Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[GaWx]

49 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I don't see much to be excited about. CAD could keep us from torching but no winter weather threats on the horizon. 

 
 Anything to keep any torch short-lived rather than long-lived would be a win for me. Considering that the SE will have had a very enjoyably cold dominated 11/27-12/16: IF the SE can somehow manage for 12/17-31 to be only slightly warmer than normal thanks largely to cool wedges, I’ll consider it a win.

 Models are already significantly colder than they were just a couple of days ago for this weekend (12/20-1), which is continuing the trend of them being mainly too warm since ~Nov 20th. Is this going to extend this too warm trend through 12/21? If so, can we even trust the longer range of the ensembles?

Fwiw, the 12Z GFS has 4 warm periods but all last only ~24 hours with the cool to cold days at least as prevalent.

[kvegas-wx]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 
 Anything to keep any torch short-lived rather than long-lived would be a win for me. Considering that the SE will have had a very enjoyably cold dominated 11/27-12/16: IF the SE can somehow manage for 12/17-31 to be only slightly warmer than normal thanks largely to cool wedges, I’ll consider it a win.

 Models are already significantly colder than they were just a couple of days ago for this weekend (12/20-1), which is continuing the trend of them being mainly too warm since ~Nov 20th. Is this going to extend this too warm trend through 12/21? If so, can we even trust the longer range of the ensembles?

Fwiw, the 12Z GFS has 4 warm periods but all last only ~24 hours with the cool to cold days at least as prevalent.

You, my friend, are a Bengals fan.  Glad to have a like minded friend on board.  Your assessment is the equivilent of racking up 450 yards and 38 points, and losing by 1.  I think I speak for many, if we ain't winning, I don't care about the stats. 

[Upstate Tiger]

I’m one of the biggest snow  on here but yesterday felt awesome on the golf course.  I can’t figure out why no one’s on the course today?  There’s not a cloud in the sky.  

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[BooneWX]

Absolutely insane sound effect snow band


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[Leesville Wx Hawk]

I wonder what that is translating to? You would think ratios would be pretty solid even with it being off sound considering air temps should be upper 20’s or so.


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[BooneWX]

37 minutes ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said:

I wonder what that is translating to? You would think ratios would be pretty solid even with it being off sound considering air temps should be upper 20’s or so.


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From what I’ve seen on Facebook, a dusting to a half an inch. It’s on the move, but I’d think if it had stayed stationary, some folks would’ve been smoked. Okracoke is getting in on the fun now. 

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

From what I’ve seen on Facebook, a dusting to a half an inch. It’s on the move, but I’d think if it had stayed stationary, some folks would’ve been smoked. Okracoke is getting in on the fun now. 

Appreciate the feedback BooneWX!


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[Met1985]

We continue to see this upcoming torch muted. Honestly yall shouldn't be surprised.  This has basically happened all season.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

53 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

We continue to see this upcoming torch muted. Honestly yall shouldn't be surprised.  This has basically happened all season.

Indeed. And even in summer, GFS was repeatedly advertising historic heat waves in the long-range that never occurred 

[wncsnow]

Upper 60s on Christmas eve and pushing 70 on Christmas Day is pretty torchy to me. Why are we even looking at the GFS or GEFS its awful. 

[wncsnow]

Come on guys. Lets look at the EPS, It shows above average for over a week. Dec 20-29 all looks at or above average. Only thing that will save us is CAD or rain or both. 

[Met1985]

21 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Come on guys. Lets look at the EPS, It shows above average for over a week. Dec 20-29 all looks at or above average. Only thing that will save us is CAD or rain or both. 

You're posting a plus 300 hour map bro.

[NorthHillsWx]

As @wncsnow is saying, I see nothing muted about this “torch”. To me a week of above normal for the eastern half of the us is a torch. Maybe our temps get muted somewhat bc of a wedge but synoptically the cold is gone from the east for an extended period so this is the dreaded shut the blinds pattern until maybe the first week in January. I don’t see a hell ridge from the SER but if you want winter weather (everyone posting here) near normal isn’t going to cut it and there aren’t any threats as far as we can look out at this point. We’re punting 2+ weeks that’s a given.

