Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[wncsnow]

Just now, Met1985 said:

So you're saying the weeklies are volatile?

And they shouldn't be taken too seriously unless they show something consistent multiple runs. Remember a few winters ago when they showed a colder pattern always a few weeks away that never really happened? Just another tool you can use to get a big picture. 

[Met1985]

2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

And they shouldn't be taken too seriously unless they show something consistent multiple runs. Remember a few winters ago when they showed a colder pattern always a few weeks away that never really happened? Just another tool you can use to get a big picture. 

Yes that's why the mid range has been horrible.  A lot of the models have done a 180 in the 7 to 10 day time frame from what they where showing some 2 day's ago. 

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, wncsnow said:

The Weeklies literally just had a run of above average for the month of January a few days ago

You're not wrong. I don't care alot for them anymore. Besides , they're run so often now why are they even called Weeklies. As far as the colder solutions now, they are late thru the Gate. The Controls picked up on the colder solutions sooner. The Blocking should assure the colder pattern as a Sw displaced 50-50 looks to be going to be in Place. IF that Feature were to not materialize then the cold won't be as deep or pronounced.

[olafminesaw]

Eric webb is one of the best, However he does tend to be a bit reactionary

[GaWx]

48 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

You're not wrong. I don't care alot for them anymore. Besides , they're run so often now why are they even called Weeklies. As far as the colder solutions now, they are late thru the Gate. The Controls picked up on the colder solutions sooner. The Blocking should assure the colder pattern as a Sw displaced 50-50 looks to be going to be in Place. IF that Feature were to not materialize then the cold won't be as deep or pronounced.

 A number of folks are confused by the term “Weeklies”. They’re currently called that not because of the frequency of issuance but rather the in-house maps are for one week at a time and also they go out 5-6 weeks.

 Going back a number of years I know they were issued only twice a week on Mon and Thu. I can’t recall if they were issued only once a week going further back. I’m leaning that way though. Maybe on Mondays only originally?

 The more I think about it and try to recall, the more positive I am that they started out being issued only once per week.

—————
 KSAV had 75 today. The forecast is more 75s every day through Sunday. That would give us 6 days in a row of 75ish. Then the bottom falls out on 12/29!

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Larry Cosgrove outlook for January 2026

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Larry Cosgrove outlook for January 2026

Larry's an excellent Medium / LR Forecaster.

[BornAgain13]

Cue the Jaws Music at the end of the 12z Canadian. And a couple close hits with snow and ice for some folks on the 12z GFS 

[BornAgain13]

Merry CHRISTmas to all of you! 

[wncsnow]

Op Euro not impressed with winter weather chances the first week of the month.