment if it does in fact change up over the next few years to decade or stays exactly the same. Would rather let it play out and get better understandings versus making such claims one way or the other. It would be awfully weird to make these claims that things have changed for the worst and then we get another 5-10 year block of crushing snows again.

I made the huge mistake of thinking that Nino 2 years ago was actually going to behave like an El Niño. Boy was that thought wrong…