wncsnow Posted Wednesday at 12:29 AM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 12:29 AM Just now, Met1985 said: So you're saying the weeklies are volatile? And they shouldn't be taken too seriously unless they show something consistent multiple runs. Remember a few winters ago when they showed a colder pattern always a few weeks away that never really happened? Just another tool you can use to get a big picture. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted Wednesday at 12:33 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:33 AM 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: And they shouldn't be taken too seriously unless they show something consistent multiple runs. Remember a few winters ago when they showed a colder pattern always a few weeks away that never really happened? Just another tool you can use to get a big picture. Yes that's why the mid range has been horrible. A lot of the models have done a 180 in the 7 to 10 day time frame from what they where showing some 2 day's ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Wednesday at 01:22 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:22 AM 3 hours ago, wncsnow said: The Weeklies literally just had a run of above average for the month of January a few days ago You're not wrong. I don't care alot for them anymore. Besides , they're run so often now why are they even called Weeklies. As far as the colder solutions now, they are late thru the Gate. The Controls picked up on the colder solutions sooner. The Blocking should assure the colder pattern as a Sw displaced 50-50 looks to be going to be in Place. IF that Feature were to not materialize then the cold won't be as deep or pronounced. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Wednesday at 01:28 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:28 AM Eric webb is one of the best, However he does tend to be a bit reactionary 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Wednesday at 01:44 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:44 AM 48 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: You're not wrong. I don't care alot for them anymore. Besides , they're run so often now why are they even called Weeklies. As far as the colder solutions now, they are late thru the Gate. The Controls picked up on the colder solutions sooner. The Blocking should assure the colder pattern as a Sw displaced 50-50 looks to be going to be in Place. IF that Feature were to not materialize then the cold won't be as deep or pronounced. A number of folks are confused by the term “Weeklies”. They’re currently called that not because of the frequency of issuance but rather the in-house maps are for one week at a time and also they go out 5-6 weeks. Going back a number of years I know they were issued only twice a week on Mon and Thu. I can’t recall if they were issued only once a week going further back. I’m leaning that way though. Maybe on Mondays only originally? The more I think about it and try to recall, the more positive I am that they started out being issued only once per week. ————— KSAV had 75 today. The forecast is more 75s every day through Sunday. That would give us 6 days in a row of 75ish. Then the bottom falls out on 12/29! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted Wednesday at 02:19 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:19 AM Larry Cosgrove outlook for January 2026 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Wednesday at 03:43 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:43 AM 1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Larry Cosgrove outlook for January 2026 Larry's an excellent Medium / LR Forecaster. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Wednesday at 05:03 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:03 PM Cue the Jaws Music at the end of the 12z Canadian. And a couple close hits with snow and ice for some folks on the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Wednesday at 05:11 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:11 PM Merry CHRISTmas to all of you! 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Wednesday at 06:16 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 06:16 PM Op Euro not impressed with winter weather chances the first week of the month. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowacane Posted Wednesday at 07:29 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:29 PM 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: Op Euro not impressed with winter weather chances the first week of the month. Then tell it to go to it's room 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Wednesday at 08:25 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:25 PM 3 hours ago, BornAgain13 said: Merry CHRISTmas to all of you! Merry Christmas to you Brother ! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted Wednesday at 10:07 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 10:07 PM Merry Christmas you filthy animals…and a happy New Year! May your New Year be filled with banana highs and Miller A’s. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago Nice post. The end of the Ensemble means began to show signs of a + PNA with some blocking getting a little more robust near Greenland. Hopefully we are finally on to something.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago EPS says bye bye Aleutian Ridge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 15 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: You know its not good when we are relying on the JMA seasonal.. Now that Christmas is over, lets get real about the pattern. It's pretty obvious we are punting until at least January 10. Its not a torch but more of a wash rinse repeat of cutter, brief cool down, warm up, rain. Most seasoned mets and long range forecasts are pointing to the period of January 12-20 for our next real shot of snow. Will that materialize? Who knows but we are about to start wasting prime climo. I don't see a January 2022 repeat next month. Maybe we get a week or 2 period but 2022 was cold for most of the month with multiple snows in different parts of the state. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 19 minutes ago Share Posted 19 minutes ago 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: I don't see a January 2022 repeat next month. Maybe we get a week or 2 period but 2022 was cold for most of the month with multiple snows in different parts of the state. We’ll see. But keep in mind that: -Jan 22 had +NAO/+AO -This was the PNA forecast as of 4 years ago today through 1/9/22: it was for still -PNA as of 1/9/22. It turned out that 1/9/22 was the first +PNA day of a 38 straight day +PNA. So, GEFS 4 years ago was blind to its start even as late as today: - Today’s GEFS PNA forecast is eerily similarly maintaining a -PNA: hmmmm Also, keep in mind that GEFS (and all of the major ensembles) have had a strong -PNA bias over the last 90 days: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 4 minutes ago Share Posted 4 minutes ago A lot of model noise for the 4th - 7th with more hits centered around the 6th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now