2025 Severe Weather General Discussion

[Kmlwx]

Looking ahead: 

CIPS is suggesting some severe threat starting up by the 156hr timeframe and extending into the longer range as well. There's an especially strong signal for 168hr long range panel from the 0z images. 

[Eskimo Joe]

22 hours ago, Chinook said:

so, no tornadoes on SPC storm reports?

I did not see any storm related calls in our 911 system from the Montgomery County TOR or SVR cells. 

[Kmlwx]

CIPS has a bit of a signature for severe around 120hr. 

One thing I've seen relatively consistently this spring so far is analogs from 1998 being peppered into the mix. That was a really robust spring. 

[George BM]

On 6/4/2024 at 2:44 PM, George BM said:

Fun times 16 years ago this moment.

Let's do this again soon.

17 years ago.

[Kmlwx]

I remember being in 6th period newspaper and itching to go home (I lived right through the woods). Literally sprinted (also had to take a leak because the bathrooms at school sucked LOL) and made it home with just enough time to track the line rolling in. I remember seeing tons of tree debris flying through the air. As bad as 6/4/2008 was - I think it was outclassed by the 2012  derecho pretty easily. 

[Kmlwx]

Also...that was a remarkable stretch. I know with the addition of "enhanced" things are a bit harder to come by for moderate risks now...BUT we had moderate risks in 2008 on June 4, 10, 16. Pretty absurd for this region for a single month. 

2012 was another one of course. Many remember the derecho - but we often forget about the TOR-driven moderate risk on June 1, 2012. We had a uber mini 15% hatched zone right over the DC area for tornado. 

We definitely seem to have periods when we go on "runs" for extreme weather types. I'm sure it's linked to overall large-scale patterns persisting for more than just a few days. 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Also...that was a remarkable stretch. I know with the addition of "enhanced" things are a bit harder to come by for moderate risks now...BUT we had moderate risks in 2008 on June 4, 10, 16. Pretty absurd for this region for a single month. 

2012 was another one of course. Many remember the derecho - but we often forget about the TOR-driven moderate risk on June 1, 2012. We had a uber mini 15% hatched zone right over the DC area for tornado. 

We definitely seem to have periods when we go on "runs" for extreme weather types. I'm sure it's linked to overall large-scale patterns persisting for more than just a few days. 

If you read the SPC convective outlooks leading up to that event, you will notice several interesting things:

1.) SPC went 30% probabilistic on D3. That's anomalous.

2.) The Day 3 and Day 2 mentioned negative tilted upper low. . .in June. Red flag that we're dealing with a potent event.

3.) We closed well on this event: dynamics and instability. Had we had even an hour or two of legitimate, full sun then it would've been a top 10 tornado day in this region. To me, that event is the benchmark for non-tropical tornado days in these parts.

[yoda]

Sneaky wind threat on Saturday?  Its a MRGL on the new day 2... but its all we've got for now

[Kmlwx]

CIPS is *lit* at the 72hr frame. It even has June 1, 2012 in the analogs  

[Kmlwx]

2 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

CIPS is *lit* at the 72hr frame. It even has June 1, 2012 in the analogs  

I'm actually sort of intrigued at Sunday evening. The timing seems a bit off and it's not clear that areas (especially NE of the Potomac) will be unstable enough - but 12z NAM nest really fires a lot of storms mainly west and south of the metros. It would align well with CIPS honking - but not sure there's a ton of support. Good indication of missing ingredients. 

[Kmlwx]

FWIW - HRRR has been awful at initializing the storms to the west. 

[midatlanticweather]

Looked good for a bit. This was back about 15 mins ago