Kmlwx Posted May 31 Author Share Posted May 31 Looking ahead: CIPS is suggesting some severe threat starting up by the 156hr timeframe and extending into the longer range as well. There's an especially strong signal for 168hr long range panel from the 0z images. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 22 hours ago, Chinook said: so, no tornadoes on SPC storm reports? I did not see any storm related calls in our 911 system from the Montgomery County TOR or SVR cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted Tuesday at 12:34 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 12:34 PM CIPS has a bit of a signature for severe around 120hr. One thing I've seen relatively consistently this spring so far is analogs from 1998 being peppered into the mix. That was a really robust spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted Wednesday at 06:51 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:51 PM On 6/4/2024 at 2:44 PM, George BM said: Fun times 16 years ago this moment. Let's do this again soon. 17 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted Wednesday at 06:58 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 06:58 PM I remember being in 6th period newspaper and itching to go home (I lived right through the woods). Literally sprinted (also had to take a leak because the bathrooms at school sucked LOL) and made it home with just enough time to track the line rolling in. I remember seeing tons of tree debris flying through the air. As bad as 6/4/2008 was - I think it was outclassed by the 2012 derecho pretty easily. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted Wednesday at 07:05 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 07:05 PM Also...that was a remarkable stretch. I know with the addition of "enhanced" things are a bit harder to come by for moderate risks now...BUT we had moderate risks in 2008 on June 4, 10, 16. Pretty absurd for this region for a single month. 2012 was another one of course. Many remember the derecho - but we often forget about the TOR-driven moderate risk on June 1, 2012. We had a uber mini 15% hatched zone right over the DC area for tornado. We definitely seem to have periods when we go on "runs" for extreme weather types. I'm sure it's linked to overall large-scale patterns persisting for more than just a few days. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Wednesday at 09:24 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:24 PM 2 hours ago, Kmlwx said: Also...that was a remarkable stretch. I know with the addition of "enhanced" things are a bit harder to come by for moderate risks now...BUT we had moderate risks in 2008 on June 4, 10, 16. Pretty absurd for this region for a single month. 2012 was another one of course. Many remember the derecho - but we often forget about the TOR-driven moderate risk on June 1, 2012. We had a uber mini 15% hatched zone right over the DC area for tornado. We definitely seem to have periods when we go on "runs" for extreme weather types. I'm sure it's linked to overall large-scale patterns persisting for more than just a few days. If you read the SPC convective outlooks leading up to that event, you will notice several interesting things: 1.) SPC went 30% probabilistic on D3. That's anomalous. 2.) The Day 3 and Day 2 mentioned negative tilted upper low. . .in June. Red flag that we're dealing with a potent event. 3.) We closed well on this event: dynamics and instability. Had we had even an hour or two of legitimate, full sun then it would've been a top 10 tornado day in this region. To me, that event is the benchmark for non-tropical tornado days in these parts. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Friday at 06:02 AM Share Posted Friday at 06:02 AM Sneaky wind threat on Saturday? Its a MRGL on the new day 2... but its all we've got for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted Friday at 12:14 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 12:14 PM CIPS is *lit* at the 72hr frame. It even has June 1, 2012 in the analogs 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted Friday at 03:01 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 03:01 PM 2 hours ago, Kmlwx said: CIPS is *lit* at the 72hr frame. It even has June 1, 2012 in the analogs I'm actually sort of intrigued at Sunday evening. The timing seems a bit off and it's not clear that areas (especially NE of the Potomac) will be unstable enough - but 12z NAM nest really fires a lot of storms mainly west and south of the metros. It would align well with CIPS honking - but not sure there's a ton of support. Good indication of missing ingredients. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted Friday at 04:29 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 04:29 PM FWIW - HRRR has been awful at initializing the storms to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted Friday at 09:28 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:28 PM Looked good for a bit. This was back about 15 mins ago 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago Hmmm... let's try again tomorrow? 15 wind and 5 tor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago Afternoon day 2 disco from SPC ..South to Lower Mid-Atlantic States... Boundary-layer heating is anticipated along the Atlantic Coastal Plain and adjacent Piedmont should support MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. Multiple embedded MCVs will support at least scattered afternoon storms developing near the higher terrain and spreading east towards the coast. Enhanced mid-level westerlies will support transient/weak updraft rotation and multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail are likely. A couple of tornadoes are also possible in the Lower Mid-Atlantic along the primary differential heating corridor, where low-level shear may be adequate ahead of a central Appalachians MCV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 5/5/15 on morning day 1 0600Z outlook from SPC (15 hail in the southern part of the LWX CWA into the Wakefield CWA) ..Portions of the Mid Atlantic... By early afternoon, thunderstorms should increase in both coverage and intensity ahead of a weak surface low and associated weak mid-level impulse. These storms will move into an airmass characterized by mid to upper 70s F temperatures and 70 F dewpoints, overspread by modest mid-level lapse rates (resulting in over 1500 J/kg MLCAPE). Considerable veering with height will support elongated hodographs with appreciable low-level curvature, with multicells and supercells the expected storm mode. Damaging gusts and large hail may accompany the stronger storms. A few tornadoes may occur with any supercells that interact with a baroclinic boundary across eastern VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 1300z SPC OTLK