Heisy Posted February 4, 2025 Share Posted February 4, 2025 Northern stream might be a touch suppressive this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 4, 2025 Share Posted February 4, 2025 GFS trying for the 11th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2025 Author Share Posted February 4, 2025 Ok, slug approaches from the southwest...seems earlier? We have the 850s...sfc is above freezing tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2025 Author Share Posted February 4, 2025 Angle of approach and orientation is a little better than 6z from what I can tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2025 Author Share Posted February 4, 2025 sfc temps collapse...looks light to mod snow from 6z to 9z Tues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2025 Author Share Posted February 4, 2025 And can confirm..looks a little more suppressive/smooshed to the south, but looks like we get some decent snows so far...let's see if we can get the rest up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2025 Share Posted February 4, 2025 Here is my personal tracking rules Anything from 204 hours out-is Fantasy land Phase 1 192 hours and in---okay....this is probably trackable 120-192 hours---where storms usually die but this is the time frame to start legit play by play Phase 2 120 hours--is Phase 2. If we reach Phase 2--we will likely have the event. Just have no idea where the screw zone is 84-120 hours---this is where the event still happens but something screwy occurs to shift the snow north or south lol Phase 3 Nam Range--the GFS cant be that bad at 84 hours range.....the storm is pretty much on my mind 24.7. Phase 4(24 hours to game time) this is very never racking especially if 15-20 mile ticks can make or break the event. I dont know how we ever survive to actually get a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 4, 2025 Share Posted February 4, 2025 Just now, stormtracker said: And can confirm..looks a little more suppressive/smooshed to the south, but looks like we get some decent snows so far...let's see if we can get the rest up this way Still like a full day earlier than the euro… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 4, 2025 Share Posted February 4, 2025 12 hours of light to moderate snow and more to come...maybe big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2025 Author Share Posted February 4, 2025 Meh...we lose the sfc freezing line 850 well to the south draped across south central VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2025 Author Share Posted February 4, 2025 Just now, Solution Man said: 12 hours of light to moderate snow and more to come...maybe big Eh...it's suppressed and a bit warmer at the sfc than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2025 Author Share Posted February 4, 2025 1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Still like a full day earlier than the euro… and the ICON I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2025 Share Posted February 4, 2025 AI was suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 4, 2025 Share Posted February 4, 2025 GFS looks like it has a round 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2025 Author Share Posted February 4, 2025 Sorry guys. It's a disappointing follow up to 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2025 Author Share Posted February 4, 2025 1 minute ago, bncho said: GFS looks like it has a round 2. No 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 4, 2025 Share Posted February 4, 2025 1 minute ago, Ji said: youve been wrong on almost every model projection the past 3 days sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted February 4, 2025 Share Posted February 4, 2025 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Cleveland Park station Engine Company 28 DCFD. Yes I did a screen capture on the photo and uploaded it to ChatGPT. :---) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2025 Author Share Posted February 4, 2025 2 minutes ago, bncho said: GFS looks like it has a round 2. I mean, let me rephrase...it's some light stuff as the main slug is sliding se and off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2025 Author Share Posted February 4, 2025 lol, crappy SV maps aren't as bad as it looks on the precip maps, but we all know it's counting accumulating snow when surface temps are like 35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 4, 2025 Share Posted February 4, 2025 Well, I'm going to take a SE miss, especially when compared to a NW miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2025 Author Share Posted February 4, 2025 When it's below freezing, it's actually not that bad when the first period of snows come through. Something like 4 to 6? Pretty map people do your thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 4, 2025 Share Posted February 4, 2025 I think the GFS is likely out to lunch here, that whole part 1 seems suspicious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 4, 2025 Share Posted February 4, 2025 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: lol, crappy SV maps aren't as bad as it looks on the precip maps, but we all know it's counting accumulating snow when surface temps are like 35 Kuchera is like 8” in DC. Not bad. North of Baltimore gets screwed hard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 4, 2025 Share Posted February 4, 2025 Just now, stormtracker said: When it's below freezing, it's actually not that bad when the first period of snows come through. Something like 4 to 6? Pretty map people do your thing. 20 inches in south VA... Ji won't be happy. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 4, 2025 Share Posted February 4, 2025 I, for one, am looking forward to our 48 hours of snow next Monday-Wednesday. 3 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 4, 2025 Share Posted February 4, 2025 Just now, MN Transplant said: I, for one, am looking forward to our 48 hours of snow next Monday-Wednesday. 48 hours?.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2025 Author Share Posted February 4, 2025 2 minutes ago, bncho said: 20 inches in south VA... Ji won't be happy. Yeah, the northern cut off from great to decent is brutal. Well, my bad for making it seem worse than it was. Told yall I was gonna fuck it up. It just looked kinda unimpressive on SV. Surface seemed way too warm. And to be fair, I was comparing it to 6z, which was better IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 4, 2025 Share Posted February 4, 2025 2 minutes ago, bncho said: 20 inches in south VA... Ji won't be happy. Short Pump wins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 4, 2025 Share Posted February 4, 2025 Light snow by dawn Tuesday in GGEM. Vort is very weak relative to gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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