Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[Met1985]

Not a terrible look from the Euro.

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[BooneWX]

9 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Not a terrible look from the Euro.

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Next week looks downright chilly 

[Upstate Tiger]

43 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Not a terrible look from the Euro.

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Yep next week will be cold.  We need that trough axis about 500 miles to the west.

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

Yep next week will be cold.  We need that trough axis about 500 miles to the west.

We sure do. Let’s see how it trends? My guess is that it won’t move much further. Canadian Ensemble mean showing extended GOA to Baja ridge which isn’t a terrible look with Greenland blocking. It’s a crap shoot right now LOL.


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[Upstate Tiger]

2 minutes ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said:

We sure do. Let’s see how it trends? My guess is that it won’t move much further. Canadian Ensemble mean showing extended GOA to Baja which isn’t a terrible look with Greenland blocking. It’s a crap shoot right now LOL.


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It looks like we will see more cold intrusions into the SE as we get into January.  Maybe we can thread the needle on one but isn't that always the case LOL.  

[wncsnow]

It reminds me a little of January 2022 

[GaWx]

Just now, wncsnow said:

It reminds me a little of January 2022 

Jan 2022 is an analog.

[wncsnow]

Just now, GaWx said:

Jan 2022 is an analog.

Thanks. There's opportunity with Canada remaining cold. 

[Met1985]

The way the models have been adjusting especially with this upcoming cold shot because of the building negative NAO there will be some wild swings especially in the mid range.

[BooneWX]

Jan 22 had a very fun miller b

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

The way the models have been adjusting especially with this upcoming cold shot because of the building negative NAO there will be some wild swings especially in the mid range.

18z GFS even further west with trough and is responding to the building negative NAO that you mentioned.


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[BooneWX]

What does everyone want? Don’t tell me a foot+, that’s obvious. Give me something more attainable. I’ll start:

 

I would love about 6” of snow with a delayed warm nose that delivers a 1” blanket of sleet on top. Sledding for days on the ice sheet with my daughter and brutal cold on the backside.

[Upstate Tiger]

Congratulations SE peeps! I think we all willed the 18z into a classic Miller A.  
 

Now if we can only will it into actually happening.  

[wncsnow]

7 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

What does everyone want? Don’t tell me a foot+, that’s obvious. Give me something more attainable. I’ll start:

 

I would love about 6” of snow with a delayed warm nose that delivers a 1” blanket of sleet on top. Sledding for days on the ice sheet with my daughter and brutal cold on the backside.

Just a warning criteria snow (4"+) thats not much really. 

[Grayman]

13 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Just a warning criteria snow (4"+) thats not much really. 

Parts of the central Carolina we are all dead from crippling ice storm 

[BornAgain13]

8" of sleet on 18z GFS. lol

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Improvement 

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, BooneWX said:

What does everyone want? Don’t tell me a foot+, that’s obvious. Give me something more attainable. I’ll start:

 

I would love about 6” of snow with a delayed warm nose that delivers a 1” blanket of sleet on top. Sledding for days on the ice sheet with my daughter and brutal cold on the backside.

Enough snow to shovel my driveway

[NorthHillsWx]

Nice looking at fantasy sleet storms past hour 300 than the endless fantasy torches we’ve seen over the last week

[BooneWX]

It’s the trashFS but not gonna lie, that happy hour run was fun. 

[WiseWeather]

I think the state of NC would be non existent if that verified….


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[NorthHillsWx]

Anyone have access to IP/ZR accumulation maps for the fantasy storm on gfs, just for fun?

[Met1985]

18z freezing rain map.

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[Met1985]

18z gfs snowfall

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[wncsnow]

54 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

18z gfs snowfall

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That would turn me as optimistic as you for at least 3 winters 

[scottk]

I’m looking to rent a cabin somewhere in the NC mountains for New Year’s Eve through the weekend…

Where’s the best chance for snow?  Or where’s the best place for me to ask this question? Lol

[NorthHillsWx]

7 hours ago, Met1985 said:

18z freezing rain map.

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Thats one of the more impressive ZR maps I’ve seen 

[BooneWX]

Are we wedging out of Friday’s heat wave?


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[WinstonSalemArlington]

December 29-January 3

[BooneWX]

27 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

December 29-January 3

Aligns with Bam’s original forecast for the period into and after new years. He’s now saying Jan 7th is a date that needs to be circled on the east coast.