Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[BooneWX]

It’ll be interesting to see if we continue to trend stronger overnight on the CAD. Rn I’d say this event favors snow in VA and an ice storm with a possible front end thump for those along and north of I-85 in NC. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[BooneWX]

Bleh. Northern stream doing northern stream things.

[WNC_Fort]

Us foothill folks heard about the northern stream a lot last year. More of the same. Cold rain or cool/dry. Never any snow for us.

[NorthHillsWx]

Cold seems to be backing off for tonight’s system in CAD areas. See WWA hoisted for a lot of mountain/foothills areas but icing looks extremely limited now

[wncsnow]

Euro with a little hope Friday morning?

[BooneWX]

A little strung out on the Euro and flat but objectively hilarious to see it show snow just as other models fall off the wagon. 

[wncsnow]

I think the models are having trouble keying on which piece of energy to focus on being the main show. It has an overrunning look to me if we can get that CAD to build in stronger. I like the early wave being stronger as the cold is closer then. If it waits until Friday night/Saturday it will likely be ZR or cold rain. 

[wncsnow]

My perspective on the next few weeks-

Thursday night/Friday overrunning is the one to watch. Gotta get that northern stream to calm down to allow the southern energy to amplify enough to bring in moisture. The earlier it comes in the better. 

After that threat, the northern stream looks to be dominant for the next week or so with mostly clipper type systems and at or below average temps for most of the Carolinas. We would need one of those to dig far enough south to bring areas outside of the mountains any snow. 

After about next weekend, I think the pattern relaxes some and we warm back up to 50s/60s for most and the pattern resets again around the holidays.  

[olafminesaw]

26 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I think the models are having trouble keying on which piece of energy to focus on being the main show. It has an overrunning look to me if we can get that CAD to build in stronger. I like the early wave being stronger as the cold is closer then. If it waits until Friday night/Saturday it will likely be ZR or cold rain. 

Yep, fits well with the rule of thumb that the GFS is often too progressive. One thing we have working for us for once is the northern stream is not going to become dominant with this one

[Met1985]

59 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I think the models are having trouble keying on which piece of energy to focus on being the main show. It has an overrunning look to me if we can get that CAD to build in stronger. I like the early wave being stronger as the cold is closer then. If it waits until Friday night/Saturday it will likely be ZR or cold rain. 

This pattern is complex and the models are not doing a great job with it at all.

[BooneWX]

Let’s see if we can wish one of these into existence for Friday @wncsnow


.

[Upstate Tiger]

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

My perspective on the next few weeks-

Thursday night/Friday overrunning is the one to watch. Gotta get that northern stream to calm down to allow the southern energy to amplify enough to bring in moisture. The earlier it comes in the better. 

After that threat, the northern stream looks to be dominant for the next week or so with mostly clipper type systems and at or below average temps for most of the Carolinas. We would need one of those to dig far enough south to bring areas outside of the mountains any snow. 

After about next weekend, I think the pattern relaxes some and we warm back up to 50s/60s for most and the pattern resets again around the holidays.  

I think that is a good summary.  I see the relaxation mid month also showing up on all the models.  Kinda stinks as the wife and I will be in the moutains for our annual pre-Christmas trip the 14-18.  Of course, this week's warmup never materialized so who knows what will happen in 2 weeks.  One thing seems certain, there will some super cold air in the Northern Hemisphere.  That's always the first thing I look for...

[Daniel Boone]

35 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

This pattern is complex and the models are not doing a great job with it at all.

Agree. Weak PV from Strat probably part of it. Ryan Maue thinks a full Split is still coming. Also, if the blocking upstream Models are suggesting coming up is right then there will probably be a deeper dive of the Cold into the SE than being shown.

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

My perspective on the next few weeks-

Thursday night/Friday overrunning is the one to watch. Gotta get that northern stream to calm down to allow the southern energy to amplify enough to bring in moisture. The earlier it comes in the better. 

After that threat, the northern stream looks to be dominant for the next week or so with mostly clipper type systems and at or below average temps for most of the Carolinas. We would need one of those to dig far enough south to bring areas outside of the mountains any snow. 

After about next weekend, I think the pattern relaxes some and we warm back up to 50s/60s for most and the pattern resets again around the holidays.  

 I get why you're thinking maybe a relaxation after the 15th. However, I think the MJO in cold Phase along with possible upstream blocking should curtail any significant warmup mid late month. If anything, may get a deeper dive of the PJ and Cold. The PAC Jet may try to mitigate the Effects of the above mentioned as it may dampen the -EPO but, the MJO and -NAO should still keep troughing in the East. Just my Antique 2 Cents worth. Of course, if the -NAO is not still there or robust then a milder outcome.