Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[wncsnow]

Just now, Met1985 said:

So you're saying the weeklies are volatile?

And they shouldn't be taken too seriously unless they show something consistent multiple runs. Remember a few winters ago when they showed a colder pattern always a few weeks away that never really happened? Just another tool you can use to get a big picture. 

[Met1985]

2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

And they shouldn't be taken too seriously unless they show something consistent multiple runs. Remember a few winters ago when they showed a colder pattern always a few weeks away that never really happened? Just another tool you can use to get a big picture. 

Yes that's why the mid range has been horrible.  A lot of the models have done a 180 in the 7 to 10 day time frame from what they where showing some 2 day's ago. 

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, wncsnow said:

The Weeklies literally just had a run of above average for the month of January a few days ago

You're not wrong. I don't care alot for them anymore. Besides , they're run so often now why are they even called Weeklies. As far as the colder solutions now, they are late thru the Gate. The Controls picked up on the colder solutions sooner. The Blocking should assure the colder pattern as a Sw displaced 50-50 looks to be going to be in Place. IF that Feature were to not materialize then the cold won't be as deep or pronounced.

[olafminesaw]

Eric webb is one of the best, However he does tend to be a bit reactionary

[GaWx]

48 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

You're not wrong. I don't care alot for them anymore. Besides , they're run so often now why are they even called Weeklies. As far as the colder solutions now, they are late thru the Gate. The Controls picked up on the colder solutions sooner. The Blocking should assure the colder pattern as a Sw displaced 50-50 looks to be going to be in Place. IF that Feature were to not materialize then the cold won't be as deep or pronounced.

 A number of folks are confused by the term “Weeklies”. They’re currently called that not because of the frequency of issuance but rather the in-house maps are for one week at a time and also they go out 5-6 weeks.

 Going back a number of years I know they were issued only twice a week on Mon and Thu. I can’t recall if they were issued only once a week going further back. I’m leaning that way though. Maybe on Mondays only originally?

 The more I think about it and try to recall, the more positive I am that they started out being issued only once per week.

—————
 KSAV had 75 today. The forecast is more 75s every day through Sunday. That would give us 6 days in a row of 75ish. Then the bottom falls out on 12/29!

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Larry Cosgrove outlook for January 2026

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Larry Cosgrove outlook for January 2026

Larry's an excellent Medium / LR Forecaster.

[BornAgain13]

Cue the Jaws Music at the end of the 12z Canadian. And a couple close hits with snow and ice for some folks on the 12z GFS 

[BornAgain13]

Merry CHRISTmas to all of you! 

[wncsnow]

Op Euro not impressed with winter weather chances the first week of the month. 

[Snowacane]

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

Op Euro not impressed with winter weather chances the first week of the month. 

Then tell it to go to it's room

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, BornAgain13 said:

Merry CHRISTmas to all of you! 

Merry Christmas to you Brother !

[Upstate Tiger]

Merry Christmas you filthy animals…and a happy New Year!

May your New Year be filled with banana highs and Miller A’s.  

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

Nice post. The end of the Ensemble means began to show signs of a + PNA with some blocking getting a little more robust near Greenland. Hopefully we are finally on to something.


.

[BooneWX]

EPS says bye bye Aleutian Ridge

[wncsnow]

15 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

You know its not good when we are relying on the JMA seasonal.. 

 

Now that Christmas is over, lets get real about the pattern. It's pretty obvious we are punting until at least January 10. Its not a torch but more of a wash rinse repeat of cutter, brief cool down, warm up, rain. 

Most seasoned mets and long range forecasts are pointing to the period of January 12-20 for our next real shot of snow. Will that materialize? Who knows but we are about to start wasting prime climo. 

I don't see a January 2022 repeat next month. Maybe we get a week or 2 period but 2022 was cold for most of the month with multiple snows  in different parts of the state. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

 

I don't see a January 2022 repeat next month. Maybe we get a week or 2 period but 2022 was cold for most of the month with multiple snows  in different parts of the state. 

 We’ll see. But keep in mind that:

-Jan 22 had +NAO/+AO

-This was the PNA forecast as of 4 years ago today through 1/9/22: it was for still -PNA as of 1/9/22. It turned out that 1/9/22 was the first +PNA day of a 38 straight day +PNA. So, GEFS 4 years ago was blind to its start even as late as today:

 

- Today’s GEFS PNA forecast is eerily similarly maintaining a -PNA: hmmmm

Also, keep in mind that GEFS (and all of the major ensembles) have had a strong -PNA bias over the last 90 days:

[BooneWX]

A lot of model noise for the 4th - 7th with more hits centered around the 6th. 

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

4 hours ago, wncsnow said:

You know its not good when we are relying on the JMA seasonal.. 

 

Now that Christmas is over, lets get real about the pattern. It's pretty obvious we are punting until at least January 10. Its not a torch but more of a wash rinse repeat of cutter, brief cool down, warm up, rain. 

Most seasoned mets and long range forecasts are pointing to the period of January 12-20 for our next real shot of snow. Will that materialize? Who knows but we are about to start wasting prime climo. 

I don't see a January 2022 repeat next month. Maybe we get a week or 2 period but 2022 was cold for most of the month with multiple snows  in different parts of the state. 

Sometimes you are just plain strange. Who are the "most seasoned mets" you are referring to??? I have not seen any met saying to wait 3 more weeks before any chance of winter weather. What are you looking at that would lead you to believe that? Please post a link. 

[wncsnow]

There are some positive changes but its far from a slam dunk. The EPS is still not quite cold enough for most for the 4th-7th. The Op GFS looks terrible. The GEFS isnt there yet either. 

 

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

There are some positive changes but its far from a slam dunk. The EPS is still not quite cold enough for most for the 4th-7th. The Op GFS looks terrible. The GEFS isnt there yet either. 

 

Things are looking up for Jan just as our buddy Buc-ee is doing:

[BooneWX]

Again. It’s getting noisy in this timeframe. Euro has a cutter but a stout cad delivering an ice storm.


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[WinstonSalemArlington]

January 7

[Met1985]

Mid to long range be looking better and better.

[BooneWX]

If this blocking continues to establish, we’re in play even during a seemingly mild setup or stretch. I can’t recall a block this persistent or stout in some time. You’re bound to get a high to the north and a storm eventually. The southern jet is getting some life as well. Changes are afoot my friends.

[BooneWX]

If this all comes to fruition because of the pacific jet extending just enough but not overextending and pumping our southern shortwaves, it’s going to be a thing of beauty. We seemingly never have any component of the Pacific working for us and we may be staring down the barrel of an Aleutian Low, near ridge bridge on the west coast and impulses into the subtropical jet with blocking to boot. BUCKLE THE HECK UP. Get that coffee ready for those 1 am euro runs. 
 

LETS FREAKING GO

[WiseWeather]

If this all comes to fruition because of the pacific jet extending just enough but not overextending and pumping our southern shortwaves, it’s going to be a thing of beauty. We seemingly never have any component of the Pacific working for us and we may be staring down the barrel of an Aleutian Low, near ridge bridge on the west coast and impulses into the subtropical jet with blocking to boot. BUCKLE THE HECK UP. Get that coffee ready for those 1 am euro runs. 
 
LETS FREAKING GO

I like the enthusiasm. LFG.


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[BooneWX]

1 minute ago, WiseWeather said:

I like the enthusiasm. LFG.


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Every now and then I get a feeling we’re headed for glory. Last time I felt this way was around that Jan 2022 timeframe. Idk, I’ve got an itch. Let’s speak this pattern into existence. We’ve already bullied the Aleutian Ridge.

[WinstonSalemArlington]