BooneWX Posted yesterday at 01:34 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:34 AM It’ll be interesting to see if we continue to trend stronger overnight on the CAD. Rn I’d say this event favors snow in VA and an ice storm with a possible front end thump for those along and north of I-85 in NC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted yesterday at 02:09 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:09 AM 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Bleh. Northern stream doing northern stream things. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago Us foothill folks heard about the northern stream a lot last year. More of the same. Cold rain or cool/dry. Never any snow for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago Cold seems to be backing off for tonight’s system in CAD areas. See WWA hoisted for a lot of mountain/foothills areas but icing looks extremely limited now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 12 hours ago Author Share Posted 12 hours ago Euro with a little hope Friday morning? 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago A little strung out on the Euro and flat but objectively hilarious to see it show snow just as other models fall off the wagon. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 12 hours ago Author Share Posted 12 hours ago I think the models are having trouble keying on which piece of energy to focus on being the main show. It has an overrunning look to me if we can get that CAD to build in stronger. I like the early wave being stronger as the cold is closer then. If it waits until Friday night/Saturday it will likely be ZR or cold rain. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 12 hours ago Author Share Posted 12 hours ago My perspective on the next few weeks- Thursday night/Friday overrunning is the one to watch. Gotta get that northern stream to calm down to allow the southern energy to amplify enough to bring in moisture. The earlier it comes in the better. After that threat, the northern stream looks to be dominant for the next week or so with mostly clipper type systems and at or below average temps for most of the Carolinas. We would need one of those to dig far enough south to bring areas outside of the mountains any snow. After about next weekend, I think the pattern relaxes some and we warm back up to 50s/60s for most and the pattern resets again around the holidays. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 26 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I think the models are having trouble keying on which piece of energy to focus on being the main show. It has an overrunning look to me if we can get that CAD to build in stronger. I like the early wave being stronger as the cold is closer then. If it waits until Friday night/Saturday it will likely be ZR or cold rain. Yep, fits well with the rule of thumb that the GFS is often too progressive. One thing we have working for us for once is the northern stream is not going to become dominant with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 59 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I think the models are having trouble keying on which piece of energy to focus on being the main show. It has an overrunning look to me if we can get that CAD to build in stronger. I like the early wave being stronger as the cold is closer then. If it waits until Friday night/Saturday it will likely be ZR or cold rain. This pattern is complex and the models are not doing a great job with it at all. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago Let’s see if we can wish one of these into existence for Friday @wncsnow . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: My perspective on the next few weeks- Thursday night/Friday overrunning is the one to watch. Gotta get that northern stream to calm down to allow the southern energy to amplify enough to bring in moisture. The earlier it comes in the better. After that threat, the northern stream looks to be dominant for the next week or so with mostly clipper type systems and at or below average temps for most of the Carolinas. We would need one of those to dig far enough south to bring areas outside of the mountains any snow. After about next weekend, I think the pattern relaxes some and we warm back up to 50s/60s for most and the pattern resets again around the holidays. I think that is a good summary. I see the relaxation mid month also showing up on all the models. Kinda stinks as the wife and I will be in the moutains for our annual pre-Christmas trip the 14-18. Of course, this week's warmup never materialized so who knows what will happen in 2 weeks. One thing seems certain, there will some super cold air in the Northern Hemisphere. That's always the first thing I look for... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 35 minutes ago, Met1985 said: This pattern is complex and the models are not doing a great job with it at all. Agree. Weak PV from Strat probably part of it. Ryan Maue thinks a full Split is still coming. Also, if the blocking upstream Models are suggesting coming up is right then there will probably be a deeper dive of the Cold into the SE than being shown. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: My perspective on the next few weeks- Thursday night/Friday overrunning is the one to watch. Gotta get that northern stream to calm down to allow the southern energy to amplify enough to bring in moisture. The earlier it comes in the better. After that threat, the northern stream looks to be dominant for the next week or so with mostly clipper type systems and at or below average temps for most of the Carolinas. We would need one of those to dig far enough south to bring areas outside of the mountains any snow. After about next weekend, I think the pattern relaxes some and we warm back up to 50s/60s for most and the pattern resets again around the holidays. I get why you're thinking maybe a relaxation after the 15th. However, I think the MJO in cold Phase along with possible upstream blocking should curtail any significant warmup mid late month. If anything, may get a deeper dive of the PJ and Cold. The PAC Jet may try to mitigate the Effects of the above mentioned as it may dampen the -EPO but, the MJO and -NAO should still keep troughing in the East. Just my Antique 2 Cents worth. Of course, if the -NAO is not still there or robust then a milder outcome. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 18z ICON showing a little snow love for southern and SW VA Friday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 18z GFS gets the precip in to late. The cold is gone taken verbatim for the Friday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago We just can’t buck this years long trend of fast flow northern stream dominance can we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Euro does it again for 18z! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Just now, BooneWX said: Euro does it again for 18z! Was just about to post about it. 18z Euro. Not a huge system by any means but its something to watch 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 6 hours ago Author Share Posted 6 hours ago 29 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Was just about to post about it. 18z Euro. Not a huge system by any means but its something to watch Need the first wave to take over and come in quicker for more frozen precip like the Euro shows. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 18z GFS has some fantasy cold Dec 17. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 5 hours ago Author Share Posted 5 hours ago 11 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Yep NW flow. Mountains could get some clipper snow but cold and windy for most 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago This winter season reminds me of 1999-2000. A bunch of storms that head north early then the big one Jan 25, 2000. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago My old stomping ground, Lynchburg, VA is currently 28/24. I think they will get a little more freezing rain than expected. Nobody talks about in situation Cold Air Daming east of the mountains anymore. It's hard to break just east of the mountains. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago UK is quite amped with the Friday system and has ice for WNC and some snow in VA. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted 55 minutes ago Share Posted 55 minutes ago 0z Euro AI for Friday/Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 42 minutes ago Author Share Posted 42 minutes ago Euro is more amped as well but too warm for most of NC but some ice in CAD regions. Some snow in VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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