NC US Geological Survice Posted Tuesday at 06:35 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:35 PM Mods, time to throttle this guy. We are likely within 10 days of significant effects to land in the NW Atl Basin. The seriousness has elevated and the maturity in the thread needs to step up. 5 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Tuesday at 06:48 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 06:48 PM I post model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Tuesday at 06:51 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:51 PM 15 minutes ago, NC US Geological Survice said: Mods, time to throttle this guy. We are likely within 10 days of significant effects to land in the NW Atl Basin. The seriousness has elevated and the maturity in the thread needs to step up. You can also choose to ignore certain posters in your profile settings. It has proven helpful on this site more than once. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Tuesday at 06:54 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:54 PM Barry obviously loves weather. He doesn't bother me. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Tuesday at 06:54 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 06:54 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Tuesday at 07:05 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 07:05 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Tuesday at 07:19 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 07:19 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighNC Posted Tuesday at 07:50 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:50 PM great time to reduce staff at the NHC and reduce Hunter flights, huh? 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted Tuesday at 08:14 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:14 PM 23 minutes ago, RaleighNC said: great time to reduce staff at the NHC and reduce Hunter flights, huh? Trump’s proposed budget for fiscal 2026 does not appear to target the Hurricane Hunter program. Staff also can be moved as needed, just like any other job that exists 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted Tuesday at 10:59 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:59 PM 3 hours ago, RaleighNC said: great time to reduce staff at the NHC and reduce Hunter flights, huh? Maybe the NHC can hire Barry to keep them up to date via all the social media post about Hurricanes. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted Tuesday at 11:48 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:48 PM Thank you Barry! Not all heroes wear capes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago I think we see a major hurricane in the Atlantic sometime later this month, and likely a threat to land masses of the Caribbean or Western Atlantic. The MJO pattern looks set to give us a good burst just in time for late August. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 5 hours ago, Floydbuster said: I think we see a major hurricane in the Atlantic sometime later this month, and likely a threat to land masses of the Caribbean or Western Atlantic. The MJO pattern looks set to give us a good burst just in time for late August. Let’s see how the next two waves preform. If they develop and help moisten the mdr its game time. Until then it’s follow the vertical instability to the subtropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago The latest Euro Weeklies (yesterday’s run) remain quite active vs active 20 year climo base ACE (>200%) through ~8/24. Then they cool down to close to active avg 8/25-31 (100%). The first stab at 9/1-7 is slightly below the active climo (80%). I wonder if this is MJO related. Regarding absolute ACE, the very active Aug 18-24 is the most active week through Sept 7. As per what I’ve recently posted, the EW progs did fairly well in general last year overall looking out several weeks when they were consistent for, say, 7 days in a row. They’ve been consistent regarding well above 20 year climo levels of activity for 8/11-8/24 for at least that long. Regarding 8/25-31, they’ve been near that 20 year climo for 3 runs. So, I still want to see how the rest of this week’s runs look before giving too much weight to its 8/25-31. Of course, 9/1-7 is a total crap-shoot right now with that slightly below 20 year climo being just its first prog. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago CSU 8/6/25 update: 145 total ACE vs 140 in last month’s forecast and 122, which is 1991-2020 avg, and the new Euro seasonal’s ~155: FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2025 We have maintained our forecast for a slightly above-normal 2025 Atlantic basin hurricane season, although noting lower-than-normal confidence with this outlook. Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic have anomalously warmed over the past few weeks and are now somewhat warmer than normal. Multiple indicators anticipate likely cool ENSO neutral conditions during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. Warm sea surface temperatures and ENSO neutral conditions typically provide a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification. The primary reason for the uncertainty in the outlook is the high observed Caribbean shear over recent weeks. Typically, high levels of Caribbean shear in June July are associated with less active hurricane seasons. We anticipate a slightly above- average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean for the remainder of the hurricane season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AStorms13 Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago I know it doesn't mean much since its 2 weeks out, but holy hell the most recent Ensemble lit up like crazy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 6 hours ago Author Share Posted 6 hours ago Caribbeans me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 5 hours ago Author Share Posted 5 hours ago MJO forecasts wave propagation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 5 hours ago Author Share Posted 5 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 5 hours ago Author Share Posted 5 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 4 hours ago Author Share Posted 4 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 4 hours ago Author Share Posted 4 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 4 hours ago Author Share Posted 4 hours ago GFS shows "Fernand" and "Gabrielle" as twins ("Erin" is shown as a weaker storm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 4 hours ago Author Share Posted 4 hours ago bob saar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago This run shows "Gabrielle" and "Humberto" on ket at the very end of the GIF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago You know what? It’s 2025. Let’s do this. Let’s push FEMA and the NWS to their breaking points and see how that goes. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago 18 minutes ago, TriPol said: You know what? It’s 2025. Let’s do this. Let’s push FEMA and the NWS to their breaking points and see how that goes. "You need to provide your ID to view this content" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 18 minutes ago, TriPol said: You know what? It’s 2025. Let’s do this. Let’s push FEMA and the NWS to their breaking points and see how that goes. lmao you beat me to it! I was about to post this hahah. Day After Tomorrow Vibes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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