continues mention of a few tornadoes ...Mid Atlantic Region... A shortwave trough currently over OH will track eastward today, with large-scale ascent overspreading the Mid-Atlantic states by afternoon. A moist surface air mass is present across much of VA/MD/NC and vicinity with dewpoints in the upper 60s. Persistent clouds and weak mid-level lapse rates will limit destabilization. However, it appears likely that storms will develop off the Blue Ridge by mid afternoon and spread eastward toward the coast. Forecast soundings show sufficient low and deep layer shear for supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Hmmm FXUS61 KLWX 081335 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 935 AM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will slowly settle southward toward the area through today, then meander across the Mid-Atlantic through Monday. A stronger cold front will cross the area on Tuesday night, followed by high pressure Wednesday and Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Next shortwave trough and accompanying area of low pressure will track ewd from eastern Ohio and across Pennsylvania this afternoon providing ample lift for showers and thunderstorms in a warm, humid, and unstable air mass. As of this morning, the wavy stalled front is located generally from Staunton to the Northern Neck. Cloudy and showery conditions continue north of this boundary this morning, with a few embedded heavier showers ongoing in central VA. This activity is expected to slowly diminish by early afternoon as the warm front lifts north into our area. Where the front ultimately stalls will be important for the severe/flood threat. The most unstable airmass is likely to be south of US-50. The early 12Z guidance looks to have the warm front along the Potomac River, possibly some of it stretches up into MD just south of I-70. The greater SRH will be along and east of the boundary, though deep-layer shear of 35-45 knots looks to be plentiful across most of the area. Will be looking to see where these gradients ultimately set up as that will point to the corridor of most likely severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Warm front must be nearby me... sun and breaks in the clouds here and increasingly humid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago "Multiple rounds of scattered severe thunderstorms look to push across the region this afternoon and evening (between 2-9pm) as a warm front lifts through. The primary threat with storms will be damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall. An isolated tornado or two is possible mainly south & east of DC. Have a way to get warning via phone, tv, or computer. #MDwx #VAwx #WVwx #DCwx" From LWX Facebook page posted an hour ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago https://x.com/capitalweather/status/1931724389088710750 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago I still don't know what to make of this setup. Few CAMs have a handle on the band of showers currently pushing southwest to northeast across the area. The ones that do have these showers don't really do a whole with convection lot later today. The HRRR looks more interesting, but it isn't handling the current stuff well, and while its reflectivity looks good later, there isn't much instability. The shear (both deep layer and low level) is intriguing for sure, but I wonder if it's just going to be too stable for much of the area to really have a threat. My best guess is that any severe threat stays south and west of a Winchester to Culpeper to Quantico line, but we'll see how temperatures evolve for the DC-Baltimore corridor. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Tornado Warning Stafford county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Tornado Warning for Stafford VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, southmdwatcher said: Tornado Warning for Stafford VA BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1245 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Central Stafford County in northern Virginia... * Until 115 PM EDT. * At 1245 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Stafford, moving northeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Stafford around 1250 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Ramoth, Widewater, Aquia, Roseville, Glendie, Garrisonville, Arkendale, Ruby, and Cherry Hill. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3843 7758 3858 7745 3852 7737 3850 7730 3855 7728 3856 7726 3858 7726 3859 7725 3856 7724 3856 7722 3855 7724 3849 7728 3847 7728 3848 7727 3845 7728 3845 7726 3837 7754 TIME...MOT...LOC 1645Z 233DEG 20KT 3843 7752 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx12 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Special Marine Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1247 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Special Marine Warning for... Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD... * Until 215 PM EDT. * At 1247 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing waterspouts was located 8 nm west of Aquia Creek, moving northeast at 15 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, yoda said: BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1245 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Central Stafford County in northern Virginia... * Until 115 PM EDT. * At 1245 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Stafford, moving northeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Stafford around 1250 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Ramoth, Widewater, Aquia, Roseville, Glendie, Garrisonville, Arkendale, Ruby, and Cherry Hill. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3843 7758 3858 7745 3852 7737 3850 7730 3855 7728 3856 7726 3858 7726 3859 7725 3856 7724 3856 7722 3855 7724 3849 7728 3847 7728 3848 7727 3845 7728 3845 7726 3837 7754 TIME...MOT...LOC 1645Z 233DEG 20KT 3843 7752 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN The velocity signature showed up right over my house, but everything was, and still is very calm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Looks like decent rotation west of Stafford on Radarscope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Looks like decent rotation west of Stafford on Radarscope Decent is subjective, but there is rotation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago MCD up... 60% chance of Watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 15 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said: The velocity signature showed up right over my house, but everything was, and still is very calm. Was any rotation, or rising motion visible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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