[wncsnow]

11 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

You're posting a plus 300 hour map bro.

Its the EPS and I can show 200 hour maps that show the same. Anywhere from 6-16 days look at or above average according to the EPS. 

[wncsnow]

Here is another map at 6 days. 

[wncsnow]

The snow drought continues in WNC. And the dry conditions will continue through the end of the month. Its almost a guarantee December will be way below average rain for most of the state. 

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

As [mention=3725]wncsnow[/mention] is saying, I see nothing muted about this “torch”. To me a week of above normal for the eastern half of the us is a torch. Maybe our temps get muted somewhat bc of a wedge but synoptically the cold is gone from the east for an extended period so this is the dreaded shut the blinds pattern until maybe the first week in January. I don’t see a hell ridge from the SER but if you want winter weather (everyone posting here) near normal isn’t going to cut it and there aren’t any threats as far as we can look out at this point. We’re punting 2+ weeks that’s a given.

I think you’re right about this North Hills. Not seeing anything definitive to indicate blocking and we definitely don’t have a good western ridge.

We will have to be patient. Perhaps we will start to see things turn around on by late December as negative height anomalies begin to wane in the eastern Pacific and positive heights begin to build east of Greenland and possibly push west.


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[Met1985]

47 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Its the EPS and I can show 200 hour maps that show the same. Anywhere from 6-16 days look at or above average according to the EPS. 

The EPS has been just as inconsistent as the gfs has been.

[Met1985]

We've seen pattern changes happen abruptly and to say that nothing looks muted is inconsistent with what the models have been going towards the past 24 hours.

[wncsnow]

3 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

The EPS has been just as inconsistent as the gfs has been.

The EPS has been the GEFS daddy for as long as we can remember and you know this 

[Met1985]

Just now, wncsnow said:

The EPS has been the GEFS daddy for as long as we can remember and you know this 

I'm saying this season all the models have struggled mightily. All the models have been having a hard time this season. Sure we will see a reshuffle and that will be a good thing I think. 

[BooneWX]

Bottom line: gotta kick that Aleutian Ridge

[Met1985]

This current pattern isn't ideal so a reshuffle is a good thing. We've just had a nice cold period so obviously the pattern is going to relax some. 

[wncsnow]

We need a reshuffle I won't argue that. Maybe we can finally get that Greenland block in early January. I'm still concerned that the Pacific may not play nice for the majority of the winter, similar to the past 5 or 6 winters. 

[Daniel Boone]

9 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

We need a reshuffle I won't argue that. Maybe we can finally get that Greenland block in early January. I'm still concerned that the Pacific may not play nice for the majority of the winter, similar to the past 5 or 6 winters. 

We gotta get rid of that GOA Low and slow down the Pac Jet. The sooner the better . I think, providing the MJO is in cold Phases we'd be alright then. As is , strong Blocking may do the trick. 

[Daniel Boone]

29 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Bottom line: gotta kick that Aleutian Ridge

Need it over Alaska and the GOA Low over the Aleutians. 

[BooneWX]

3 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Need it over Alaska and the GOA Low over the Aleutians. 

My fear is that it’s part of the base state. I think we revisit cold snaps many times this winter and it’s far from over in that front, but if we can’t start working it eastward like you said, it’s really going to be hard to move away from this clipper pattern in place over the eastern US. 
 

-NAO would be a huge step as @wncsnowpointed out. I’ll take my chances with a cad high but I’m struggling to see where the southern jet can get involved or we get enough digging out of the northern stream.

[Daniel Boone]

25 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

My fear is that it’s part of the base state. I think we revisit cold snaps many times this winter and it’s far from over in that front, but if we can’t start working it eastward like you said, it’s really going to be hard to move away from this clipper pattern in place over the eastern US. 
 

-NAO would be a huge step as @wncsnowpointed out. I’ll take my chances with a cad high but I’m struggling to see where the southern jet can get involved or we get enough digging out of the northern stream.

Yeah true. Hopefully enough pressure from a favorable MJO and Blocking will get rid of those flies in the Ointment. Once the Nina weakens the STJ should strengthen. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]