Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[wncsnow]

Just now, GaWx said:

Today’s Euro Weeklies weeks all trended warmer than yesterday and AN for most of the US. No trending toward a +PNA mid-Jan like yesterday. Yesterday’s had NN in SE 1/12-2/1. One of the worst runs this season and hopefully coming days will reverse.

 

Lol

[NorthHillsWx]

28 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Today’s Euro Weeklies weeks all trended warmer than yesterday and AN for most of the US. No trending toward a +PNA mid-Jan like yesterday. Yesterday’s had NN in SE 1/12-2/1. One of the worst runs this season and hopefully coming days will reverse.

 

As shocked as I was when the sun came up this morning 

[GaWx]

Don’t look at the 0Z Euro….or better yet look at it OMG!

Many NC peeps won’t be thrilled but anyway: this is for 12/30 to early 12/31:

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

I see it GaWx. A whole lot would have to come together in that scenario but at least it’s something to watch.


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[NorthHillsWx]

Ahhh! The infamous bowling ball with transient HP setup. Big dog potential or 40 degree rain with exact same LP track. That’s a go big or go home type setup. With nothing else foreseeable and one of the worst overall patterns in years establishing, I’m here for it…

[gtg947h]

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

Don’t look at the 0Z Euro….or better yet look at it OMG!

We're closing on a house just south of Atlanta Jan 2nd... I don't need that

[NorthHillsWx]

38 minutes ago, gtg947h said:

We're closing on a house just south of Atlanta Jan 2nd... I don't need that

We moved into my current house December 8, 2018. I think some on this board remember that date. Thought at the time I’d cracked the code for snow in triangle 

[GaWx]

56 minutes ago, gtg947h said:

We're closing on a house just south of Atlanta Jan 2nd... I don't need that

 The roads from this highly unlikely 0Z Euro still in semi-fantasyland (mainly Dec 30th there) snow out of nowhere (and only one of the 50 EPS members (#30) has anything like this) would be fine by Jan 2nd per the same run. So, you’d just be left with beautiful scenery for your closing.

 If this were to somehow happen though, there’d be many very upset members NC/TN north. They’d be giving @suzookand @dsaura hard time! So, maybe it’s better it not happen lol. I don’t think they’ll need to worry about this occuring.

[NorthHillsWx]

MJO moving into phase 2, PNA tanking, NAO going from negative to neutral. Too soon to call the month shot but January is looking extremely bleak. We’re losing the cold in Canada and likely will be looking at a total reset needed on this side of the globe. In other words, this is trending towards a disaster as we head into prime climo. Looks like a pure Nina pattern developing with continental air. My god any optimism has faded at rapid rates this year 

[wncsnow]

19 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

MJO moving into phase 2, PNA tanking, NAO going from negative to neutral. Too soon to call the month shot but January is looking extremely bleak. We’re losing the cold in Canada and likely will be looking at a total reset needed on this side of the globe. In other words, this is trending towards a disaster as we head into prime climo. Looks like a pure Nina pattern developing with continental air. My god any optimism has faded at rapid rates this year 

There's very little to be optimistic about right now. Add in the fact that it doesnt snow during February or March during Ninas and we got an uphill battle 

[NorthHillsWx]

49 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

There's very little to be optimistic about right now. Add in the fact that it doesnt snow during February or March during Ninas and we got an uphill battle 

Uphill battle every year for snow in the south with cards stacked against us from climo but this looks like a total disaster heading into January. This isn’t the reset we were thinking a week ago, this looks like our worst fears realized and a switch to full on Nina winter. With the cold leaving Canada we’re talking weeks of step down to get cold enough to talk winter weather at a minimum. And that’s assuming something flips. I’m typically not a mid season cliff diver but I haven’t seen anything trending right over the last week. Add in STJ is dead and will remain that way unless pacific relaxes which is a pipe dream at this point. Need some hope at some point before the calendar flips to 2026

[BooneWX]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

MJO moving into phase 2, PNA tanking, NAO going from negative to neutral. Too soon to call the month shot but January is looking extremely bleak. We’re losing the cold in Canada and likely will be looking at a total reset needed on this side of the globe. In other words, this is trending towards a disaster as we head into prime climo. Looks like a pure Nina pattern developing with continental air. My god any optimism has faded at rapid rates this year 

I’ll always have my Dec 8th 2025 flizzard 

[Met1985]

Well looking forward to severe weather this spring. At least yall already know this winter is cooked.  No need to look off the side of the cliff. Just jump and enjoy the warm winter.

[NorthHillsWx]

35 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I’ll always have my Dec 8th 2025 flizzard 

But… was it measurable if it was a trace? 

[wncsnow]

If anyone was wondering, last nights fantasy storm is gone on today's Euro. Just another brief cooldown before warming up to start the New Year! 

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, gtg947h said:

We're closing on a house just south of Atlanta Jan 2nd... I don't need that

You can relax now. The 12Z Euro has no storm, which was fully expected due to the 0Z coming out of nowhere in semi-fantasyland and with hardly any EPS support. But the 12Z does look solid cold as early as the PM of 12/29 and lasting through 12/31 fwiw. However, its E US trough is stronger than other 12Z ops and is thus currently an outlier for the cold. Regardless, the colder trend seems to be there. So, we’ll see. 
 

 Edit: The 12Z EPS has no support for a synoptic scale SE snowstorm as they support a mainly dry shot of cold.

[Met1985]

An impressive trough then yes warm-up but then possibly more cold but honestly past day 5 it's a crapshoot.

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[Met1985]

The 12z gfs rolls the trough up top with a backdoor front but amplifies a ridge out west. Yes this coming week is warm but the pattern does jumble up a bit after that.

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[BooneWX]

The Panthers are still playing meaningful football in December, so I’ve got hope that cold can come back

[wncsnow]

The big question for me is, what happens later in January and Feb/early March? Do we continue the trend of early springs or can the -NAO make an appearance later in the season when the wavelengths are shorter and the big dog potential goes up? 

[BooneWX]

9 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The big question for me is, what happens later in January and Feb/early March? Do we continue the trend of early springs or can the -NAO make an appearance later in the season when the wavelengths are shorter and the big dog potential goes up? 

I’m not on the board with a cold Feb yet but with a decreasing Niña influence, I don’t think it’s out of the question to at least be near average. That would be a huge shift from years of late.

[GaWx]

 FFC is forecasting 4 days of 70s highs in ATL: 12/24-7 with 12/28 in the mid 60s. As has been said, the 4 days of 70+ in late Dec would be pretty historic although not as high as a few years that had 5-6 days of 70+ in late Dec.

[wncsnow]

4 of the top 5 record highs on Christmas in Asheville are in the past 10 years.....

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

4 of the top 5 record highs on Christmas in Asheville are in the past 10 years.....

According to JB, this is just natural and has nothing to do with increased CO2 and other greenhouse gases. I don’t buy that at all. We have increased from 370 to 420 ppm CO2 in the past 25 years. This can not be a coincidence.


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[Met1985]

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

4 of the top 5 record highs on Christmas in Asheville are in the past 10 years.....

Probably a record this Christmas as well. We've had several extremes around the south the past couple of years. 

[NorthHillsWx]

46 minutes ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said:

According to JB, this is just natural and has nothing to do with increased CO2 and other greenhouse gases. I don’t buy that at all. We have increased from 370 to 420 ppm CO2 in the past 25 years. This can not be a coincidence.


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RDU now has Columbia’s climate. RDUs climate has shifted to DC. Do that across the country 

[tarheelwx]

JB does have some good arguments though. 
TW

[eyewall]

I was worried about it being too front loaded this winter and unfortunately that may be true. 

[Met1985]

If this trough verifies coming up that would mean non of the ensembles caught this outside day 7. Then the pattern again looks to be up and down.

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[Upstate Tiger]